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Indonesia’s current account deficit is expected to widen to the range of 3.30 – 3.40 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2018, above the 3.0 percent of GDP threshold that is usually considered to separate a sustainable from an unsustainable deficit.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its benchmark interest rate (the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate) unchanged at 5.75 percent at the October 2018 policy meeting (22-23 October). Meanwhile, the deposit facility and lending facility rates were kept at 5.00 percent and 6.50 percent, respectively.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) raised its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75 percent at the two-day policy meeting that was concluded on Thursday (26-27 September 2018). Also the deposit facility and lending facility rates were raised by 25 bps to 5.00 percent and 6.50 percent, respectively.
The central bank of Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.50 percent at the August 2018 policy meeting. The decision was in line with our expectations as heavy pressures have been affecting the rupiah after the collapse of the Turkish lira.
In line with expectations the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark interest rate (the 7-day Reverse Repo Rate) at 5.25 percent at the two-day July policy meeting (concluded on Thursday 19 July 2018). Meanwhile, the deposit facility and lending facility rates were kept at 4.50 percent and 6.00 percent, respectively.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) hiked its benchmark interest rate three times over the past six weeks - by a total of 1.00 percent to take the benchmark to the level of 5.25 percent - in order to defend the rupiah. Last Friday (27/06) Bank Indonesia surprised part of the market by implementing a 0.50 percent rate hike. As a result, the rupiah strengthened markedly. However, its impact on the rupiah performance seems very temporary. This week the rupiah is again depreciating, hovering around the IDR 14,400 per US dollar level.
Indonesia's manufacturing activity continued to expand in June 2018 albeit at a lower level compared to the preceding month. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined from a reading of 51.7 in May to 50.3 in June (slightly above the 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction in the manufacturing sector). Slower rises in both output and new orders were key reasons that explain the month-on-month decline.
As we had predicted this morning, Bank Indonesia decided to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.25 percent at the two-day June policy meeting that was concluded earlier today. Presumably markets had been expecting a 25 bps rate hike (therefore being priced in already) and therefore the central bank of Indonesia possibly felt it had to take a more aggressive approach to defend the Indonesian rupiah that had weakened beyond the IDR 14,400 per US dollar level.
The Indonesian rupiah continues to slide on Friday (29/06) and is now hovering around the IDR 14,400 per US dollar level. The weak rupiah reaffirms analysts' expectations of seeing another interest rate hike. Today, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will conclude its June policy meeting. But perhaps the crucial question is not "will Bank Indonesia raise its benchmark rate?" Possibly the more crucial questions are "by how much will it raise its rate?" and "what other policies will it implement to strengthen rupiah stability as well as financial stability?"
Earlier this week, Wednesday 27 June 2018 was declared a public national holiday by the Indonesian government through Presidential Decision No. 48/2018. Reason being the local elections that are held in 171 regions across Indonesia. A free day would provide more opportunities for workers to cast their vote. Earlier, the Indonesia Stock Exchange had already confirmed that it would operate as usual on this regional election day.
Latest Columns Monetary Policy
In line with expectations Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark reference rate - the BI 7-Day (Reverse) Repo Rate - at 4.75 percent at Thursday's policy meeting (17/11). This decision was made amid the high degree of uncertainty in global financial markets (triggered by the 2016 US presidential election) and stable domestic conditions (low inflation and an improving current account deficit). The high degree of volatility does cause major pressures on the rupiah and therefore Bank Indonesia will continue to stabilize exchange rates through intervention in markets.
On September 22, 2016, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to cut its BI seven-day repo rate from 5.25 percent to 5.00 percent, and this has changed parts of the long-term outlook for investors. Bank Indonesia also reduced its lending rate to 5.75 percent (from previous 5.50 percent), and the deposit rate to 4.50 percent (from previous 4.75 percent previously). This is significant because it shows that lending rates and interest rates have dropped to multi-year lows with the current policy changes.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) cut its benchmark BI 7-day Reverse Repo rate (RR rate) by 25 basis points to 5 percent at the policy meeting that was concluded on Thursday (22/09). The lender of last resort also cut the Deposit and Lending Facility rates¹ by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. Given the stable domestic economy, Bank Indonesia is able to allow a loser monetary policy hence providing more room for accelerated economic growth amid a still uncertain global economic context.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has made some important decisions under the current Governor Agus Martowardojo. Here, Bank Indonesia has been directed toward achieving the responsibility of making financial decisions that promote consumer price stability over the long-term. This has resulted in widespread gains in the rupiah against a basket of world currencies -- including the US dollar. But recent rate cuts now have the potential to reverse these broader trends.
This week the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is set to adopt the seven-day reverse repurchase rate (reverse repo) as the nation's new benchmark monetary tool at the August policy meeting (18/19 August), thus replacing the existing BI rate that is considered too weak to have an immediate and significant impact on Indonesia's borrowing costs and market liquidity. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo informed that the central bank has been holding road shows to financial centers across the nation (and abroad) to provide detailed information about the new benchmark.
At its latest monthly policy meeting the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its interest rate regime unchanged with the benchmark BI rate at 6.50 percent (this month the bank is set to adopt the seven-day reverse repurchase rate - reverse repo - as the new benchmark rate). Bank Indonesia's decision to leave interest rates unchanged was a surprise move given that the nation's inflation is low, the rupiah is strengthening, but overall economic growth has remained sluggish. This context would actually justify a moderate interest rate cut of 25 basis points.
Contrary to expectations, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its monetary policy unchanged at the July policy meeting. The benchmark interest rate (BI rate) was kept at 6.50 percent, while the deposit facility rate and lending facility rate were kept at 4.50 percent and 7.00 percent, respectively. The 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which is set to become the central bank's new benchmark on 19 August 2016 - replacing the BI rate - was left at 5.25 percent.
In the first three policy meetings of 2016, Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) cut its benchmark BI rate gradually yet aggressively from 7.50 percent to 6.75 percent as inflation, the rupiah rate and Indonesia's current account deficit were regarded as 'under control'. At the same time, Indonesia's lender of last resort acknowledged the BI rate has failed to influence borrowing costs and market liquidity effectively and therefore decided to adopt the seven-day reverse repurchase rate (reverse repo) as the nation's new benchmark starting from August 2016.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) revised down its projection for Indonesia's economic growth in 2016 to the range of 5.0 - 5.4 percent (y/y), slightly below its previous forecast in the range of 5.2 - 5.6 percent (y/y). Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said the central bank decided to trim its projection for gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year due to sluggish global economic growth, low commodity prices, and Indonesia's slightly disappointing Q1-2016 GDP growth figure at 4.92 percent (y/y).
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on Friday (15/04) it will adopt a new monetary tool per 19 August 2016 that is to replace the existing BI rate which is considered too inefficient to influence market liquidity as it is not directly tied to Indonesia's money markets. The seven-day reverse repurchase rate (reverse repo), which stood at 5.50 percent in the central bank's last auction, is to become the nation's new benchmark. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo, who communicated through a teleconference from Washington DC, emphasized that the central bank will not change its monetary stance.
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