Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki), informed that Indonesia's exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives (including biodiesel and oleo-chemicals) reached 1.74 million tons in July 2016, down around 8 percent from the 1.89 million tons that were exported one month earlier. The decline in exports is attributed to rising CPO consumption at home and easing demand in several key export markets.

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Production of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia is expected to decline 5 percent (y/y) to 29.6 million tons from a realization of 31.2 million tons in the preceding year. At the start of the year the Agriculture Ministry of Indonesia targeted CPO output around 31-32 million tons in full-year 2016. However, lower-than-targeted CPO production is the result of a looming strong La Nina weather phenomenon (which brings wetter-than-usual conditions to Southeast Asia) and the strong El Nino earlier this year (bringer droughts to Southeast Asia).

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Stakeholders in the crude palm oil (CPO) industry of Indonesia are pleased seeing the CPO price rising considerably over the past couple of weeks to around 2,500 ringgit (approx. USD $623) per metric ton this week after palm oil futures - traded in Kuala Lumpur - had in fact entered a bear market in July 2016. Meanwhile, the World Bank expects palm oil prices to average USD $650 per ton in 2016, better than USD $623 per ton in 2015 but still a long shot away from USD $851 per ton in 2013 or the peak at USD $1,248 per ton in February 2011.

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Several days ago we reported that Indonesia plans to issue a five-year moratorium on new palm oil plantation concessions in August 2016 through a presidential regulation. This moratorium aims to safeguard a healthy and sustainable environment and may also aim at reducing global criticism on Indonesia's weak governance after the devastating forest fires on Kalimantan and Sumatra as well as the spread of toxic haze to other parts of Southeast Asia between June and October 2015. A government official now says the moratorium also covers existing concessions.

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The government of Indonesia plans to issue a five-year moratorium on new palm oil plantation concessions through a presidential instruction. For Indonesian President Joko Widodo it is one of the top priorities to safeguard a healthy and sustainable environment, especially after international criticism on Indonesia's weak environmental policies heightened due to the flaring up of devastating forest fires on Kalimantan and Sumatra as well as the spread of toxic haze to other parts of Southeast Asia between June and October 2015.

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A study published in Scientific Reports, conducted by scientists at King’s College London in cooperation with the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), says the forest fires on the Indonesian islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan that occurred between June and October 2015 released some 11.3 million tons of carbon each day (a figure that exceeds the 8.9 million tons of daily carbon emissions in the European Union). Last year's man-made forest fires and haze in Indonesia are among the worst natural disasters ever recorded.

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An official at Indonesia's Trade Ministry said Southeast Asia's largest economy is to scrap the export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) again. In July 2016 the export tax will be lowered to zero, from USD $3 per ton in the preceding month, due to sliding palm oil prices. The Indonesian government expects palm oil prices to fall in July because after the Ramadan month and subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations are finished demand for the edible is set to decline.

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Indonesian Vice President Jusuf Kalla stated that he does not agree with Singapore's attempts to take legal action against those Indonesian individuals and companies that are responsible for the forest fires on the islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan that resulted in the severe haze that spread to Singapore (and other parts of Southeast Asia) in 2015. The toxic smog caused economic costs in Indonesia's neighboring countries. Kalla said Indonesia will not support Singapore in this case as the offense occurred in Indonesia, not in Singapore. As such, it would be an attack on Indonesia's sovereignty.

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San Francisco-based environmental organization Rainforest Action Network (RAN) released a report last week that claims Indonesian workers - including children - at North Sumatran palm oil plantations are being exploited. On two palm oil plantations owned by PP London Sumatra Indonesia, a unit of the Indonesian Indofood Group, researchers of RAN found evidence of child labor, unethically low wages, as well as other forms of worker exploitation. The report also links American multinational food and beverage firm PepsiCo Inc's products to the exploitation.

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Palm oil shipments from Indonesia surged 20 percent month-on-month to 2.09 million tons in April 2016 (from 1.74 million tons in the preceding month) according to the latest data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki). Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director of Gapki, said Indonesia's palm oil exports are supported by declining edible oil output in several countries. High rainfall in Argentina and Brazil disturbed local soy bean harvests, while the US soybean harvest is weak as well. Furthermore, rapeseed harvests in China, India and the European Union are weak too, hence boosting demand for CPO.

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The recovery in global palm oil prices that seemed to have started last spring, has ended. A few months ago, optimism had colored expectations of many analysts as palm oil prices went up about 10 percent between early May and mid-June, after tumbling 30 percent in 2012 (causing that palm oil was one of the worst performing commodities in terms of price growth last year). However, the palm oil price increase earlier this year was merely the result of falling production rates in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's largest palm oil producers.

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The price of crude palm oil (CPO), which has been under downward pressure for a long time as global turmoil lingers on, started to rebound due to falling stockpiles in Indonesia and Malaysia. Reserves of the commodity fell because of weather conditions and because of an increase in demand ahead of the Islamic fasting month (Ramadhan). The price of crude palm oil is expected to hit the USD $900 per ton mark in late 2013, up from USD $828-865 per ton in May and June. This price recovery is expected to continue.

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Indonesia's trade balance recorded another deficit in April 2013 as imports (USD $16.31 billion) exceeded exports (USD $14.70 billion). April's trade deficit, amounting to USD $1.62 billion, was mainly due to continued weak commodity exports in combination with strong oil, basic machinery and utensils imports. After five consecutive months of deficits up to February, Indonesia’s trade account reported a surplus of USD $330 million in March, but fell back into deficit in April. From January to April, Indonesia's trade deficit stands at USD $1.85 billion.

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Last week, president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono extended the moratorium on new permits to convert natural forests and peat lands for a further two years. In 2011, Indonesia's government signed the two-year primary forest moratorium that came into effect on 20 May 2011 and expired in May 2013. This moratorium implies a temporary stop to the granting of new permits to clear rain forests and peat lands in the country. The moratorium particularly aims to limit Indonesia's quickly expanding palm oil industry.

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Although the United States continues its traditional focus on direct investments in developed countries, primarily in Western Europe, there has been a significant rise in US investments in Indonesia in recent years. Whereas US investments in the developed economies of Western Europe is mostly found in the financial sector and through holding companies, in developing Asia, the US is more focused on the manufacturing sector due to lower production costs. In the last two years, the US emerged as the second-largest investor in Indonesia after Japan.

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Shareholders of Astra Agro Lestari, Indonesia's largest agribusiness company by value (which is particularly engaged in palm oil and rubber plantations), agreed to distribute IDR 1.08 trillion (USD $111 million) in dividends to its shareholders. The allocated amount is equivalent to about 45 percent of the company's net profit in 2012. Dividend per share is set at IDR 685 (USD $0.071). Last November, the company had already paid interim dividend of IDR 230 per share. Final dividend will be paid on 3 June 2013.

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Indonesian companies engaged in the production of a variety of agricultural products, such as palm oil, experienced a rather poor year in 2012 regarding net profit. Global economic turmoil has reduced the world's consumption of palm oil in both the developed markets and developing markets. In particular decreased demand from China, the world’s biggest buyer after India, made a negative impact on the balance sheets of Indonesian companies.

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