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Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the healthcare industry of Indonesia rose steeply in the first half of 2017 after the government opened up the general hospital sector to foreign investment by revising the Negative Investment List (in Indonesian: Daftar Negatif Investasi) in 2016.
After macroeconomic growth was rather disappointing at 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2017, the Indonesian government will soon release a new economic policy package, specifically aimed at boosting investment in Indonesia. However, Indonesia's business world urge the government to first evaluate the effectiveness of preceding policy packages before implementing a new deregulation package. Moreover, some say it would be better to focus on improving confidence among consumers.
Giant venture capital firm Wavemaker Partners is setting up a new fund with Indonesia being a key market. The new USD $50 million fund will focus on 80 early-stage technology startups in Southeast Asia (particularly business-to-business ventures). Wavemaker Partners is part of the Draper Venture Network, a leading global venture capital collective with ten funds spread across four continents.
Thomas Lembong, Head of the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), said he wants Indonesia to tap the momentum of the recent "One Belt, One Road" summit in Beijing (China), organized earlier this month, by promoting three Indonesian provinces to foreign investors as a great investment destination. These three provinces are North Sumatra, North Kalimantan, and North Sulawesi.
After Standard & Poor's (S&P) assigned investment grade status to Indonesia's sovereign rating, hence boosting positive perceptions about the Indonesian economy, the government should use this momentum to encourage public and private investment to push macroeconomic growth to the targeted range of 5.4 - 6.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2018.
Investment in Indonesia's oil and gas sector remained bleak in the first quarter of 2017. The key reason why oil and gas companies are still reluctant to invest in any exploration and expansion projects is the low crude oil price that remains below the USD $50 per barrel level. In Q1-2017 investment in Indonesia's oil and gas sector fell 4.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $2.57 billion. Indonesia's upstream oil and gas regulator SKK Migas targets to attract a total of USD $12.87 billion worth of investment in the oil and gas sector in 2017.
Indonesia's Financial Services Authority (OJK) warns domestic and foreign investors about the presence of unclear, sometimes even illegal, online platforms or companies that offer lucrative investment opportunities. In the first two months of 2017 the OJK already forced the closure of 19 illegal platforms and companies as they were considered harmful for the consumer or investor. Several of these 19 obscure entities do not even have a clear address.
Investment in Indonesia is expected to rise in 2017. This covers both direct investment and portfolio investment. Domestic direct investment (DDI) should grow on the back of Indonesia's low interest rate environment (making it cheaper for domestic investors to purchase credit) as well as higher capital injections (from the state budget) into Indonesia's state-owned enterprises. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to rise on the back of Indonesia's accelerating economic growth and government reforms. Both FDI and DDI should also rise amid rising commodity prices.
Indonesia's Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) has released the direct investment figures - both foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic direct investment (DDI) - for the fourth quarter of 2016 (implying we now also know the full-year 2016 figures). The BKPM data show a number of interesting developments that we outline below.
Investment realization in Indonesia's capital city of Jakarta fell to IDR 51.2 trillion (approx. USD $3.8 billion) in full-year 2016, down from IDR 55 trillion worth of investment in the preceding year. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Jakarta was recorded at IDR 41.5 trillion in 2016, while domestic direct investment (DDI) reached IDR 9.7 trillion. What explains this overall decline of investment in Jakarta?
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After Indonesia’s political year of 2014 ended, financial institutions expect to experience better times in 2015. Last year, economic growth of Indonesia slowed to a five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y) due to weak exports, the high domestic interest rate environment, and political uncertainties caused by Indonesia’s legislative and presidential elections. This year, however, economic growth is expected to accelerate - albeit slightly - implying stronger purchasing power. One of the businesses that will profit is mutual fund management.
At the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, organized in Jakarta on 15-16 January 2015, Bank Indonesia official Arief Mahmud presented several views of the central bank on the current Indonesian economy and the global and domestic challenges that it faces. As is widely known, Indonesia has been experiencing a process of slowing economic growth since 2011 due to sluggish global economic growth in combination with the rebalancing of the domestic economy. However, growth is expected to accelerate in 2015.
The Indonesian government admits that it is difficult to achieve the 5.5 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth target that was set in the Revised 2014 State Budget (APBN-P 2014). In fact, Deputy Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that Southeast Asia’s largest economy will have to work hard to reach +5.3 percentage point GDP growth this year. “We have to be realistic. Hopefully GDP growth will improve in the second half of 2014 to a level of 5.3 percent. The current forecast for GDP growth in 2014 is 5.2-5.3 percent,” he said.
On Monday (23/06), the World Bank released its latest analysis regarding the Indonesian economy. In its report, titled ‘Indonesia: Avoiding the Trap’, the World Bank states that Indonesia needs to implement a six reforms in priority areas in order to avoid the so-called middle income trap (referring to the situation where a country gets stuck at a certain income level). Without these critical reforms, the country’s economic growth will slow and may not be able to escape the middle income trap.
Chairman of Indonesia's Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) Suryo Bambang Sulisto stated that the most crucial problem which Indonesia is facing currently as well as in the foreseeable future is unemployment. Sulisto said that while the population of Indonesia has grown continuously in the past decade, unaffected by family planning programs, employment opportunities have not grown accordingly. In fact, they have declined. At end-2013, Indonesia's unemployment rate stood at 6.3 percent (of the total labor force).
The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) said that total realized investments in Indonesia in the third quarter of 2013 was recorded at IDR 100.5 trillion (USD $8.89 billion). Of this total figure, IDR 67.0 trillion (USD $5.93 billion) was accounted for by foreign direct investment (FDI), while the remainder (IDR 33.5 trillion) was classified as domestic direct investment (DDI). The total investment realization of IDR 100.5 trillion was the highest ever quarterly investment figure since the BKPM releases these quarterly results.
The slowdown of Indonesia's economic growth is expected to continue into the third quarter of 2013. The Indonesian government predicts that economic growth will fall below the GDP growth figure realized in the second quarter (5.8 percent). Acting Head of the Fiscal Policy Agency Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that the main factor that causes the country's slowing economic growth in Q3-2013 is reduced household consumption. Domestic consumption in Indonesia accounts for about 55 percent of the country's GDP growth.
Growth of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in Indonesia has continued to slow down in the first six months of 2013. In the first quarter of 2013, GFCF rose 5.78 percent but in the second quarter the pace fell to 4.67 percent. These results are much lower than last year's quarterly growth rates as can be seen in the table below. In fact, the growth rate in Q2-2013 constitutes the lowest growth rate in the last 13 quarters. In Q2-2013, all sectors experienced weakening investments except for domestic machinery and equipment.
Investment realization in Indonesia grew 30.2 percent to IDR 192.8 trillion (USD $19.8 billion) in the first six months of 2013 (compared to the same period last year). This result implies that 49.4 percent of the investment target for full 2013 has been achieved. The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) aims to collect IDR 390.3 trillion in investments this year. This target is divided in domestic direct investment (DDI) of IDR 117.7 trillion and foreign direct investment (FDI) of IDR 272.6 trillion.
Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects that economic growth of Indonesia in 2013 will not meet the government's target as has been set in the revised State Budget (APNB-P). Last month, both government and parliament of Indonesia agreed on a revised GDP growth assumption of 6.3 percent. However, Bank Indonesia believes that, due to slowing domestic consumption and investments in the current global economic context, the growth is more likely to fall between 5.8 and 6.2 percent.
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