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Ina Primiana, Senior Economist at the Centre of Reform on Economics (CORE), is a bit pessimistic about Indonesia's economic growth in 2017. She sees gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 5.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) this year as commodity prices and the retail sector fail to encourage higher growth.
Despite accelerated macroeconomic growth of Indonesia so far in 2017, people's purchasing power remains bleak. However, a number of Indonesian businessmen remain confident that Indonesia's economic conditions will improve in the second half of the year.
Darmin Nasution, Indonesia's Coordinating Economic Affairs Minister, is optimistic that gross domestic product (GDP) of Southeast Asia's largest economy can expand between 5.1 and 5.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2017.
Perry Warjiyo, Deputy Governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), believes Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter of 2017 will not be as high as earlier predicted because there has been a correction in Indonesia's export performance.
Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that the nation's official gross domestic product (GDP) edged up to a growth pace of 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2017. This figure is in line with analysts' forecasts and constitutes the third consecutive year of accelerating economic growth of Indonesia in the first quarter. In Q1-2015 and Q1-2016 GDP growth was recorded at 4.71 percent (y/y) and 4.92 percent (y/y), respectively.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be below earlier estimates in both the first and second quarters of 2017. However, the lender of last resort remains optimistic that Indonesia's full-year economic growth can reach a pace of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y), accelerating from 5.02 percent (y/y) in the preceding year.
Despite the improving export performance (supported by improving commodity prices), it may be difficult for Indonesia to deliver +5 percent year-on-year (y/y) gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2017. Main reason is subdued consumer purchasing power due to higher electricity tariffs in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Therefore, economic growth of Indonesia is expected to be rather similar to the 4.92 percent (y/y) growth pace recorded in Q1-2016.
Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati believes economic growth of Indonesia in 2017 can exceed the target that was set by the central government in the state budget. While the official target in the 2017 State Budget was set at 5.1 percent year-on-year (y/y), Sri Mulyani expects to see the growth rate at 5.2 percent (y/y) on the back of rising consumption and investment, while she predicts an end to the trend of falling imports and exports.
Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2016. Although the figure is higher compared to the revised 4.88 percent (y/y) growth pace that was recorded in the preceding year (hence effectively ending the nation's economic slowdown that occurred in the years 2011-2015), the slow pace of acceleration may disappoint part of the investor and analyst communities.
UBS Investment Bank is less positive about Indonesia's economic growth in 2017 compared to most other institutions. The global financial services company, with its headquarters in Switzerland, expects to see the Indonesian economy growing by 4.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2017. Edward Teather, Senior Economist for ASEAN and India at UBS, says the year 2017 is a year of adjustment and balancing for Southeast Asia's largest economy, while the role of fiscal support toward GDP growth is also seen declining this year. He added that 2018 will be the year in which Indonesia should see strongly accelerating economic growth.
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Indonesian real estate developer Bumi Serpong Damai could be one of the country's property developers that benefits the most from an improving Indonesian economy in 2016 due to the firm's availability of land reserves in a number of regions. Purchasing power is expected to accelerate, authorities eager to boost mortgage lending, a possible BI rate cut somewhere in 2016, while many - among the young and large population - will buy their first house or apartment in the next couple of years.
An Indonesian analyst says the Indonesian government needs to increase efforts to boost people's purchasing power in order to achieve the government's economic growth target of 5.3 percent in 2016. Household consumption in Indonesia accounts for about 55 percent of the nation's total gross domestic product (GDP) growth. As such, if purchasing power continues to weaken, then the economic slowdown returns. The analyst suggests the government should consider to cut personal and corporate income taxes, delay the electricity tariff hike for 900 VA households, and lower fuel prices.
Indonesia's economic performance in the third quarter of 2015 was a bit disappointing as the 4.73 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth pace in Q3-2015 was slightly below market expectations at 4.8 percent (y/y). On a positive note, however, Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated from the six-year low of 4.67 percent (y/y) in the preceding quarter. A look at the table below shows that Indonesia's third quarter GDP growth rarely outpaces growth in the second quarter. This is a hopeful sign indeed.
Both Morgan Stanley and Moody's Investors Service have cast some negative perceptions on the condition of the Indonesian economy. First, American multinational financial services corporation Morgan Stanley released a report in which it stated that the recent rupiah rally will not last (Morgan Stanley maintains its year-end target of IDR 14,000 per US dollar). Then, global credit ratings agency Moody's criticized Indonesia's recently unveiled third policy package in which the government lowers energy prices for local manufacturers in a bid to support the industry.
Global credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia this year from five percent (y/y) to 4.7 percent (y/y) due to the perceived hard landing of China’s economy in combination with sluggish conditions in Japan and the Eurozone. Weak demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and the top trading partner of Indonesia, is expected to continue to plague Indonesian exports and earnings.
Hariyadi Sukamdani, Chairman of the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo), expressed his concern about unemployment in Indonesia, particularly unemployment among the younger generation of Indonesians (aged between 15 and 29). Amid slowing economic growth over the past six years, various industries have been cutting employment. With roughly half of the total population below 30 years of age, Indonesia’s demographic bonus can turn into disaster if this potential workforce fails to obtain employment opportunities.
Amid continued slowing economic growth unemployment in Indonesia increased in February 2015. On Tuesday (05/05), Statistics Indonesia announced that the country’s unemployment rate rose to 5.81 percent, up from 5.70 percent in February last year. However, compared to August 2014 - when unemployment was recorded at 5.94 percent - relative unemployment in Indonesia actually declined. Statistics Indonesia releases data on unemployment twice per year covering the unemployment rate in the months February and August.
Ahead of the release of Indonesia’s official first quarter GDP growth figure (scheduled to be released in the first week of May), Indonesian stocks fell and the rupiah depreciated (slightly) against the US dollar on the back of weak market sentiments that have plagued Indonesian markets over the past week. Most importantly, weaker-than-expected Q1-2015 corporate earnings reports of listed Indonesian blue chips have made market participants concerned that Indonesia’s economic slowdown has continued into the first quarter of 2015.
Within a couple of days Statistics Indonesia (BPS) is scheduled to release Indonesia’s GDP growth figure for the first quarter of 2015. Despite economic growth forecasts for full-year 2015 - both of the Indonesian government and international institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) - signalling a rebound from the five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y) in 2014, various analysts expect to see further slowing economic growth in Q1-2015.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) released a report today (24/03) in which it discusses recent economic developments in Indonesia. According to the report, Indonesia’s economic growth is projected to accelerate over the two years ahead provided that the Indonesian government continues to implement structural policy reforms. Such reforms - which include the acceleration of infrastructure development, reduction of logistical costs, and enhancing budget implementation - should lead to an improvement of the investment climate.
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