There will not be a rebound in the coal industry anytime soon. Indonesia, one of the world's leading (thermal) coal producers and exporters, says the nation's coal output will continue to decline in 2016 and 2017. This continued decline in production is caused by the decision of smaller miners to cease production amid the globe's low coal prices that touched a decade-low earlier this year. There should occur a positive side-effect, however, if miners indeed cut their output and that is upward support for coal prices.

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On 24 April 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve political and economic matters such as Joko Widodo's visit to Europe, the monetary policy of Bank Indonesia, Indonesia's Gini ratio, the palm oil and coal sectors, foreign ownership of property in Indonesia, the problems surrounding infrastructure spending in Indonesia, and more.

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Australia-based BHP Billiton, the multinational firm engaged in copper, iron, gold, and coal mining, is reportedly considering to stop operations at its Indonesian coal mining sites - or even to sell these assets - due to the unattractive outlook for the global coal price. Through a 75 percent stake in IndoMet Coal, BHP Billiton holds seven (long-standing) Coal Contracts of Work (PKP2B) in Central Kalimantan. The company is now conducting a strategic review of all its business operations (including the Indonesian assets) to determine which direction to take.

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Coal shipments between Indonesia and the Philippines are disrupted by the recent series of incidents that occurred in the seas off the coast of the southern Philippines. Two Indonesian coal ports are now (temporarily) disallowing Indonesian ships from transporting coal to the Philippines. Security concerns heightened after members of the militant Al Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf network (based in the southwestern part of the Philippines) captured 18 Indonesians and Malaysians in three separate ship hijackings in recent weeks. It is feared that the waters around the southern Philippines become the new Somalia.

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On 17 April 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve hot topics and economic matters such as an update on GDP growth, Bank Indonesia's new benchmark monetary tool, the palm oil sector, the coal price, the trade balance, an excise tax on plastic items, and more.

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The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) expects the coal price to remain stable around USD $50 per ton in the remainder of 2016. Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (harga batubara acuan, abbreviated HBA), which is set (on a monthly basis) by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, rose 1.4 percent (m/m) to USD $52.32 per ton in April 2016. Since February the HBA has been climbing in three consecutive months. The last time Indonesia's benchmark coal price recorded a three-month gaining streak was in the October-December 2013 period.

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The world's number one privately-owned coal producer, US-based Peabody Energy Corp, filed for bankruptcy protection on Wednesday (13/04) after its debt burden became too high amid recent expansion efforts, a cancelled asset sale, and slumping coal prices. All of the miner's offices and mines will continue operations as usual during the bankruptcy process. The case of Peabody Energy is one of the world's largest ever bankruptcy cases in the commodities sector. Trading of Peabody Energy's shares has been suspended immediately.

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Having been the center of negative attention for quite some years now, Indonesia's coal mining sector has given some room for speculation that conditions will improve. Indonesia's coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and mostly based on the average of global coal prices, rose 1.3 percent (m/m) to USD $51.62 per ton in March 2016. Although it is much too early to start speculating about a sustained rebound, the increase is remarkable as it is the first time in exactly one year that the HBA manages to rise.

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On 13 March 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the performance of Indonesian blue chip stocks, the impact of negative interest rates in the Eurozone, logistics costs, coal mining, crude palm oil, Japanese investment, and more.

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The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) advises the central government to recalculate the amount of coal required for Indonesia's 35,000 MW power plant program. According to APBI, Indonesia does not have enough coal reserves to serve as power source for this ambitious program. The program, launched by President Joko Widodo in 2015, aims to add a total of 35,000 MW to the nation's power capacity by 2019 (about 20,000 MW being coal-fired plants). PriceWaterhouseCoopers states that Indonesia may have depleted its coal reserves by the year 2033.

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After its one-week holiday, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) started in negative territory. The index fell 0.93 percent to 4,597.78 on Monday (12/08) with the country's miscellaneous industry sector and the consumer goods sector leading the fall. It is interesting to note that most Indonesian mining companies showed significantly rising share prices as prices of mining commodities are expected to increase. According to Morgan Stanley, coal imports to India will grow while the global coal price has already reached its lowest point.

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State-owned electricity provider Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) stated that consumption of electricity in Indonesia grew 7.2 percent to 90,48 terawatt hour (twh) in the first six months of 2013 compared to the same period last year. Head of PLN's Commercial Division, Benny Marbun, explained that Indonesia's industrial sector particularly consumed more electricity. Although industrial customers of PLN only grew by 4.5 percent in Semester 1-2013 (YoY), industrial electricity consumption grew 8.3 percent (YoY).

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Indonesia already is a strong trade partner to a number of countries in Europe. Based on data released by Indonesia's Ministry of Trade, the Netherlands and Spain are two European countries that import a considerable amount of Indonesian products and thus are important contributors to Indonesia's trade surplus in the non oil & gas sector. But other European nations, such as Germany and Russia, pressure Indonesia's trade surplus. It indicates that, despite the wide distance, Indonesia and Europe have a close and valuable trade relationship.

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Indonesia's trade balance recorded another deficit in April 2013 as imports (USD $16.31 billion) exceeded exports (USD $14.70 billion). April's trade deficit, amounting to USD $1.62 billion, was mainly due to continued weak commodity exports in combination with strong oil, basic machinery and utensils imports. After five consecutive months of deficits up to February, Indonesia’s trade account reported a surplus of USD $330 million in March, but fell back into deficit in April. From January to April, Indonesia's trade deficit stands at USD $1.85 billion.

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The chairman of the Indonesia Coal Mining Association said that Indonesia's coal exports are expected to increase from 310 million tons in 2012 to 330 million tons in 2013, a 6.5 percent increase. Coal producers have been facing a tough period since July 2008 when global coal demand weakened and triggered volatile - but mostly declining - coal prices ever since. Coal demand from China and India, however, is expected to increase this year.

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