Despite a global drop in piracy incidents in the first half of 2013, Indonesia has experienced a 50 percent surge in pirate attacks to 43 incidents in the same period. Total worldwide pirate attacks in Semester I-2013 fell to 138 cases (from 177). The location where most incidents take place in Indonesia are the waters around the Riau province, particularly around the ports in Dumai and Belawan. "Within Southeast Asia, most of the attacks occur on Indonesian anchorages [not when ships are sailing]" according to the International Maritime Bureau.

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PT Pelabuhan Indonesia II (Indonesia Port Corporation in English but most widely known as Pelindo II), the state-owned enterprise that is involved in port and harbour services in ten Indonesian provinces, will choose its partner for the construction of terminal II and terminal III of the New Priok Port project from a selection of 12 companies. These companies can either opt to join the tender for the construction of one terminal, or, for both terminals together. At the end of the year, the winners of the tenders will be announced.

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Royal HaskoningDHV, a Netherlands-based international project management and engineering consultancy services provider, has won the contract to supervise the construction of the extension of the main port of Jakarta, Tanjung Priok. The contract is part of the New Kalibaru Terminal Development. The first phase includes the development of a new 4.5 million TEUs container terminal which aims to enhance the economic development of Indonesia and will bring Indonesia's port facilities on par with other world-class ports.

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PSA International (the Port of Singapore Authority) is one of the participants in the tender - organized by PT Pelindo II - for the construction of terminal two and three of the Kalibaru New Priok harbour in North Jakarta. According to the Director of Pelindo II, RJ Lino, there are 18 participants in the tender, of which the winner will probably be announced in September 2013. Companies can either opt to join the tender for the construction of both terminals, or, one of the two terminals.

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Indonesia's trade deficit narrowed slightly in January as there has been better demand from developed countries. However, Indonesian exports remain under pressure with persistent weak global demand. Moreover, higher crude oil prices increase the country's import costs. In addition to Indonesia's trade deficit, annual inflation increased to 5.31 percent in February due to rising food prices and higher electricity tariffs.

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On Thursday 12 June 2014 it was decided at the central bank’s Board of Governors’ Meeting to maintain the country’s benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate held at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. This decision is consistent with ongoing efforts to steer inflation back towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce Indonesia’s current account deficit to a more sustainable level.

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Today (02/06), Statistics Indonesia released various important economic data that provide more insight into the state of the Indonesian economy. Two of these indicators - inflation and trade - are discussed in this column. Head of Statistics Indonesia Suryamin announced that inflation in May 2014 rose by 0.16 percent (slightly higher than previously expected), while the April 2014 trade balance of Indonesia recorded a USD $1.96 billion deficit. These data were not well received by the market, evidenced by sharp rupiah depreciation.

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The rate of inflation in March 2014 demonstrated that the ongoing downward trend persists. In the reporting month of March 2014, inflation was recorded at 0.08 percent (month-to-month) or 7.32 percent (year-on-year), down from the rates recorded in the previous two months at 1.07 percent (mtm) or 8.22 percent (yoy) in January and 0.26 percent (mtm) or 7.75 percent (yoy) in February. The declining inflation trend is further evidenced by a lower rate recorded in March 2014 than the historical average over the past six years at 0.24 percent (mtm).

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Although Indonesia is the world's largest archipelago, contains an abundance of commodities and has the world's fourth-largest population, the country's export and import figures are still small compared to the world's leading exporting and importing countries (see table below). There are many - and much smaller - countries that post much more impressive import and export data. In terms of exports, Indonesia is too dependent on commodities (accounting for around 60 percent of all exports) causing problems in times of price downswings.

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Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will reach USD $27.4 billion, equivalent to 3.1 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014. As such, Fitch Ratings' forecast is more pessimistic than forecasts presented by both Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and government. Both these institutions expect to curb the current account deficit below the three percent of GDP mark (a sustainable level). Global investors continue to carefully monitor the deficit.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.14 percent to IDR 11,581 per US dollar on Wednesday based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The currency is now at its strongest level since 25 November 2013 as it regained trust of international investors. In 2013, the rupiah weakened sharply after speculation emerged that the Federal Reserve would scale back its quantitative easing program. In combination with the country's record high current account deficit and high inflation it led to large capital outflows from Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) believes that the USD $430 million trade deficit that was recorded in January 2014 is a normal result taking into account the implementation of the ban on exports of unprocessed minerals (which reduces exports of materials such as copper and nickel) and seasonal trends as exports are always lower in January than in December due the end of winter peak demand for raw materials and ongoing contractual negotiations at the beginning of each year.

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The rate of Indonesian inflation eased in February 2014. Inflation decelerated in February 2014 to 0.26 percent (month-to-month) or 7.75 percent (year-on-year), down from the previous month at 1.07 percent (mtm) or 8.22 percent (yoy) respectively. The drop in the inflation rate is attributable to central and local government policy taken to minimize the second-round effects of recent natural disasters, thereby bringing the inflation of volatile foods in the reporting month to just 0.32 percent (mtm) or 9.85 percent (yoy).

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had depreciated (0.15 percent) to IDR 11,665 per US dollar on Thursday (27/02), 15:00 local Jakarta time, based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Governor of Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo stated yesterday to expect the currency to stabilize near current levels in line with its economic fundamentals ahead of looming further Federal Reserve tapering. Analysts estimate that Indonesia's trade balance might deteriorate in January 2014 as the impact of the mineral-ore export ban kicks in.

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The current account deficit of Indonesia is expected to ease further in the first quarter of 2014 due to a possible slowdown of imports according to Deputy Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro. This slowdown is estimated to be caused by the implementation of Indonesia's higher income tax on the import of durable consumer goods, effective from January 2014. However, the deficit will not ease markedly from the USD $4 billion deficit (equivalent to 1.98 percent of the country's gross domestic product) recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013.

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