Today (03/02), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) will release a number of macroeconomic data which are eagerly awaited for by market participants. Most importantly, Indonesia's January 2014 inflation rate and the December 2013 trade balance. These data will have an impact on the performance of Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate and the country's benchmark stock index (IHSG). Monthly inflation in January is expected to range between 0.8 and 1.0 percent, while a trade surplus of about USD $800 million in December is forecast.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects that the country will record another monthly trade surplus in December 2013. Perry Warjiyo, Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, said that the December trade balance is estimated to record a USD $785 million surplus, thus slightly improving from the USD $776.8 million surplus in November 2013. If Bank Indonesia's forecast is realized then it would be the third consecutive month in which Indonesia posts a trade surplus. This is important  to improve the country's financial stability.

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Forecasts for economic growth in Indonesia in 2014 are still optimistic. The government of Indonesia targets a 6 percent growth rate, while the country's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects GDP growth in the range of 5.8 to 6.2 percent. Although these forecasts clearly fall short of the target set in the country's National Medium Term Development Plan (RPJMN) - which mentions annual GDP growth of between 6.3 and 6.8 percent - the forecasts are still rather positive given the global uncertain and volatile economic context in recent years.

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The Governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, expects that the pace of inflation in Indonesia in January 2014 is most likely to become one of the lowest January inflation rates in the last five years although it remains important that food supplies are maintained at safe levels. The higher price of LPG in Southeast Asia's largest economy is expected to contribute only slightly to January's inflation rate. Martowardojo also stated that Indonesia's macroeconomy is stable at the start of a new year.

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The World Bank released the December edition of its Indonesia economic quarterly report. The title of the report “Slower Growth; High Risks” leaves little to the imagination. The World Bank expects Indonesia’s economic growth to slow to 5.3 percent in 2014 amid external shocks, most notably the Federal Reserve 'tapering'. The report states that “while policymakers in Indonesia have taken steps to encourage near-term macroeconomic stability, further structural reforms are needed to support export performance and encourage long-term faster growth.”

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On Monday (09/12), the government of Indonesia outlined the long-awaited extension of its economic policy package that was released in August 2013. This extension involves new fiscal policies, aimed at reducing imports and supporting exports, that will be implemented at the start of 2014. An improving global economy in combination with the government's August package and yesterday's extension package is expected to reduce Indonesia's wide current account deficit to a sustainable level of below 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

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Inflation in November 2013 continued to show a decelerating trend at 0.12 percent (month-to-month) or 8.37 percent (year-on-year). Although higher compared to October 2013 inflation (0.09 percent), November inflation was lower than its historical pattern in the last five years. The low inflation rate was influenced by deflation in the volatile food group with deflation of 0.57 percent (mtm), a result of the correction in chilli prices, especially in Java and eastern region of Indonesia as well as the decline in the chicken meat price in almost all areas of Indonesia.

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Today (02/12), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesian inflation was recorded at 0.12 percent in November 2013. Suryamin, Head of BPS, said that the price movements of basic needs, including rice and chili, were under control in November, while other components, such as groceries and clothing, in fact recorded deflation. Compared to the month November in previous years, the 0.12 inflation rate is limited. In November 2012, inflation was recorded at 0.34 percent. Indonesia's year-on-year inflation rate now stands at 8.37 percent.

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Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia's central bank, expects the Indonesian economy to consolidate in 2014. The country is currently experiencing an economic correction with GDP growth slowing to 5.62 percent in the third quarter of 2013. Martowardojo said that the current account deficit still needs time to reach a healthy level. Indonesia's current account deficit stood at USD $8.4 billion (equivalent to 3.8 percent of the country's GDP) in the third quarter of 2013, down from USD $9.8 billion (4.4 percent of GDP) in the second quarter.

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Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), stated that the country's economy is expected to grow 5.7 percent in 2013. Bank Indonesia believes GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 to fall below the growth figure realized in Q3-2013 (5.62 percent). Martowardojo said that the government needs to continue measures to improve the country's exports, while trying to curtail imports of oil and gas as domestic demand for fuels remained high, even after the increase in prices of subsidized fuels in June 2013.

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After having recorded a trade deficit for several months, Indonesia finally posted a USD $20 million trade surplus in October 2014, according to data from the country’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS) released on Monday (01/12). Exports in October amounted to USD $15.35 billion, while imports were recorded at USD $15.33 billion. The improvement in Indonesia’s trade balance was mainly on the back of growth in the country’s non-oil & gas sector exports. This sector saw a surplus of USD $1.13 billion (up from USD $760 million in September).

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The current account deficit of Indonesia eased to USD $6.84 billion, or 3.07 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2014 (down from USD $8.69 billion, or 4.07 percent of GDP in the previous quarter). This improvement was mainly supported by a solid surplus in the country’s non-oil & gas sector, partly the result of the US economic recovery as well as resumed copper concentrate exports by Freeport Indonesia and Newmont Nusa Tenggara (after successful mining contract renegotiations).

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The wide current account deficit of Indonesia is expected to have eased in the third quarter of 2014. According to information from the country’s central bank, the current account deficit narrowed to 3.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in Q3-2014 from 4.27 percent of GDP in the previous quarter. A deficit below the level of 3 percent of GDP is generally regarded as a sustainable level. The improvement in Q3-2014 is mainly due to resumed mineral exports after the government and several miners managed to finalize renegotiations.

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Bank Indonesia decided to hold the key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent in October, with the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility rates kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. This level is expected to help control inflation at 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level. Despite stable domestic conditions, Bank Indonesia sees risks: contagion risk stemming from US monetary tightening and possible higher subsidized fuel prices.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) released a press statement on Wednesday evening (01/10) in which it set out its view on the country’s trade balance and inflation after the latest economic data had been released by Statistics Indonesia (abbreviated BPS) earlier on the day. Based on information of BPS, Indonesia’s September inflation was relatively low at 0.27 percent month-to-month (m/m), while the August trade balance swung back into a deficit at USD $318.1 million.

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The Indonesian government admits that it is difficult to achieve the 5.5 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth target that was set in the Revised 2014 State Budget (APBN-P 2014). In fact, Deputy Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that Southeast Asia’s largest economy will have to work hard to reach +5.3 percentage point GDP growth this year. “We have to be realistic. Hopefully GDP growth will improve in the second half of 2014 to a level of 5.3 percent. The current forecast for GDP growth in 2014 is 5.2-5.3 percent,” he said.

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Governor of the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, commented on Indonesia’s troubled current account balance on Tuesday (12/08). Martowardojo said that he expects the balance to improve in 2014. Last year, the current account deficit of Southeast Asia’s largest economy reached 3.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP); a level which is generally regarded as unsustainable. This year, the deficit may ease to 3 percent of GDP. For investors the current account balance is an important matter. Why?

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Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first half of 2014 reached 5.17 percent (year-on-year), thus continuing the slowing growth trend that has been recorded by the country since 2011. Forecasts for GDP growth in the second half of 2014 indicate a slight improvement (to the range of 5.2 to 5.3 percent year-on-year) supported by strong household consumption, increased government spending and further growth of the trade and services sector. However, in recent quarters the official GDP figure has been lower than most forecasts.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Tuesday (05/08) that Indonesia’s economy grew 5.12 percent in the second quarter of 2014 from the same quarter last year. This means that gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Indonesia has continued the slowing trend it has been experiencing since 2011. The 5.12 percentage point GDP growth in Q2-2014 is the slowest growth pace that has been recorded by Southeast Asia’s largest economy since the fourth quarter of 2009. What explains this slowing economic growth of Indonesia?

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According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country’s trade balance in June 2014 recorded a deficit of USD $0.30 billion after the USD $0.05 billion surplus in the previous month. The performance of Indonesia’s trade balance was influenced by shrinkage of the country’s non-oil & gas surplus amid a lower oil & gas deficit compared to May 2014. Meanwhile, inflation was up 0.93 percent (month-to-month) in July 2014; a good performance amid the Ramadan and Idul Fitri festivities. Annual inflation eased to 4.53 percent (year-on-year).

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