The Standard Chartered Bank expects the economy of Indonesia to accelerate slightly in 2015 compared to this year’s estimated performance. The bank forecasts a growth pace of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) next year, up from 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2014. Standard Chartered Bank economist Eric Sugandi recently said that the Indonesian economy will be affected by two factors: the great rotation (capital outflows from emerging markets ahead of US interest rate hikes) and growth disparity (slowing growth or recession in China and Japan).

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In its latest report entitled ‘Growth Hesitates in Developing Asia’ (which is a supplement to the ‘Asian Development Outlook 2014 Update’), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) slightly downgraded economic growth in developing Asia to 6.1 percent (y/y) in 2014 from its September estimate of 6.2 percent (y/y). Despite slowing momentum the ADB believes that current low oil prices constitute a great opportunity for Asian countries to conduct structural reforms as many of these countries are net oil importers.

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On Monday morning (08/12), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate quickly plunged after the release of weak macroeconomic data from Japan and China, two important trading partners of Indonesia. Economic growth in Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, contracted 0.5 percent (quarter-to-quarter) in Q3-2014, while Chinese imports fell 6.7 percent (year-on-year) in November 2014. As a result the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.54 percent to IDR 12,365 per US dollar by 11:30 am local Jakarta time, the weakest level in six years.

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Indonesia’s Finance Minister has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in the context of Indonesia’s participation within the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The AIIB is a new multilateral international financial institution (initiated by China) that is to provide funds for infrastructure projects in the Asia Pacific region. This new institution is seen as a challenge to the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Asian Development Bank (ADB) which are all regarded as being dominated by developed countries.

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Irvan Kamal Hakim, Director at Krakatau Steel (Indonesia’s largest steel manufacturer), said that the domestic steel industry is still affected by prolonged concerns about excess steel supply in China, the world's largest steel producer. Amid slowing economic growth in the world’s second-largest economy, domestic steel demand in China has declined resulting in a global oversupply of 525 million tons. Each 1 percent decline in GDP growth in China results in an additional oversupply of 24 million tons of steel.

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Exports of Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives increased 45.8 percent month-on-month (m/m) to 2.47 million metric tons in October 2014 primarily supported by the zero export tariff that was implemented by the Indonesian government per 1 October. Indonesia has a mechanism that when the average CPO price (which is calculated using international and local CPO prices) drop below USD $750 per metric ton, the export tax is scrapped. In early September, Malaysia had already implemented a zero CPO export tax.

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Statistics Indonesia announced on Wednesday (05/11) that economic growth in Indonesia reached 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2014. This result was slightly below analysts’ forecasts and implies that the slowing trend of economic expansion in Southeast Asia’s largest economy continues. Since 2011, gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been declining amid global and domestic developments. The 5.01 percentage point GDP growth in Q3-2014 was the slowest quarterly growth pace in five years.

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Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) producers have released good corporate earnings over the first nine months of 2014. Below, we have presented an overview of those CPO producers, listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, that have already released their financial results. Combined, these eleven companies recorded net profit growth of 155.3 percent year-on-year (y/y). The main reason for this improved performance was the 24 percent (average) increase in global CPO prices as the commodity gained popularity as an energy source.

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Economic growth in Indonesia is expected to continue to slow in the third quarter of 2014 according to the country’s central bank. Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Perry Warjiyo said on Thursday (30/10) that the institution believes gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Southeast Asia’s largest economy to reach 5.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q3-2014, similar to the GDP growth result in the previous quarter (5.12 percent, y/y). Main reason for this slowing pace is the sluggish global economy and particularly the case of China.

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Contrary to most other (agricultural) commodities, the global price of cocoa has increased in the second half of 2014. While prices of commodities such as oil, soybeans, corn and wheat have eased due to robust global supply, and others - such as cotton - have eased amid lower global demand, the price of cocoa has been rising steadily. Despite a weak start in 2014, the cocoa price has grown over 10 percent (after having rallied around 25 percent in 2013). Main reason for this performance is the world’s rising cocoa demand.

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Economic expansion of China slowed to a growth pace of 7.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2014, the slowest pace in five years. Although China’s Q3-2014 GDP growth result was better than most analysts’ projections of 7.2 percent, Chinese policy makers will face difficulties to achieve its 7.5 percent annual growth target for full-year 2014. Being one of the most important trading partners of Indonesia, slowing economic growth of China has a major impact on the export performance of Indonesia.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the lower pace of economic growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy, is a major concern for Indonesia as it leads to declining demand for commodities (and thus places downward pressure on commodity prices). As Indonesia is a major commodity exporter - such as coal, crude palm oil, nickel ore and tin - the country feels the impact of weak global demand for commodities. About 60 percent of Indonesia’s exports are commodities, mostly raw ones.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) rose 0.18 percent to 5,142.01 points on Monday (29/09) despite the sharp depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate. Possibly market participants took advantage of relatively cheap blue chip stocks after the 1.3 percent drop on Friday (26/09) caused by negative market sentiments brought about by the parliament’s passing of a bill which abolishes direct voting of regional leaders. Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 542.4 billion.

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In line with the trend on other Asian stock indices, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell on Monday (22/09) amid profit taking after three days of gains. Not even the appreciating rupiah exchange rate and net buying of foreign investors (IDR 26.6 billion) were able to push Indonesia’s index into the green zone. The IHSG declined 0.15 percent to 5,219.80 points. All sectors on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) fell except for the consumer goods and finance sectors.

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The global nickel price declined 5.1 percent on Tuesday (09/09) after it became known that the Philippines would not implement a ban on exports of this commodity yet. Similar to Indonesia, the Philippines was preparing to implement a ban on exports of unprocessed minerals in an attempt to boost revenues (by exporting mining products with added value). However, it may take seven years before such a policy is implemented. This implies that the occurrence of a possible shortage of nickel on the global market in the coming years has diminished.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) climbed slightly on Monday (18/08), not being impacted - as we feared earlier - by mixed stock indices on Wall Street and Europe on Friday (15/08). Increased speculation about widening Chinese monetary policy in the country’s property sector made a good impact on Asian stock indices, including Indonesia’s IHSG. At the end of the trading day, the IHSG had strengthened 0.15 percent to 5,156.75 points, also supported by the appreciating rupiah (Bank Indonesia’s mid-rate).

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Weakening global stock indices meant that it would be difficult for the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) to continue its upward movement on Tuesday (05/08). Moreover, there were few positive sentiments originating from the Archipelago as Indonesia’s Q2-2014 GDP growth (+5.12 percent year-on-year) was below expectation and the country’s trade balance showed a deficit of USD $300 million in June 2014. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah exchange appreciated slightly.

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Prestigious Hong Kong-based HSBC Bank claims that a new commodity boom may appear if India will boost investments in infrastructure and housing. Chances of increased spending in India have grown considerably after reform-minded Narendra Modi posted a victory in the May 2014 election. Economists at the HSBC Bank say that this may give rise to a new prolonged commodities boom as had occurred in the 2000s which - to a large extent - was triggered by accelerated economic growth in emerging economies, particularly China.

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Emerging currencies in Asia, led by the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate, strengthened in the past week on positive economic data from the US and China, the world’s two largest economies. Companies in the US added more jobs than expected in June 2014, while manufacturing in China grew at its fastest pace in 2014. Improving economies of the US and China are important for Asian countries as it boosts Asian exports. Moreover, Indonesian inflation and trade data contributed to positive market sentiments.

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In the last 12 months, the international copper price showed a neutral movement (moving more or less sideways). This is particularly due to a number of issues in China, the world’s second largest economy, which impact negatively on the copper price movement. China has become such an important market for a variety of commodities, including copper (used in construction and electronics), that other countries can be considered almost irrelevant. Why do analysts have low expectations of the copper market for the remainder of 2014?

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