Based on the annual work report that China's Premier Li Keqiang delivered in the 12th National People’s Congress (NPC) in Bejing, China targets economic growth of 7.5 percent in 2014. This modest but stable growth should ensure sufficient availability of jobs. Keqiang also hinted at government efforts to reduce the level of pollution as well as credit expansion. furthermore, the country's targets for inflation and money supply are also in accordance with predictions. Last year, China's GDP expanded by 7.7 percent.

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The number of expatriates working in Indonesia has declined in the last three years. Based on data from the Ministry of Manpower & Transmigration there were 68,957 expatriates working in Indonesia in 2013, a 4.8 percent decline from 2012. The main reason for this falling number is tighter government policy. Minister Muhaimin Iskandar stated that curtailing the influx of expats is one way of developing the country's human resources. Only when a foreigner has such exceptional qualities - not easily found in Indonesia - should he/she work in Indonesia.

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Chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) Bob Kamandanu expects that Indonesia's coal production will decline about 5 percent to 400 million tons in 2014 after the government asked miners to scale back production rates in order to safeguard future domestic supplies as the country needs sufficient energy resources for its future energy supply. Amid low domestic demand, the government asked Indonesian coal mining companies to limit the country's total coal output at 397 million metric tons.

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Market participants were pleased to see the trade balance of Indonesia posting an unexpected USD $1.52 billion surplus in December 2013, almost twice as high than previous forecasts. This December surplus is the highest monthly surplus since December 2011. Exports rose 6.56 percent from November 2013 and 10.33 percent from December 2012, while imports rose 2.04 percent from November 2013 but declined 0.79 percent from December 2012. Although showing an easing trend, Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD $4.06 billion in full 2013.

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On Tuesday (21/01), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sent a positive message to the world as it slightly raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2014. The main reason for this upward revision is the improving economy of the USA. According to the IMF, the US economy will grow 2.8 percent in 2014 (0.2 percentage points higher than the IMF's previous outlook released in October 2013). Due to stronger US growth, the global economy is now expected to expand by 3.7 percent (0.1 percent up from its previous forecast).

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Forecasts for economic growth in Indonesia in 2014 are still optimistic. The government of Indonesia targets a 6 percent growth rate, while the country's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects GDP growth in the range of 5.8 to 6.2 percent. Although these forecasts clearly fall short of the target set in the country's National Medium Term Development Plan (RPJMN) - which mentions annual GDP growth of between 6.3 and 6.8 percent - the forecasts are still rather positive given the global uncertain and volatile economic context in recent years.

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Last Friday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its January 2014 Commodity Market Monthly. This report provides an update on global commodity prices. According to the report, global commodity prices rose 2.4 percent in December 2013, with increases in most main indices. During 2013, commodity prices increased 0.8 percent, with gains concentrated in the energy sector, up 3 percent from December 2012. Metals prices declined 7 percent due to continued increases in new capacity.

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Tata Steel Limited, the Indian multinational steel producer, recently announced its ambition to penetrate the Asia-Pacific region, including Indonesia. Although it remains unclear whether the company intends to establish a factory in Indonesia, an official of the company said that Tata Steel wants to enter Indonesia with downstream products in 2014 or 2015 as it sees potential in Southeast Asia's largest economy and aims to improve profitability by increasing efficiency in the operatives in the Asia-Pacific.

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Indonesia's Finance Minister Chatib Basri expects that Indonesia's economic growth in 2013 will reach 5.7 percent, significantly below the government's initial target of 6.3 percent. Basri announced his expectation at the government's economic evaluation and projection meeting. According to Basri, Indonesia's economic growth is stable, despite its slowing trend. Among the G20 member countries, only China will post higher GDP growth (7.8 percent up to the third quarter). Indonesia's inflation rate is expected to reach 8.5 percent (yoy) at the year-end.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) detects a slowdown in GDP growth in major emerging market economies and decline in commodity prices, and more recently, a reversal in push factors tied to a prospective exit from extraordinarily easy global monetary conditions, has put pressure on Indonesia’s balance of payments and heightened its vulnerability to shocks. Domestic policy accommodation and rising energy subsidies have also given rise to increased external and fiscal imbalances.

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Economic expansion of China slowed to a growth pace of 7.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2014, the slowest pace in five years. Although China’s Q3-2014 GDP growth result was better than most analysts’ projections of 7.2 percent, Chinese policy makers will face difficulties to achieve its 7.5 percent annual growth target for full-year 2014. Being one of the most important trading partners of Indonesia, slowing economic growth of China has a major impact on the export performance of Indonesia.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the lower pace of economic growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy, is a major concern for Indonesia as it leads to declining demand for commodities (and thus places downward pressure on commodity prices). As Indonesia is a major commodity exporter - such as coal, crude palm oil, nickel ore and tin - the country feels the impact of weak global demand for commodities. About 60 percent of Indonesia’s exports are commodities, mostly raw ones.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) rose 0.18 percent to 5,142.01 points on Monday (29/09) despite the sharp depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate. Possibly market participants took advantage of relatively cheap blue chip stocks after the 1.3 percent drop on Friday (26/09) caused by negative market sentiments brought about by the parliament’s passing of a bill which abolishes direct voting of regional leaders. Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 542.4 billion.

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In line with the trend on other Asian stock indices, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell on Monday (22/09) amid profit taking after three days of gains. Not even the appreciating rupiah exchange rate and net buying of foreign investors (IDR 26.6 billion) were able to push Indonesia’s index into the green zone. The IHSG declined 0.15 percent to 5,219.80 points. All sectors on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) fell except for the consumer goods and finance sectors.

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The global nickel price declined 5.1 percent on Tuesday (09/09) after it became known that the Philippines would not implement a ban on exports of this commodity yet. Similar to Indonesia, the Philippines was preparing to implement a ban on exports of unprocessed minerals in an attempt to boost revenues (by exporting mining products with added value). However, it may take seven years before such a policy is implemented. This implies that the occurrence of a possible shortage of nickel on the global market in the coming years has diminished.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) climbed slightly on Monday (18/08), not being impacted - as we feared earlier - by mixed stock indices on Wall Street and Europe on Friday (15/08). Increased speculation about widening Chinese monetary policy in the country’s property sector made a good impact on Asian stock indices, including Indonesia’s IHSG. At the end of the trading day, the IHSG had strengthened 0.15 percent to 5,156.75 points, also supported by the appreciating rupiah (Bank Indonesia’s mid-rate).

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Weakening global stock indices meant that it would be difficult for the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) to continue its upward movement on Tuesday (05/08). Moreover, there were few positive sentiments originating from the Archipelago as Indonesia’s Q2-2014 GDP growth (+5.12 percent year-on-year) was below expectation and the country’s trade balance showed a deficit of USD $300 million in June 2014. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah exchange appreciated slightly.

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Prestigious Hong Kong-based HSBC Bank claims that a new commodity boom may appear if India will boost investments in infrastructure and housing. Chances of increased spending in India have grown considerably after reform-minded Narendra Modi posted a victory in the May 2014 election. Economists at the HSBC Bank say that this may give rise to a new prolonged commodities boom as had occurred in the 2000s which - to a large extent - was triggered by accelerated economic growth in emerging economies, particularly China.

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Emerging currencies in Asia, led by the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate, strengthened in the past week on positive economic data from the US and China, the world’s two largest economies. Companies in the US added more jobs than expected in June 2014, while manufacturing in China grew at its fastest pace in 2014. Improving economies of the US and China are important for Asian countries as it boosts Asian exports. Moreover, Indonesian inflation and trade data contributed to positive market sentiments.

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In the last 12 months, the international copper price showed a neutral movement (moving more or less sideways). This is particularly due to a number of issues in China, the world’s second largest economy, which impact negatively on the copper price movement. China has become such an important market for a variety of commodities, including copper (used in construction and electronics), that other countries can be considered almost irrelevant. Why do analysts have low expectations of the copper market for the remainder of 2014?

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