Indonesia’s central bank decided to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.75 percent at Thursday’s Board of Governors’ Meeting (11/12). The Lending Facility and Deposit Facility were kept at 8.00 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. The central bank is convinced that the current interest rate levels are effective to combat short-term inflationary pressures (triggered by the implementation of higher subsidized fuel prices in mid-November) pushing it back to the target corridor of between 3 and 4 percent (y/y) in 2015.

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The central bank of Indonesia projects non-performing loans (NPL) to rise to 2.4 percent of the country’s total outstanding loans by the end of the year, significantly up from 1.8 percent at the end of last year. Despite the acceleration of bad loans in Indonesia, the institution stated that it is still manageable. Meanwhile, loan growth in Indonesia is estimated to slow to 11 or 12 percent (y/y) by the end of 2014 (the slowest pace since 2010), down from 21.4 percent (y/y) in 2013 primarily due to the central bank’s monetary tightening policy.

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On Monday (08/12) the World Bank released the December edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly, entitled ‘Delivering Chance’. In the report the World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia next year to 5.2 percent (y/y), from 5.6 percent (y/y) in the July edition of its flagship publication, due to weaker investment growth and sluggish exports. Indonesia’s GDP growth in 2014 is projected at 5.1 percent (y/y), slightly below the World Bank’s previous estimate of 5.2 percent.

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Main news headlines in Indonesia still cover the higher subsidized fuel prices implemented starting from the early hours of Tuesday (18/11). The previous evening, Indonesian President Joko Widodo had announced that prices of subsidized gasoline and diesel were to be raised by over 30 percent, immediately leading to long queues at local gas stations as well as public outcry as people’s purchasing power will diminish. Analysts and economists, however, agree that this move is correct and can lead to structurally higher GDP growth.

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Global rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed Indonesia’s Sovereign Credit Rating at BBB-/stable outlook (investment grade status) on Thursday (13/11). This rating affirmation by the credit rating agency can be regarded as international recognition of prudent fiscal policy in Southeast Asia’s largest economy amid global uncertain times. Policy responses pursued by both the government and central bank of Indonesia have been well received by Fitch Ratings and managed to safeguard economic stability.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced today (after the Board of Governors’ meeting) that it keeps the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent. The lending facility rate and the deposit rate are maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, said that interest rates were maintained as the country’s current account deficit narrowed to 3.07 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2014.

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The central bank of Indonesia is expected to keep its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent at the next Board of Governors’ meeting (scheduled for Thursday 13 November 2014) in anticipation of accelerated inflation triggered by higher prices of subsidized fuels. The Indonesian government plans to raise prices of subsidized gasoline and diesel before the end of the month in an attempt to curb the country’s wide current account deficit and reallocate government funds to more structural or productive activities than fuel consumption.

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Statistics Indonesia announced on Wednesday (05/11) that economic growth in Indonesia reached 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2014. This result was slightly below analysts’ forecasts and implies that the slowing trend of economic expansion in Southeast Asia’s largest economy continues. Since 2011, gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been declining amid global and domestic developments. The 5.01 percentage point GDP growth in Q3-2014 was the slowest quarterly growth pace in five years.

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On 2 November 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as GDP growth in the third quarter of 2014, an October inflation update, developments in coal mining, Internet connectivity, Soechi Lines’ IPO, Joko Widodo’s new cabinet, and more.

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Economic growth in Indonesia is expected to continue to slow in the third quarter of 2014 according to the country’s central bank. Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Perry Warjiyo said on Thursday (30/10) that the institution believes gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Southeast Asia’s largest economy to reach 5.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q3-2014, similar to the GDP growth result in the previous quarter (5.12 percent, y/y). Main reason for this slowing pace is the sluggish global economy and particularly the case of China.

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There are doubts whether Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth can reach 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2018 as Indonesia is experiencing a couple of major challenges. Challenges include the global trade war, the fragile rupiah, Bank Indonesia's higher benchmark interest rate, the current account deficit, and political tensions ahead of the 2019 legislative and presidential elections. Currently, Indonesia Investments' forecast for Indonesia's economic growth is set at 5.2 percent (y/y) in 2018.

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There are signs that household consumption in Indonesia is rebounding ahead of this year's Idul Fitri holiday. This would be a great boost for Indonesia's overall economic growth as private consumption accounts for around 57 percent of the nation's total economic growth. One of the reasons why Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been stuck around the 5 percent (y/y) mark in recent years is subdued household consumption (which has fallen slightly below the 5 percent y/y mark).

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The World Bank revised down its economic growth projection for Indonesia from 5.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.2 percent (y/y) for full-year 2018 amid the complex external environment: tightening monetary conditions, a potential global trade war, financial volatility, and geopolitical concerns. Such external factors put pressure on Indonesia's export performance, hence on domestic economic growth.

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In the April 2018 edition of its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, the World Bank is cautiously optimistic about economic growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP). After a better-than-expected global economy in 2017, growth in developing EAP is expected to remain stable in 2018, reflected by solid prospects in Thailand and several commodity exporters, notably Indonesia. Domestic demand is estimated to remain robust in most of the region's economies and continue to underpin growth in 2018 and beyond. However, with economies operating close to their potential, price pressures are expected to rise.

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The World Bank released the latest edition of its flagship publication Indonesia Economic Quarterly on Tuesday (27/03). The March 2018 edition of the report is entitled "Towards Inclusive Growth". In the report the World Bank is positive about Indonesia's economic outlook after seeing the nation's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth picking up at 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2017 (accelerating from 5.1 percent y/y in the previous quarter).

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At a special occasion at the Presidential Palace in Jakarta, Indonesian President Joko Widodo urged local banks to become more aggressive in terms of lending as credit disbursement in Indonesia's banking sector only reached IDR 4,782 trillion (approx. USD $349 billion) in 2017, hence growing by only a modest 8.3 percent year-on-year (y/y), thus unable to provide an optimal boost to domestic economic growth.

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Rating and Investment Information, Inc (R&I), a Japan-based provider of credit ratings, investment appraisal and information services, announced that it has upgraded Indonesia's sovereign credit rating from BBB- (positive outlook) to BBB (stable outlook) per 7 March 2018. Last December, Fitch Ratings had already upgraded Indonesia's long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer default ratings to BBB (stable outlook), from BBB- previously.

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In full-year 2017 the Indonesian economy expanded 5.07 percent year-on-year (y/y). Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Monday morning (05/02) that the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 5.19 percent (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2017. These figures show a mixed picture.

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In the World Bank's January 2018 edition of its Global Economic Prospect (GEP) report, released earlier this week, Indonesia's economic growth is considered stable at 5.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the 2018-2020 period. Although compared to emerging peers in the Asian region, a 5.3 percent growth pace is not too impressive, the positive message from the GEP report is that - contrary to many emerging Asian peers - Indonesia is not expected to see sliding economic growth in the years ahead.

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In line with expectations, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Thursday (16/11). The seven-day reverse repurchase rate (BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate) was kept at 4.25 percent for a second straight month. Meanwhile, the deposit facility and lending facility rates were kept at 3.50 percent and 5.00 percent respectively.

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