The Indonesian rupiah continued to depreciate on Friday (07/08). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency depreciated 0.09 percent to IDR 13,541 per US dollar on the last trading day of the week. As such, the rupiah continued to flirt with a 17-year low. With US nonfarm payrolls expected to improve at a steady pace, implying that an US interest rate hike may come sooner than later, the US dollar’s bullish momentum persisted. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves fell by USD $40 million in July.

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Once again, the Indonesian rupiah depreciated beyond the IDR 13,500 per US dollar level on Wednesday (05/08), touching its weakest level since the Asian Financial Crisis (which began as a financial crisis but would soon develop into a deep economic, political and social crisis in Indonesia) in 1997-1998. For some Indonesian policy makers, business players and investors the current weak rupiah therefore brings back bad memories. However, there are significant changes between conditions now and those in 1997-1998.

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There are still persistent external and internal factors that make it difficult for Indonesian stocks to rise. By 12:07 am local Jakarta time, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) was down 0.25 percent to 4,788.37 points. Meanwhile, the rupiah had appreciated 0.36 percent to IDR 13,462 per US dollar by the same time according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. What are the external (foreign) and internal (domestic) factors that influence the performance of Indonesian assets on today’s trading day (04/08)?

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On 2 August 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such a forecast for Indonesia’s economic growth in the Q2-2015, an update on the rupiah rate, foreign direct investment realization in Q2-2015, consumer confidence, new tax regulations in the palm oil sector, and more.

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In line with the general trend in Southeast Asia, Indonesian stocks traded mostly higher on the last trading day of the week. Despite not-so-good H1-2015 corporate earnings reports from the larger listed Indonesian companies, the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index was up 1.33 percent to 4,775.10 points in the first trading session on Friday (31/07). According to market watchers, Indonesia’s index is experiencing a technical rebound after falling earlier this week. However, the index is still on track to post its second straight monthly decline.

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Similar to yesterday, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are still moving cautiously on Thursday (30/07). Supported by yesterday’s rising US stocks and today’s mostly rising stocks in the Asia-Pacific region, the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index climbed 0.22 percent in the first trading session on Thursday. However, the latest statements from the US Federal Reserve also signal that a US interest rate hike is coming closer, hence giving rise to a stronger US dollar at the expense of most global currencies and the gold price.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah continued to weaken on the first trading day of the week, especially due to negative global market sentiments. China’s Shanghai Composite Index tumbled a staggering 8.48 percent on Monday (27/07), its worst daily percentage fall since February 2007. Furthermore, Wall Street closed broadly lower on Friday (24/07) for the fourth straight day. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah continued to depreciate against the US dollar, making Indonesian assets unattractive to foreign investors.

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The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) announced today (27/07) that - in rupiah terms - foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia rose 18.2 percent (y/y) to IDR 92.2 trillion rupiah in the second quarter of 2015, the fastest growth pace recorded since 2013. However, in US dollar terms, FDI fell to USD $7.38 billion in Q2-2015 from USD $7.43 billion in the same quarter one year earlier. The BKPM uses an IDR 12,500 per US dollar exchange rate in 2015 and an IDR 10,500 per US dollar exchange rate in 2014.

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On 26 July 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such Indonesia’s coal royalties, a July inflation update, the weak performance of Indonesian stocks and the rupiah, revised regulations regarding the position of foreign workers in Indonesia, and more.

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Indonesia’s decision to raise import tariffs for food, cars, clothes as well as various other consumer goods put additional downward pressure on Indonesian stocks on the last trading day of the week (24/07). Those listed companies (retailers) that rely on imported goods saw their shares tumble as a consequence of the higher import tariffs. The Indonesian Finance Ministry raised import duties for consumer goods between 10 and 150 percent (depending on product) in a bid to boost the country’s consumer goods industry and curtail imports.

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Bank Indonesia (BI) is the central bank of the Republic of Indonesia, and was known as "De Javasche bank" or "The Java Bank" in the colonial period.  Bank Indonesia was founded on 1 July 1953 from the nationalization of De Javasche Bank. As an independent state institution, Bank Indonesia is fully autonomous in formulating and implementing each of its assumed tasks and most policy goals tend to center around the ability to stabilize prices in the economy.

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Asian stocks, including Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index, continue their persistent slide on Friday (04/11) ahead of the US presidential election on Tuesday 8 November 2016. By 10:45 am local Jakarta time, Indonesian stocks were down 0.29 percent to 5,314.00 points, while the rupiah had depreciated 0.14 percent to IDR 13,093 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Besides the too-close-to-call US election, investors are also keeping an eye on the mass demonstration in Jakarta today.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has become slightly less optimistic about Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2016. Bank Indonesia revised down its growth projection to below the 5 percent (y/y) mark for Q3-2016 (from an earlier forecast of 5.2 percent). However, the lender of last resort still expects to see a better performance compared to the 4.73 percent (y/y) pace posted in Q3-2015. Meanwhile, low inflation and a strong rupiah could result in another interest rate cut in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Packaged food producer Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur, subsidiary of Indofood Sukses Makmur, is expected to see rising profit in the second half of 2016 on the back of lower prices of raw materials (particularly wheat flour, the key ingredient for instant noodles), the stronger rupiah and improved purchasing power of Indonesia's consumer force. Meanwhile, the company may manage to curb losses that originate from the beverage segment. Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur has 6 business segments: noodles, dairy, snack foods, food seasoning, nutrition and special food products, and beverages.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has made some important decisions under the current Governor Agus Martowardojo. Here, Bank Indonesia has been directed toward achieving the responsibility of making financial decisions that promote consumer price stability over the long-term. This has resulted in widespread gains in the rupiah against a basket of world currencies -- including the US dollar. But recent rate cuts now have the potential to reverse these broader trends.

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Many things happened this week. A devastating terror attack in Nice (France) killed at least 84 people, while - at the time of writing - a coup attempt occurred in Turkey (that seems to have failed). However, these events have little impact on the performance of global stocks and currencies (with the obvious exception of the Turkish lira). Wall Street touched record highs, while Indonesian stocks rose to a 13-month high and the Indonesian rupiah strengthened to a four-month high. Lets take a closer look at the performance of these markets over the past week.

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As expected, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell on Friday (01/07) due to profit-taking after an impressive recent (relief) rally that brought the index into bull market territory earlier this week. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah maintained its momentum, appreciating 0.72 percent to IDR 13,115 per US dollar on the first day of the new month, the currency's strongest level in three and a half months. Most Asian emerging markets have now repaired their earlier Brexit-induced losses.

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Over the last few months, we have seen a good deal of stability in the financial markets. This has been the experience in most asset classes, and the global value of the Indonesian rupiah is giving investors an idea of how the IDR is likely to continue to perform as an emerging market asset.

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The first day of the month - in case of a working day - implies that investors can count on the release of several macroeconomic data from Indonesia, specifically inflation and manufacturing activity. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced this morning (01/06) that Indonesia's consumer inflation reached 0.24 percent (m/m), or 3.33 percent (y/y), in May 2016. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to a reading of 50.6 in May from 50.9 one month earlier. Lets take a closer look at these data.

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Over the last few months, we have seen some impressive gains in the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) relative to the US dollar (USD). When we compare the performance of the IDR against the rest of the emerging market space, we can see that its gains are behind only the Brazilian real (BRL) and the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) for the period. This has prompted a wave of foreign export purchases as Indonesian consumers look to take advantage of the stronger currency.

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