Indonesian stocks and the rupiah exchange rate strengthened considerably on Friday (17/10) due to speculation that president-elect Joko Widodo will raise prices of subsidized fuels soon after his inauguration as Indonesia’s seventh President on Monday 20 October 2014. Furthermore, a meeting between Widodo and powerful opposition leader Prabowo Subianto on Friday morning also managed to ease concerns about political stability in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Lastly, rising indices on Wall Street added positive market sentiments.

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Political uncertainties in Indonesia brought on by the rivalry between president-elect Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) and defeated candidate Prabowo Subianto may have eased somewhat as both men met on Friday morning (17/10) in Jakarta. After the meeting Subianto stated that he fully supports the Jokowi-led government, while Jokowi stated that he is open to receive criticism from opposition in the House of Representatives (DPR). Jokowi will be inaugurated on 20 October 2014 as Indonesia’s seventh president.

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Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, is highly supportive of president-elect Joko Widodo’s plan to increase prices of subsidized fuels before the end of the year as this move would help to diminish the country’s structural current account deficit as well as improve the trade balance. Widodo, who will assume office on 20 October 2014, is expected to raise prices of subsidized fuels by between IDR 1,000 and 3,000 per liter, and relocate state funds to social and economic development.

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Lukita Dinarsyah, Deputy Minister at Indonesia’s Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), said that Indonesia requires at least IDR 278 trillion (USD $23.2 billion) worth of investments to build supporting infrastructure for faster Internet connectivity across the country. Enhanced Internet connectivity is one of the tools to support faster economic growth. Dinarsyah cited a study that claims that with every ten percent growth in Internet users the economy expands by an additional 1.2 to 1.4 percent.

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The government of Indonesia eyes to raise up to IDR 8 trillion (USD $667 million) in a bond auction set for Tuesday (14/10). The proceeds of this bond issuance will be used to finance the country’s state budget deficit in 2014. The Finance Ministry said that the Indonesian government will offer six series of bonds, with maturities ranging between 2015 and 2044. For analysts this issuance is an important test to measure investors’ confidence (particularly foreign investors) in Indonesia’s debt markets.

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Both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and Indonesian stocks weakened sharply on Wednesday (08/10) due to internal and external factors. Externally, weakening stock indices on Wall Street on Tuesday (07/10) have a severe negative impact on the performance of Asian stocks today. Wall Street was down on the IMF’s downward revised outlook for global GDP growth in 2014 and 2015, as well as on Germany’s industrial production, which fell the most in five years in August 2014.

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After a long plenary session of the People’s Consultative Assembly (or MPR), Zulkifli Hasan has been elected as the Speaker of the MPR for the period 2014-2019. Zulkifli Hasan, a former Indonesian Forestry Minister, is backed by the Merah-Putih coalition and thus his election constitutes another blow for president-elect Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi). The Merah-Putih coalition is a coalition of six political parties that support vindictive defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto.

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On 5 October 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such September inflation, August trade balance, the IPO of Blue Bird, a rupiah and stock update, a new plantations bill, political developments, and more.

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A survey of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) shows that Indonesian consumer confidence declined slightly to 119.8 points in September 2014 (from 120.2 points in the previous month) on concerns that price increases will limit people’s purchasing power. These concerns are triggered by president-elect Joko Widodo’s plans to raise prices of subsidized fuels before the year-end in an effort to safeguard the country’s financial fundamentals. Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) will be inaugurated on 20 October 2014.

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A total of 555 people have been officially inaugurated as members of Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR) for the period 2014-2019 on Wednesday (01/10). The ceremony was witnessed by incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as well as President-elect Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and his running mate Jusuf Kalla. The Jokowi-Kalla pair will be inaugurated as the country’s next president and vice-president on 20 October 2014. The PDI-P, winner of the legislative election, is the largest party in the House.

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The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) announced that growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia has slowed in the first nine months of 2014. In the first three quarters Indonesia saw the influx of IDR 228.3 trillion (USD $18.7 billion) worth of FDI, a 14.6 percentage point increase year-on-year (y/y). However, this growth pace is much lower than the 21.3 percent point growth of FDIs in the first nine months of 2013. In US dollar terms the decline was even greater as the rupiah has been depreciating.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah have rebounded on Friday due to several internal and external factors. During the first trading session on Friday (17/10), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) surged 0.94 percent to 4,998.14 points. Meanwhile, based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had appreciated 0.26 percent to IDR 12,228 per US dollar by 12:30 pm local Jakarta time. Why do Indonesian stocks and the rupiah perform well on Friday?

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Domestic steel sales in Indonesia are expected to rise 6 percent y/y to 15.1 million tons in 2014. Meanwhile, the global average steel price has been USD $536 per ton this year, implying that the market value of Indonesian steel sales is to reach USD $8 billion this year. In recent years, the country’s steel sales have been rising on development of infrastructure, defense industry, and manufacturing. The sales are expected to continue rising in the years ahead due to commitment of the government to boost infrastructure development.

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Global credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service stated that it maintains a stable outlook for Indonesia’s sovereign and corporate debt rating in the next quarters due to the country’s healthy credit fundamentals, solid macroeconomy, and reduced political tensions. Moody’s believes that Indonesia’s fundamentals are strong enough to offset the negative impact of external pressures such as looming higher US interest rates and slowing economic growth in China. Moody’s had raised Indonesia’s sovereign debt rating to investment grade in late 2011.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the lower pace of economic growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy, is a major concern for Indonesia as it leads to declining demand for commodities (and thus places downward pressure on commodity prices). As Indonesia is a major commodity exporter - such as coal, crude palm oil, nickel ore and tin - the country feels the impact of weak global demand for commodities. About 60 percent of Indonesia’s exports are commodities, mostly raw ones.

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Today, Indonesian president-elect Joko Widodo (commonly referred to as Jokowi) and Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg met in Jakarta to discuss how Facebook can be utilized for the benefit of the people and how the social media network can support Indonesian micro businesses. With nearly 70 million, Indonesia contains the world’s fourth-largest Facebook community. With a total population that numbers about 250 million people, a burgeoning middle class and relatively low Internet penetration, there remains a large untapped potential.

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Indonesian stocks tumbled at the first trading day of the week as investors are still concerned about the condition of the global economy. Declining stock indices on Wall Street at the end of last week had a negative impact on Asian stock indices, including Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index, or abbreviated IHSG). The IHSG fell 1.01 percent to 4,913.05, its lowest level since 4 July 2014, on Monday (13/10). Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 595 billion (USD $49.6 million).

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Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that although the recent weakening trend of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is in line with the performance of other Asian currencies, the central bank is prepared to intervene in the market in an effort to support the currency and keep it in a comfortable range. On Monday (06/10), Bank Indonesia Executive Director Tirta Segara already stated that foreign exchange intervention was conducted in September 2014 in order to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate.

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Technically the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) had to rebound after sharp declines during the last couple of trading days making Indonesian stocks relatively cheap. The IHSG was also supported by rising stock indices in Japan and Hong Kong that rose on strong US jobs data (although other Asian markets fell due to concerns about sooner-than-expected US interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the rupiah continued to depreciate as the market is concerned about the political situation in Indonesia.

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Indonesian stocks plunged considerably on Thursday (02/10). The country’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) declined 2.73 percent to 5,000.81 points, the largest drop in almost six months. This poor performance was caused by both external and internal factors. Externally, various weak economic data from the USA and Europe as well as an appreciating yen impacted negatively on Asian stock indices. Internally, market participants responded negatively toward the inauguration of the new parliament.

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