During his state visit to the USA, Indonesian President Joko Widodo told US President Barack Obama that Indonesia intends to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal. Currently, 12 countries have joined the TPP, including the USA and Japan, thus creating the world's largest free trade area (an area that covers about 40 percent of world trade). By many analysts the TPP is regarded a counterbalance to the big economic influence of China.

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Indonesia posted the ninth consecutive monthly trade surplus. Today, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesia posted a USD $433.8 million trade surplus in August 2015, slightly below analysts’ forecasts and well below the (revised) USD $1.38 billion trade surplus Southeast Asia’s largest economy had posted in the preceding month.

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Indonesia’s trade balance surplus widened to USD $1.33 billion in July 2015, improving markedly from the USD $528 million trade surplus in the preceding month and being much higher than expectations of analysts. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia’s July exports fell 19.2 percent (y/y) to USD $11.4 billion, while imports plunged 28.4 percent (y/y) to USD $10.1 billion. The trade surplus is positive as it supports a narrowing current account deficit (which stood at 2.1 percent of GDP in Q2-2015).

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Indonesia recorded a USD $477 million trade surplus in June 2015, the country’s seventh consecutive trade surplus. However, according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), released on Wednesday (14/07), Indonesia’s June exports fell 12.8 percent (y/y) to USD $13.4 billion, while imports fell 17.4 percent (y/y) to USD $12.9 billion. These figures show that Indonesia’s trade surplus is primarily caused by weak domestic demand "outperforming" weak global demand, hence raising concerns about global and domestic economic growth.

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One of the reasons why Indonesia’s economic expansion has been slowing in recent years is weak export performance. Amid sluggish global economic growth, particularly slowing growth in China (one of the key trading partners of Indonesia), global demand for commodities and other products have declined. Indonesia, an important commodity exporter, immediately feels the impact of falling demand. However, Indonesian exports to the USA may rise after President Barack Obama signed new legislation related to US import tariffs.

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Badan Pusat Statistik (Statistics Indonesia) announced today (15/06) that Indonesia posted a USD $950 million trade surplus in May 2015, the sixth consecutive monthly trade surplus and higher than the earlier projected USD $600 million. Although the trade surplus is positive news, a closer look at the data shows that domestic and global activity has weakened as Indonesian imports fell 21.4 percent (y/y) to USD $11.6 billion, while exports fell 15.2 percent to USD $12.6 billion in May, the eight straight month of falling imports and exports.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Wednesday (15/04) that Indonesia posted a USD $1.13 billion trade surplus in March 2015, the country’s fourth straight monthly trade surplus, and almost twice the size that analysts had forecast earlier. Despite the monthly trade surplus being good news, data also showed that both Indonesian exports and imports contracted. Exports were down 9.8 percent (y/y) to USD $13.71 billion in March, while imports fell 13.4 percent (y/y) to USD $12.58 billion.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Monday (16/03) that Indonesia posted a USD $738.3 million trade surplus in February 2015, the country’s third consecutive monthly trade surplus, and higher than the forecast of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) and a Reuters poll which both estimated a surplus in the range of USD $500 and $520 million. The surplus was also larger than the USD $709.4 million trade surplus posted in the first month of 2015. The February surplus was particularly the result of declining imports.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects that the country’s trade balance will show a USD $500 million surplus in February 2015 on the back of increased manufacturing exports, the higher price of crude palm oil, and lower oil imports. In January, Indonesia’s trade balance recorded a USD $710 million surplus, divided into a USD $748 million surplus in the non-oil & gas trade balance and a USD $38.6 million deficit in the oil & gas trade balance.

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Indonesian Trade Deputy Minister Bayu Krisnamurthi announced that Indonesian furniture, rubber and garment businesses have secured trade contracts worth USD $11.3 million with their counterparts in the USA and Canada. Most of these contracts (roughly USD 10.3 million) were sealed by US importers. Krisnamurthi stated that these deals show that international businesses have trust in Indonesian products. Moreover, the deals will have a positive impact on Indonesia’s troubled trade balance.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS), a non-departmental government institute, expects that Indonesia's trade balance will post a deficit of around USD $4 billion in 2014. The key question is whether increased manufacturing and agricultural exports can replace reduced raw mineral exports. The forecast of BPS is approximately similar to the country's trade deficit in 2013. Last year, Southeast Asia's largest economy recorded a deficit of USD $4.06 billion as the total value of exports amounted to USD $182.57 billion, while imports reached USD $186.63 billion.

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In the last month of 2013, Indonesia's trade balance posted a surplus of USD $1.52 billion, almost twice as high as economists had previously predicted. The December surplus implied Indonesia's third consecutive monthly trade surplus and fifth monthly trade surplus in full year 2013. However, considering the whole year, the trade balance still posted a deficit of USD $4.06 billion in 2013 as the total value of exports amounted to USD $182.57 billion while imports reached USD $186.63 billion.

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On Wednesday 5 February 2014, Statistics Indonesia (BPS, a non-departmental government institute) is expected to release Indonesia's official GDP growth figure for the year 2013. It is estimated that the outcome will be the lowest GDP growth figure since 2009 when Southeast Asia's largest economy grew 4.6 percent after feeling the impact of the global financial crisis. In 2013, again, Indonesia felt the negative influence of external troubles. And in combination with domestic factors, Indonesia's economic growth is expected to be around 5.7 percent in 2013.

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Today, Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent at the Board of Governors’ meeting. The lending facility rate and deposit facility rate were maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. An assessment of the economy in 2013 and outlook for 2014-2015 indicated that such policy is consistent with ongoing efforts to keep inflation within the target of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4±1 percent in 2015, as well as to help reduce the current account deficit to a sustainable level.

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Again positive news for Indonesia's trade balance. Last week, Statistics Indonesia announced that the largest economy of Southeast Asia posted a USD $776.8 million trade surplus in November 2013 (the largest monthly trade surplus since March 2012). After the (revised) USD $24 million trade surplus in October 2013, November was the second straight month in which the country posted a surplus. This development is important to gain investors' confidence as Indonesia's current account deficit has been a major cause for concern.

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As we approach the end of 2013 it is worth taking a look back to the performance of the stock market of Indonesia this year. At the start of the year, investors and analysts were positive that the country's benchmark stock index (known as the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) would post steady growth. Initial forecasts claimed that the IHSG could surpass the 5,000 points level by the end of 2013 from 4,300 at end-2012. The actual performance of the IHSG in fact exceeded expectations as in May 2013 the index moved beyond 5,200 points.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will ease to 3.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of 2013. Indonesia's wide current account deficit has been one of the major financial troubles this year and managed to weaken investors' confidence in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Thus, Indonesia became one of the hardest hit emerging countries after the Federal Reserve started to speculate about an ending to its quantitative easing program.

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Although widespread concerns about Indonesia's prolonged trade deficit (and current account deficit) are far from unfounded, the country's October 2013 trade data show a positive result. On Monday (02/12), Statistics Indonesia announced that Southeast Asia's largest economy posted a small trade surplus of USD $42.4 million in October after having recorded a trade deficit of USD $810 million in the previous month. This calender year (January to October 2013), the trade deficit has accumulated to USD $6.36 billion.

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Currently, one of Indonesia's main financial issues (and one which puts serious pressures on the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate) is the country's wide current account deficit. According to data from Statistics Indonesia, Indonesia's current account deficit totaled USD $8.4 billion in the third quarter of 2013. This figure is equivalent to a whopping 3.8 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). Generally, a current account deficit that exceeds 2.5 percent of GDP is considered unsustainable.

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This week, a group of Dutch politicians and businessmen, led by prime minister Mark Rutte, will pay a four day visit to Indonesia. The aim of the visit is to smoothen bilateral relations and search for business opportunities between both countries. This Dutch group, which includes more than one hundred Dutch company delegates, forms the largest Dutch trade delegation that has visited Southeast Asia's biggest economy in the modern history. However, relations between the Netherlands and Indonesia are still complex today.

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