The non-oil & gas industry of Indonesia grew 5.56 percent in the first quarter of 2014. Although general economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy has slowed to 5.21 percent in the first quarter, several industries such as the Food and Beverage Processing Industry, the Transportation Equipment Industry, Machinery & Equipment Industry, as well as Farming & Plantation-based Industries post strong growth. The Indonesian Industry Ministry targets a 6.5 percentage rate for the country's industrial sector in 2014.

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The Indonesian government announced to revise its GDP growth target for 2014 after seeing the disappointing economic growth result in the first quarter of 2014. Last week, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) had announced that GDP growth in Q1-2014 only amounted to 5.21 percent, far below official growth targets as well as analysts' forecasts. Indonesia's slowing growth was caused by slowing exports, brought on by the slow global recovery, China's slowing economy and the temporary impact of the ban on exports of unprocessed minerals.

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The Indonesian government revised down its target for the country's manufacturing growth in 2014 to 6 percent year-on-year (yoy) from 6.4 to 6.8 percent (yoy) previously. Main reason for the downgrade was the lower than expected GDP growth result in the first quarter of 2014. Earlier this week, Statistics Indonesia announced that the Indonesian economy expanded 5.21 percent in Q1-2014, the slowest quarterly growth pace since the fourth quarter of 2009. Last year, Indonesia's manufacturing sector grew 6.19 percent (yoy).

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects Indonesia's economic growth this year to slow slightly compared to the 5.78 percent growth rate recorded in 2013. ADB's Country Director for Indonesia, Adrian Ruthenberg, said that GDP growth of Southeast Asia's largest economy is expected to slow to 5.7 percent in 2014 but will accelerate to 6 percent in 2015. The ADB's forecast is based on the assumption that Indonesia's legislative and presidential elections will run smoothly as well as continued government effort to improve the investment climate.

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According to the Asian Development Bank's latest annual Asian Development Outlook (which provides an analysis of economic performance for the past year and near future), developing Asia is expected to extend its steady growth. The region’s growth is projected to edge up from 6.1 percent in 2013 to 6.2 percent in 2014 and 6.4 percent in 2015. Moderating growth in China (PRC) as its economy adjusts to more balanced growth will offset to some extent the stronger demand expected from the industrial countries as their economies recover.

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Singapore-based DBS Bank predicts that household consumption in Indonesia will grow 5.6 percent (yoy) in the first semester of 2014, which is slightly higher than the growth recorded in the last three years. Gundy Cahyadi, economist at the DBS Bank, said that the main reason for this accelerated household consumption is the legislative election that will be held on 9 April 2014. Traditionally, consumption peaks in times of elections. Household consumption is one of the main pillars of Indonesia's economic growth, accounting for 55 percent of GDP.

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Contrary to the World Bank and Bank Indonesia that both revised down forecasts for economic growth of Indonesia in 2014, the government of Indonesia is still convinced that it can meet the target of 5.8 to 6.0 percent as has been set in the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014). In its most recent Indonesia Economic Quarterly report, the World Bank said it expects Indonesia’s economic growth to reach 5.3 percent in 2014, while Bank Indonesia targets a 5.7 percentage growth rate.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) lowered its forecast for growth of Southeast Asia's largest economy in 2014 from the range of 5.8 - 6.2 percent to 5.5 - 5.9 percent as expansion of domestic consumption and exports are less robust than previously estimated. As such, Bank Indonesia implied that economic expansion of Indonesia will slow down further. Starting from 2011, gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Indonesia has declined steadily from 6.5 percent to 5.8 percent in 2013.

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According to a recent survey of Schroder Investment Management Indonesia, subsidiary of the British multinational asset management firm and a leading independent international asset management and private banking group, Indonesian investors feel more confident to invest in Indonesia in 2014. Director of Schroder Indonesia Michael Tjoajadi stated that confidence of Indonesian investors has increased due to improving economic conditions and the long-term prospects of Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Indonesia Investments has updated its overview of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) in the Macroeconomic Indicators section. Although Indonesia's GDP growth has slowed in the past two years amid global financial troubles and uncertainty in combination with a number of internal financial weaknesses (the country's wide current account deficit, high inflation and higher interest rate environment), it can still be labeled robust at 5.78 percent in 2013. This overview includes a discussion on GDP per capita and income distribution.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Tuesday (05/08) that Indonesia’s economy grew 5.12 percent in the second quarter of 2014 from the same quarter last year. This means that gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Indonesia has continued the slowing trend it has been experiencing since 2011. The 5.12 percentage point GDP growth in Q2-2014 is the slowest growth pace that has been recorded by Southeast Asia’s largest economy since the fourth quarter of 2009. What explains this slowing economic growth of Indonesia?

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Senior economist at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF), Didier Damanhuri, believes that Indonesia’s two presidential candidates - Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto - are both similar in economic approach as both men are primarily focused on high gross domestic product (GDP) growth as the measurement for economic development, while, in fact, many countries that only focus on GDP growth show a high degree of economic inequality.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia’s economy to grow by 5.3 percent in the second quarter of 2014. If realized, it means that gross domestic product (GDP) of Southeast Asia’s largest economy will accelerate from the disappointing GDP growth result recorded in the first quarter of 2014 (5.21 percent). Perry Warjiyo, Deputy Governor at Bank Indonesia, said that growth in Q2-2014 will be primarily supported by household consumption and investments which traditionally peak in the second quarter.

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The government of Indonesia will submit a new draft proposal for the 2014 Revised State Budget (APBN-P 2014) on 20 May 2014. Of the seven basic macroeconomic assumptions in the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014), three assumptions are proposed to be revised. These involve general economic growth, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate, and crude oil lifting. The government felt that the assumptions need a revision as results in the first quarter of 2014 have not been up to expectation.

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After Statistics Indonesia (BPS) had announced on Monday (05/05) that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.21 percent year-on-year (yoy) in the first quarter of 2014 (considerably below analysts' projections of around 5.6 percent), concerns have risen about the country's economic expansion for the remainder of the year. The government of Indonesia targets a GDP growth rate of between 5.8 and 6.0 percent (yoy). However, several international institutions do not agree with this optimistic target.

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The benchmark Indonesia stock index (IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) moved sideways on Monday's trading day (05/05) influenced by Indonesia's disappointing GDP growth result in the first quarter of 2014 in combination with mixed Asian stock indices. At the start of the day, the index was up as investors believed that the Q1-2014 GDP growth result would be in line with expectations. However, after Statistics Indonesia announced the growth rate, the IHSG fell, although stayed in the green zone.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Monday (05/05) that the economy of Indonesia - Southeast Asia's largest economy - grew at a much slower pace in the first quarter of 2014 than had been expected by analysts. Gross domestic product growth slowed to 5.21 percent (year-on-year) in Q1-2014, significantly down from the 6.03 percentage growth (yoy) that was recorded in Q1-2013. Gross domestic fixed capital formation (GFCF) slowed to 5.13 percent from 5.9 percent in the same period last year.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the country's economic growth in 2015 is targeted in the range of 5.5 to 6.3 percent. Amid further Federal Reserve tapering and possible interest rate hikes in the world's largest economy, chances of capital outflows from emerging markets (including Indonesia) are becoming larger. Basri said that these global conditions impact on GDP growth, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and inflation. Therefore, 2015 is a transition year, reflected by tighter economic projections and state spending.

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Chairman of Indonesia's Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) Suryo Bambang Sulisto stated that the most crucial problem which Indonesia is facing currently as well as in the foreseeable future is unemployment. Sulisto said that while the population of Indonesia has grown continuously in the past decade, unaffected by family planning programs, employment opportunities have not grown accordingly. In fact, they have declined. At end-2013, Indonesia's unemployment rate stood at 6.3 percent (of the total labor force).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's economic growth to slow to 5.77 percent (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2014. However, despite this further slowing trend, the institution is content with recent macroeconomic developments: external demand is growing, while domestic demand is moderating, thus impacting positively on the country's current account deficit as well as inflation. Household consumption is expected to have grown in Q1-2014 due to the holding of legislative elections on 9 April 2014.

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