The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) showed that it is willing to lend a helping hand to try and boost Indonesia’s economic growth by cutting its benchmark interest rate again. On 19 September 2019 – the last day of its two-day monthly policy meeting – Bank Indonesia cut its BI 7-day reverse repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25 percent, while the deposit facility and lending facility rates were lowered (by 25 bps) to 4.50 percent and 6.00 percent, respectively.

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Again, it came as a surprise to us that Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) decided to cut its benchmark interest rate (the BI Seven-day Reverse Repo Rate) by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.50 percent at the monetary policy meeting of August that was organized on 21-22 August 2019.

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At July's two-day monetary policy meeting (held on 17-18 July 2019), the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) surprised us by deciding to cut the benchmark BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75 percent. Meanwhile, the deposit facility and lending facility rates were lowered - also by 25 bps - to 5.00 percent and 6.50 percent, respectively.

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In line with expectations, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to leave its benchmark interest rate – the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate – unchanged at 6.00 percent, while also maintaining its deposit facility and lending facility rates at 5.25 percent and 6.75 percent, respectively, at the two-day monthly monetary policy meeting that was held on 19 and 20 June 2019.

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In line with expectations, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to leave its benchmark interest rate – the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate – unchanged at 6.00 percent, while also maintaining its deposit facility and lending facility rates at 5.25 percent and 6.75 percent, respectively, at the two-day monthly monetary policy meeting that was held on 19 and 20 June 2019.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on Friday (08.03.2019) that the country's foreign exchange reserves grew USD $3.2 billion to reach the level of USD $123.3 billion at the end of February 2019 (the highest level since May 2018). Rising foreign exchange assets is a positive trend and gives Bank Indonesia more ammunition to combat volatility in the (still vulnerable) rupiah exchange rate.

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Based on a survey that was conducted by the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), the nation's consumer price index is forecast to rise modestly in February 2019.

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In line with our estimates the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its interest rates unchanged at the January policy meeting that was held on 16-17 January 2019. The benchmark BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate was held at 6.00 percent, while the deposit facility and lending facility rates were kept at 5.25 percent and 6.75 percent, respectively.

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Although we predicted in our latest research report that Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) would raise its benchmark interest rate at the two-day monetary policy meeting on 14-15 November 2018, we were still taken by surprise after the decision was announced. After all, the rupiah had appreciated significantly in the days after the launch of our October research report.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its benchmark interest rate (the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate) unchanged at 5.75 percent at the October 2018 policy meeting (22-23 October). Meanwhile, the deposit facility and lending facility rates were kept at 5.00 percent and 6.50 percent, respectively.

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Contrary to expectations, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its monetary policy unchanged at the July policy meeting. The benchmark interest rate (BI rate) was kept at 6.50 percent, while the deposit facility rate and lending facility rate were kept at 4.50 percent and 7.00 percent, respectively. The 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which is set to become the central bank's new benchmark on 19 August 2016 - replacing the BI rate - was left at 5.25 percent.

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In the first three policy meetings of 2016, Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) cut its benchmark BI rate gradually yet aggressively from 7.50 percent to 6.75 percent as inflation, the rupiah rate and Indonesia's current account deficit were regarded as 'under control'. At the same time, Indonesia's lender of last resort acknowledged the BI rate has failed to influence borrowing costs and market liquidity effectively and therefore decided to adopt the seven-day reverse repurchase rate (reverse repo) as the nation's new benchmark starting from August 2016.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) revised down its projection for Indonesia's economic growth in 2016 to the range of 5.0 - 5.4 percent (y/y), slightly below its previous forecast in the range of 5.2 - 5.6 percent (y/y). Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said the central bank decided to trim its projection for gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year due to sluggish global economic growth, low commodity prices, and Indonesia's slightly disappointing Q1-2016 GDP growth figure at 4.92 percent (y/y).

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Indonesia's balance of payments registered a deficit in the first quarter of 2016. Based on the latest data from Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), the deficit stood at USD $287 million in Q1-2016, down from a USD $1.3 billion surplus in the same quarter last year. The balance of payments deficit was the result of the nation's Q1-2016 capital and financial transaction surpluses (USD $4.17 billion) not being able to cover the current account deficit (CAD). Indonesia's Q1-2016 CAD shrank to USD $4.67 billion, or 2.14 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP).

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If we look back on the month of April, two important matters - related to the economy - occurred in Indonesia this month: (1) in the first week of April, the Indonesian government managed to complete the Revised 2016 State Budget (RAPBN-P 2016), and, one week later, (2) the central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced it will adopt a new benchmark monetary tool per 19 August 2016 - the so-called seven-day reverse repurchase rate - that is to replace the existing BI rate (which fails to influence market liquidity effectively).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects to see deflation in April 2016 on the back of controlled food prices as the harvest season has arrived. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said a central bank survey shows deflation of 0.33 percent month-to-month (m/m) during the first three weeks of April. Besides lower food prices, Martowardojo also attributes April deflation to the government's decision to cut fuel prices (premium gasoline and diesel) by IDR 500 (approx. USD $0.04) per liter per 1 April. This move led to a 4 percent drop in public transportation tariffs.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on Friday (15/04) it will adopt a new monetary tool per 19 August 2016 that is to replace the existing BI rate which is considered too inefficient to influence market liquidity as it is not directly tied to Indonesia's money markets. The seven-day reverse repurchase rate (reverse repo), which stood at 5.50 percent in the central bank's last auction, is to become the nation's new benchmark. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo, who communicated through a teleconference from Washington DC, emphasized that the central bank will not change its monetary stance.

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In line with expectation, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) cut its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 6.75 percent on Thursday (17/03) at its two-day policy meeting. It is the third straight month of monetary easing in Southeast Asia's largest economy. In the preceding two months the lender of last resort had also cut borrowing costs by 0.25 percent, each month. Furthermore, the deposit and lending facility rates were also cut by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent and 7.25 percent, respectively (effective per 18 March 2016).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects to see deflation at 0.15 percent month-to-month (m/m) in February 2016. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said lower (government) administered prices in combination with low core inflation will be the recipe for deflation in the second month of the year. The lower administered prices that are primarily the cause of deflation consist of fuel prices, air fares and 12-kilogram liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) canisters. In the first month of the year Indonesian inflation accelerated to 4.14 percent (y/y).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) relatively high in order to safeguard Indonesia's financial stability in 2016 (instead of seeking accelerated economic growth through a rate cut). Despite easing pressures on inflation and the country's current account balance, Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that persistent global uncertainty (referring to the looming US Fed Fund Rate hike and China's slowdown) justifies the tight monetary stance.

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