Once again, the Indonesian rupiah depreciated beyond the IDR 13,500 per US dollar level on Wednesday (05/08), touching its weakest level since the Asian Financial Crisis (which began as a financial crisis but would soon develop into a deep economic, political and social crisis in Indonesia) in 1997-1998. For some Indonesian policy makers, business players and investors the current weak rupiah therefore brings back bad memories. However, there are significant changes between conditions now and those in 1997-1998.

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There are still persistent external and internal factors that make it difficult for Indonesian stocks to rise. By 12:07 am local Jakarta time, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) was down 0.25 percent to 4,788.37 points. Meanwhile, the rupiah had appreciated 0.36 percent to IDR 13,462 per US dollar by the same time according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. What are the external (foreign) and internal (domestic) factors that influence the performance of Indonesian assets on today’s trading day (04/08)?

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The pace of economic growth of Indonesia is expected to remain below five percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015 according to Reuters poll involving 22 analysts. In fact, the poll shows that further slowing economic growth is expected. In the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia’s economic growth came at 4.71 percent (y/y), the weakest growth pace in six years. According to the poll, analysts see a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 4.61 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015.

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Although consumer confidence among Indonesian consumers remained relatively high, there has been a decline detected in 2015. Consumer optimism has fallen as Indonesia’s economy is growing at its slowest pace in six years due to worldwide low commodity prices (giving rise to Indonesia’s weak export performance), China's economic slowdown, uneven recoveries in the US and Europe, while spending of the Indonesian government remained weak (amid bureaucratic hurdles and difficult land acquisition for projects).

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Again, Indonesia’s rupiah is touching the IDR 13,400 per US dollar psychological boundary. According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency had depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 13,405 per US dollar at 11:22 am local Jakarta time on Thursday (23/07), a level last seen when the country was still plagued by the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998. Crossing the psychological boundary could mean Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) will intervene again to support the currency in order to safeguard people’s confidence in the currency.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced that it cut its 2015 and 2016 economic growth forecasts for both China and other developing Asian countries due to the persistent economic slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. China’s economic expansion is projected to reach 7 percent (y/y) in 2015 and 6.8 percent (y/y) in 2016. Both these outlooks were down 0.2 percentage point from the ADB’s previous projection. Due to the size of China’s economy, economic slowing will drag down growth in the whole Asian region.

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As expected Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) refrained from adjusting its interest rate regime at Tuesday’s Board of Governor’s meeting (14/07). The key BI rate was kept at 7.50 percent, while the overnight deposit rate (Fasbi) and lending facility rate were left at 5.50 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively. Bank Indonesia believes that the current interest rate environment is in line with its efforts to bring down inflation while supporting Indonesia’s ailing rupiah ahead of expected further monetary tightening in the USA later this year.

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In line with expectation and the historic trend, Indonesia’s car sales rose - on a monthly basis - in June 2015 ahead of the Idul Fitri celebrations (that mark the end of the Islamic holy fasting month). Car sales in Indonesia usually increase ahead of Idul Fitri (also known as Lebaran), a tradition which involves the exodus of millions of Indonesians from the cities to their places of origin. Before the journey to the villages a portion of these travelers are eager to buy a new car, a decision often influenced by promotional campaigns and discount programs.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2015 to 3.3 percent (y/y), from 3.5 percent (y/y) previously, as the harsh winter impacted on the US economy and drags down global growth accordingly. In the first quarter of 2015, the US economy contracted 0.2 percent (y/y). Moreover, turmoil in Greece and China cause great volatility on international financial markets, the Washington-based institution said in an update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) on Thursday (09/07).

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The World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia in 2015 from 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 4.7 percent (y/y) as private consumption, which accounts for about 55 percent of total economic growth in Indonesia, is estimated to weaken further in the second half of 2015 while government spending has been lower than expected (causing subdued fixed investment). Furthermore, persistent low commodity prices and tighter credit conditions provide further pressures that led to the extreme downward revision.

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Thomas Lembong, Head of Indonesia's Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), said the 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) economic growth pace of Indonesia in the second quarter of 2017 was rather disappointing as consumption remained bleak. Only Indonesia's export and investment realization showed an improvement, Lembong added. But, overall, Indonesia's economic growth stagnated.

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After concluding its monthly two-day policy meeting on Thursday (20/07) the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to leave its interest rate environment unchanged. The BI 7-day (Reverse) Repo Rate (BI-7 day RR Rate) was kept at 4.75 percent, while the deposit facility and lending facility rates were kept at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively.

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The latest World Bank projection shows the economy of Indonesia remains promising despite the Washington-based institution having lowered its forecast for Indonesia's full-year 2017 gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.1 percentage point to 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the June 2017 edition of its Global Economic Prospect. The World Bank emphasized the Indonesian economy remains relatively strong and is among the most promising emerging markets.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) maintained its benchmark interest rate - the 7-day reverse repurchase rate - at 4.75 percent at the policy meeting on 17-18 May 2017, a decision that is in line with analysts' forecasts. Bank Indonesia said the decision is consistent with its efforts to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability "by driving the domestic economic recovery process", while continue to monitor external threats stemming from US policy directions and geopolitical conditions, specifically in the Korea Peninsula, as well as domestic threats stemming from inflationary pressures and ongoing consolidation in the banking and corporate sectors.

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Overall, market participants are satisfied with Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2017. Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) released the nation's official first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday (05/05). It showed a 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth pace in Q1-2017, in line with - and even above some institutions' - expectations. Moreover, the figure confirms that Indonesia's economic growth continues to accelerate. In the first quarters of 2015 and 2016 GDP growth was recorded at 4.71 percent (y/y) and 4.92 percent (y/y), respectively.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark interest rate (seven-day reverse repo rate) at 4.75 percent at the April policy meeting (19-20 April 2017), while its deposit facility rate and lending facility rate stayed at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. Bank Indonesia considers the current interest rate environment appropriate to face global uncertainties as well as rising inflationary pressures at home.

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Whether it was caused by pressure from the Indonesian government, or, whether US multinational banking and financial services firm JP Morgan Chase itself came to the conclusion that its decision to double downgrade Indonesia from overweight to underweight (in November 2016) was excessive remains unknown. What is known is that JP Morgan upgraded its investment recommendation on Indonesian stocks to neutral from underweight on Monday (16/01). Main reason for this upgrade is that redemption and bond volatility risks have now played out, in the view of JP Morgan.

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Having an office in the center of Jakarta is usually an ambition of foreign and local businessmen in Indonesia. An office in Jakarta's Central Business District, the heart of the capital, is a strategic location (located close to the headquarters of numerous other companies that are active in Indonesia) and it adds a certain status to your company even though you will have to battle severe traffic congestion each time you visit or leave the office (but it is fair to say that also in the other parts of Jakarta traffic is immense).

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The government of Indonesia suspended all cooperation with US multinational banking and financial services firm JP Morgan Chase after the US bank double downgraded Indonesia from overweight to underweight without elaborating too much on the exact motives behind this drastic move. According to Indonesian government officials this downgrade is excessive and lacks evidentiary support or rational justification. Moreover, they argue this "misleading" downgrade has a big psychological impact on investors and therefore it "disturbs Indonesia's financial stability".

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American multinational finance company Goldman Sachs Group Inc believes Indonesia currently has strong enough economic fundamentals to cope with monetary tightening in the USA. Indonesia is in a better position now compared to 2013 when the taper tantrum (the winding down of the US Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program) led to massive capital outflows from emerging markets (and Indonesia was among the biggest victims with the rupiah weakening more than 25 percent against the US dollar in 2013).

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