Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the country's current account deficit, the broadest measure of international transactions, may widen in the second quarter of 2014 as many local companies engage in business expansion. Such expansion usually triggers an increased amount of imports, thus impacting on the trade balance. A widening current account deficit in the second quarter of the year is a normal trend. The balance usually improves in the third and fourth quarters.

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Bayu Krisnamurthi, Indonesian Deputy Trade Minister, expects that domestic consumption will rise by approximately 40 percent during the holy Islamic fasting month of Ramadan, which starts on 28 June 2014, and subsequent Idul Fitri (Lebaran) celebrations. Traditionally, this period of festivities brings along inflationary pressures as consumers spend more money on food, transportation, clothes and souvenirs. Moreover, Krisnamurthi stated that the center of consumption will shift to the regions.

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On 25 May 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve political and economic topics such as updates on the presidential election, a new high profile corruption case, fuel subsidies, oil & gas tenders, a stock market update, and more.

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Indonesian newly installed Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Chairul Tanjung expects deflation in May 2014 due to stable prices of the main agricultural and food commodities. After Tanjung was appointed to replace Hatta Rajasa, who resigned from his post to focus on his vice-presidential bid in the July presidential election, Tanjung announced that he will prioritize policies that foster stable food prices as well as fiscal stability. In April 2014, Indonesia recorded deflation of 0.02 percent (month-to-month).

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At the Board of Governors Meeting (08/05), Bank Indonesia decided to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) at 7.50 percent, the Lending Facility at 7.50 percent and the Deposit Facility at 5.75 percent. Bank Indonesia considers this monetary policy consistent with efforts to direct inflation back to its target level of 4.5 ± 1 percent in 2014 and 4.0 ± 1 percent in 2015, as well as to further ease the country's current account deficit to a more sustainable level. On Friday, Bank Indonesia is expected to release current account data covering Q1-2014.

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On 4 May 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such as macroeconomic assumptions of the Indonesian government, April inflation, the March trade balance, April manufacturing, an update on the rupiah, the 2014 presidential election, and more.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) released its '2013 Economic Report on Indonesia' earlier this week. This report discusses in great detail both global and domestic economic dynamics as well as policy responses. The year 2013 was a year full of challenges for the Indonesian economy because of changes in global economic conditions (US Federal Reserve tapering), requiring a range of structural policy changes to steer the economy of Indonesia towards a more balanced growth and restored macroeconomic stability.

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On Friday (02/05), Statistics Indonesia announced that Indonesia recorded deflation of 0.02 percent in April 2014. This outcome is in line with analysts' previous forecasts. The months April and May usually bring deflation or low inflation to Indonesia due to the traditional peak of the harvest season. The annual inflation rate of Indonesia has now eased to 7.25 percent (year-on-year) in April 2014, while calender year inflation declined slightly to 1.39 percent. Of the 82 Indonesian cities, 39 experienced deflation.

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On 27 April 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such as investment realization in Q1-2014, a revision of the Negative Investment List, company profiles of Adaro Energy and Astra Agro Lestari, and more.

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Head of Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik or BPS) Suryamin said that inflation in April 2014 is estimated to be low or will turn into deflation as food stockpiles in a number of regions are sufficient amid the peak of the harvest season. Suryamin based his estimation on BPS monitoring conducted from 17 April. The monitoring indicated that prices of the main food commodities (which include rice, chili, chicken meat, cooking oil as well as beef) are stable or even declining from the previous month.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate on Monday (02/03). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency depreciated 0.30 percent to IDR 12,970 per US dollar, a six-year low. Apart from general bullish US dollar momentum in recent months (amid monetary tightening in the USA), the rupiah weakened due to Bank Indonesia’s signals that it tolerates a weaker currency in a move to boost exports (limiting the country’s current account deficit), and due to China’s interest rates cut.

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In a surprise move, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to lower its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent at the Board of Governor’s Meeting on Tuesday (17/02). The deposit facility rate (Fasbi) was also lowered by 25 basis points (to 5.50 percent), while the lending facility rate remained steady at 8.00 percent. In a press release the central bank stated that the current policy direction is estimated to moderate the country’s wide current account deficit further, while inflation remains under control.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated and Indonesian stocks rose on Wednesday (04/02) on the back of rallying oil prices, a successful bond auction, easing tensions in Europe, and weak US factory orders. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.21 percent to IDR 12,630 per US dollar on Wednesday (04/03). Meanwhile, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) climbed 0.45 percent to 5,315.28 points.

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The trade balance of Indonesia improved in 2014. Over the whole year of 2014 Indonesia posted a USD $1.88 billion trade deficit, significantly better than the USD $4.08 billion deficit it recorded a year earlier. Today (02/02), Statistics Indonesia announced that Indonesia posted a USD $0.19 billion trade surplus in the last month of the year after having recorded a USD $0.42 billion trade deficit in the preceding month. The improved performance is mainly due to the country’s growing non-oil & gas surplus and narrowing oil & gas deficit.

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In line with the performance of other Asian emerging currencies, Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate appreciated on Monday (12/01) as the fall in US wages (released late last week) caused speculation that the Federal Reserve will - for now - delay its plan to start raising US borrowing costs. Despite solid growing US non-farm payrolls in December 2014, US wages (average hourly earnings) fell the most in eight years. Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.38 percent to IDR 12,599 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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The latest survey of Indonesia’s central bank indicates that consumer confidence fell in December 2014. The central bank’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.6 points to 116.5 in the last month of 2014 (a score above 100 signals optimism among consumers) due to the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices implemented in November 2014. This move triggered higher prices of products and services. The central bank’s Consumer Confidence Index is based on interviews with 4,600 households in 18 Indonesian cities.

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Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) fell 0.43 percent to 5,220.00 points on Monday (05/01) amid profit taking on a relatively quiet trading day on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.55 percent to IDR 12,614 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index as concerns about Greece exiting the euro intensified and boosted US dollar demand. Moreover, market participants were still reacting to Indonesia’s latest trade and inflation data.

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Indonesia’s inflation pace accelerated in December 2014, exceeding estimations of analysts and Indonesia’s central bank. December inflation, 2.46 percent (m/m) or 8.36 percent (y/y), accelerated due to the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices (introduced in November) and volatile food prices (fluctuating rice and chili prices at the year-end). Other factors that contributed to high inflation in 2014 were higher electricity tariffs for households and industries, the higher price of 12 kg LPG, and an airfare adjustment.

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Indonesia’s inflation reached 2.46 percent month-to-month (m/m) in December 2014 due to the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices implemented on 18 November 2014. On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, Indonesia’s inflation was recorded at 8.36 percent, slightly lower than the result in 2013 (8.38 percent). Inflation has been high in 2013 and 2014 as the Indonesian government raised prices of subsidized fuels in both years in an attempt to relieve fiscal pressures brought about by costly oil imports.

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A team of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by David Cowen (advisor at the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department), visited several Indonesian cities in the first three weeks of December 2014 to conduct research on the economic fundamentals of Southeast Asia’s largest economy. This research included the study of recent macroeconomic developments as well as the formulation of prognosis scenarios for the short and middle term. The IMF team held discussions with the government, Bank Indonesia, private entrepreneurs and scholars.

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