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Indonesia's Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) has released the direct investment figures - both foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic direct investment (DDI) - for the fourth quarter of 2016 (implying we now also know the full-year 2016 figures). The BKPM data show a number of interesting developments that we outline below.
Automotive manufacturer Toyota Motor Corporation already realized 70 percent of its total of IDR 20 trillion (approx. USD $15 billion) worth of investment commitments in Indonesia. Japan-based Toyota will materialize its investment commitments gradually up to 2019. Warih Andang Tjahjono, Vice President Director at Toyota Motor Manufacturing Indonesia (TMMI), said his company invested IDR 10 trillion in late-2016, both in the form of a capital injection and for additional production facilities.
Investment realization in Indonesia's capital city of Jakarta fell to IDR 51.2 trillion (approx. USD $3.8 billion) in full-year 2016, down from IDR 55 trillion worth of investment in the preceding year. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Jakarta was recorded at IDR 41.5 trillion in 2016, while domestic direct investment (DDI) reached IDR 9.7 trillion. What explains this overall decline of investment in Jakarta?
The Indonesian government now allows private investors to develop oil refineries in Indonesia, effectively ending state-owned energy Pertamina's (virtual) monopoly. Before this new regulation, private companies had to cooperate with Pertamina to build oil refineries in Southeast Asia's largest economy. The new policy is an effort to boost domestic oil refinery capacity in Indonesia (hence limiting the need for refined fuel imports) and improve the investment climate by opening this industry to the private sector. This sector can also apply for tax incentives.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that the nation's current account deficit (CAD) eased to 1.83 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2016, improving from a revised 2.2 percent of GDP deficit in the preceding quarter. Bank Indonesia further informed that the CAD will most likely remain in the range of 2.0 - 2.5 percent of GDP in full-year 2016. In 2015 Indonesia's CAD eased to 2.1 percent of GDP. Since late-2011 Southeast Asia's largest economy has had to cope with a wide current account deficit.
Indonesian Communication & Information Minister Rudiantara informed on Wednesday (02/11) that American multinational technology company Apple Inc. - famous for designing, developing, and selling consumer electronics, computer software, and online services - will start building its second-biggest research and development facility in Indonesia somewhere in 2017. Although Apple has not commented on the news, Rudiantara confirmed that he had met several representatives from both Apple's Asia Pacific office and the US headquarters.
Indonesia's rupiah currency is performing remarkably well today. By 13:20 pm local Jakarta time the rupiah had appreciated 0.75 percent to IDR 12,943 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). There are several factors that are pushing the rupiah in a stronger position. Enny Sri Hartati, economist at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef), informed that capital inflows are the result of the government's tax amnesty program and rising foreign direct investment (FDI). Meanwhile, there is the impact of the US presidential debate.
Total foreign direct investment (FDI) in the ASEAN region (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) fell USD $10 billion - or 7.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) - in full-year 2015 according to information from the ASEAN Secretariat. Particularly FDI originating from ASEAN's dialogue partners slid considerably. ASEAN has 10 dialogue partners: Australia, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Russia, and the United States.
Indonesia's Industry Ministry is eager to intensify cooperation with Switzerland. On Tuesday (02/08) Indonesian Industry Minister Airlangga Hartanto stated that the European nation selected Indonesia as a key priority country in terms of economic cooperation and partnerships in the industry sector. Indonesia is ranked fourth in terms of priority investment destinations in Asia for Switzerland's foreign direct investment (FDI). Both nations have had positive diplomatic relations that date back to 1952.
Direct investment in Indonesia (both domestic and foreign) totaled IDR 298.1 trillion in the first half of 2016, up 14.8 percent from investment realization in the same period one year earlier. Foreign direct investment (FDI) was recorded at IDR 195.5 trillion¹, up 12.3 percent (y/y) - and accounting for 65.6 percent of total investment realization in the first six months of 2016 - while domestic direct investment (DDI) rose 20.0 percent (y/y) over the same period. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, FDI into Indonesia rose 7.9 percent, considerably lower than the 17.1 percent (q/q) growth pace in the preceding quarter.
Latest Columns FDI
The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) said that total realized investments in Indonesia in the third quarter of 2013 was recorded at IDR 100.5 trillion (USD $8.89 billion). Of this total figure, IDR 67.0 trillion (USD $5.93 billion) was accounted for by foreign direct investment (FDI), while the remainder (IDR 33.5 trillion) was classified as domestic direct investment (DDI). The total investment realization of IDR 100.5 trillion was the highest ever quarterly investment figure since the BKPM releases these quarterly results.
Apart from the five tax incentives that I have mentioned in a previous column, the Indonesian government also intends to ease two other tax rules in order to boost investments in Indonesia from 2014 onwards. These are the tax holiday and tax allowance. Relaxation of the tax holiday involves an alteration to the period as well as the size of the investment, and relaxation of procedural difficulties. Relaxation of the tax allowance involves the revision of the number of sectors that are eligible and a relaxation of procedures in the form of tax clearance.
Growth of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in Indonesia has continued to slow down in the first six months of 2013. In the first quarter of 2013, GFCF rose 5.78 percent but in the second quarter the pace fell to 4.67 percent. These results are much lower than last year's quarterly growth rates as can be seen in the table below. In fact, the growth rate in Q2-2013 constitutes the lowest growth rate in the last 13 quarters. In Q2-2013, all sectors experienced weakening investments except for domestic machinery and equipment.
After several years of significant foreign capital inflows into Indonesia, a sharp contrast has been visible in recent weeks. Global panic that followed in the days after Ben Bernanke announced that the Federal Reserve intends to withdraw its quantitative easing program in 2014 (if economic recovery of the USA continues), hit Indonesia hard. It triggered a massive capital outflow from the country's stock exchange (IDX) as well as from government securities (Surat Berharga Negara, or SBN).
Although the United States continues its traditional focus on direct investments in developed countries, primarily in Western Europe, there has been a significant rise in US investments in Indonesia in recent years. Whereas US investments in the developed economies of Western Europe is mostly found in the financial sector and through holding companies, in developing Asia, the US is more focused on the manufacturing sector due to lower production costs. In the last two years, the US emerged as the second-largest investor in Indonesia after Japan.
Foreign investment in Indonesia has maintained its steady pace in the first quarter of 2013. Ahead of next year's presidential and legislative elections, which trigger uncertainties about the future course of the country, foreigners have bought more Indonesian stocks in Q1-2013 than in the four quarters of 2012 combined. Moreover, foreign direct investments (FDIs) have increased by 27 percent (YoY) in Q1-2013 and show an interesting shift towards Indonesia's manufacturing sector.
Rising American and European stock indices last Friday, helped to support Asian stock indices today (22 April 2013), including the Indonesia stock index (IHSG). However, the ongoing drama brought on by last Saturday's earthquake in China, impacted on the China stock index as well as on other Asian stock indices, including the IHSG. As the IHSG has been showing signs that it is overbought, market participants preferred to sell portions of their stock portfolios, resulting in a limited fall of the IHSG.
In Quarter I 2013 (January-March), total investment in Indonesia increased 30.6 percent to IDR 93.0 trillion (US $9.58 billion) compared to the same period in 2012 according to data from the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal, abbreviated BKPM), a government institution. Of this total amount, about seventy percent is accounted for by foreign direct investment, while the remaining thirty percent constitutes domestic direct investment.
This week, the World Bank published its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ, edition March 2013) titled 'Pressures Mounting'. It reports on key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these in a longer-term and global context. To read the whole report, please visit the World Bank's website at www.worldbank.org or download this edition directly through this link. Below we present the executive summary.
Despite the fact that Indonesia reported the world's third-highest GDP growth in 2012 (behind China's 7.4 percent and Saudi Arabia's 7.1 percent), supported by rising consumption by a burgeoning middle class and significant increased foreign direct investment, the country's performance in terms of competitiveness is disappointing. It is cheaper to import products from countries that contain competitive businesses than to produce them in Indonesia.
