Japanese investment in Indonesia has declined drastically in 2014 due to concern about the stability of Indonesian politics. Investment realization tumbled to USD $2.7 billion in 2014 from USD $4.7 billion in the previous year. The investment climate of Indonesia in 2014 was plagued by concern about the ‘political year’, referring to the legislative and presidential elections that were organized and the uncertainty they brought about as it was a tight race between market favorite Joko Widodo and controversial candidate Prabowo Subianto.

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The economy of Indonesia expanded 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 8,354 trillion (USD $664 billion) in 2014, the nation’s slowest annual growth pace since 2009, according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). As such, GDP growth failed to achieve the central government’s 5.5 percentage point growth target that was set in the 2014 State Budget. Indonesia’s economic growth has been slowing since 2011 when it still posted a 6.5 percentage point growth rate (y/y). However, growth is expected to rebound from here.

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Indonesian Trade Minister Rachmat Gobel said that the continuation of economic cooperation between Indonesia and Japan, as set out in the Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA), is to be reviewed soon by both countries. Gobel met Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yoichi Miyazawa in Tokyo today. In the IJEPA it was mentioned that cooperation between both countries can be reviewed after the bilateral free-trade agreement had been in effect for five years.

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On Monday (08/12) the World Bank released the December edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly, entitled ‘Delivering Chance’. In the report the World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia next year to 5.2 percent (y/y), from 5.6 percent (y/y) in the July edition of its flagship publication, due to weaker investment growth and sluggish exports. Indonesia’s GDP growth in 2014 is projected at 5.1 percent (y/y), slightly below the World Bank’s previous estimate of 5.2 percent.

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Government investment service agency Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) targets IDR 524 trillion (USD $42 billion) worth of investments in 2015, a 15 percent growth from estimated investment realization this year (IDR 450 trillion). BKPM is optimistic that after the ‘political year’ of 2014 (due to the legislative and presidential elections) the new government will push for the implementation of various infrastructure projects such as toll roads, harbours and airports, thus making Indonesia more attractive to foreign investors.

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As the number of foreign tourists rise rapidly and there is increasing demand for conferences, exhibitions and business meetings, Indonesia will see a massive inflow of investments for the construction of hotels and condominium hotels (condominium hotels combine features of apartments and hotels). In 2015, the value of new (condo) hotels projects is estimated at IDR 38.5 trillion (USD $3.2 billion), up 57.3 percent from last year. Locations that attract tourists and locations close to education centers are the primary choice.

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Global rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed Indonesia’s Sovereign Credit Rating at BBB-/stable outlook (investment grade status) on Thursday (13/11). This rating affirmation by the credit rating agency can be regarded as international recognition of prudent fiscal policy in Southeast Asia’s largest economy amid global uncertain times. Policy responses pursued by both the government and central bank of Indonesia have been well received by Fitch Ratings and managed to safeguard economic stability.

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On 19 October 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such as the performance of Indonesian stocks and the rupiah, foreign direct investments, an update on the coal mining sector, tax, the cement industry, palm oil, steel industry, and more.

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Newly elected presidential pair Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and running mate Jusuf Kalla, the pair that will guide Indonesia for the next five years starting from October 2014, propose to raise the target for economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy from 5.6 percent to 5.8 percent in 2015. Furthermore, the pair would like to set a stronger average rupiah rate at IDR 11,600 per US dollar over 2015 (from IDR 11,900 as set in the Revised 2015 State Budget). Several reasons are behind these ambitious targets.

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According to the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), Singapore is the largest foreign investor in Indonesia. In the first half of 2014, Indonesia received USD $3.4 billion worth of investments from Singapore. In total, foreign companies invested IDR 150 trillion (USD $12.9 billion) in Indonesia during the first six months of 2014. This is the highest amount of foreign investment that Indonesia has ever managed to attract in a six-month period. It also diluted fears that the legislative and presidential elections would cause a temporary slowdown.

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The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) said that total realized investments in Indonesia in the third quarter of 2013 was recorded at IDR 100.5 trillion (USD $8.89 billion). Of this total figure, IDR 67.0 trillion (USD $5.93 billion) was accounted for by foreign direct investment (FDI), while the remainder (IDR 33.5 trillion) was classified as domestic direct investment (DDI). The total investment realization of IDR 100.5 trillion was the highest ever quarterly investment figure since the BKPM releases these quarterly results.

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Apart from the five tax incentives that I have mentioned in a previous column, the Indonesian government also intends to ease two other tax rules in order to boost investments in Indonesia from 2014 onwards. These are the tax holiday and tax allowance. Relaxation of the tax holiday involves an alteration to the period as well as the size of the investment, and relaxation of procedural difficulties. Relaxation of the tax allowance involves the revision of the number of sectors that are eligible and a relaxation of procedures in the form of tax clearance.

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Growth of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in Indonesia has continued to slow down in the first six months of 2013. In the first quarter of 2013, GFCF rose 5.78 percent but in the second quarter the pace fell to 4.67 percent. These results are much lower than last year's quarterly growth rates as can be seen in the table below. In fact, the growth rate in Q2-2013 constitutes the lowest growth rate in the last 13 quarters. In Q2-2013, all sectors experienced weakening investments except for domestic machinery and equipment.

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After several years of significant foreign capital inflows into Indonesia, a sharp contrast has been visible in recent weeks. Global panic that followed in the days after Ben Bernanke announced that the Federal Reserve intends to withdraw its quantitative easing program in 2014 (if economic recovery of the USA continues), hit Indonesia hard. It triggered a massive capital outflow from the country's stock exchange (IDX) as well as from government securities (Surat Berharga Negara, or SBN).

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Although the United States continues its traditional focus on direct investments in developed countries, primarily in Western Europe, there has been a significant rise in US investments in Indonesia in recent years. Whereas US investments in the developed economies of Western Europe is mostly found in the financial sector and through holding companies, in developing Asia, the US is more focused on the manufacturing sector due to lower production costs. In the last two years, the US emerged as the second-largest investor in Indonesia after Japan.

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Foreign investment in Indonesia has maintained its steady pace in the first quarter of 2013. Ahead of next year's presidential and legislative elections, which trigger uncertainties about the future course of the country, foreigners have bought more Indonesian stocks in Q1-2013 than in the four quarters of 2012 combined. Moreover, foreign direct investments (FDIs) have increased by 27 percent (YoY) in Q1-2013 and show an interesting shift towards Indonesia's manufacturing sector.

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Rising American and European stock indices last Friday, helped to support Asian stock indices today (22 April 2013), including the Indonesia stock index (IHSG). However, the ongoing drama brought on by last Saturday's earthquake in China, impacted on the China stock index as well as on other Asian stock indices, including the IHSG. As the IHSG has been showing signs that it is overbought, market participants preferred to sell portions of their stock portfolios, resulting in a limited fall of the IHSG.

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In Quarter I 2013 (January-March), total investment in Indonesia increased 30.6 percent to IDR 93.0 trillion (US $9.58 billion) compared to the same period in 2012 according to data from the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal, abbreviated BKPM), a government institution. Of this total amount, about seventy percent is accounted for by foreign direct investment, while the remaining thirty percent constitutes domestic direct investment.

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This week, the World Bank published its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ, edition March 2013) titled 'Pressures Mounting'. It reports on key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these in a longer-term and global context. To read the whole report, please visit the World Bank's website at www.worldbank.org or download this edition directly through this link. Below we present the executive summary.

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Despite the fact that Indonesia reported the world's third-highest GDP growth in 2012 (behind China's 7.4 percent and Saudi Arabia's 7.1 percent), supported by rising consumption by a burgeoning middle class and significant increased foreign direct investment, the country's performance in terms of competitiveness is disappointing. It is cheaper to import products from countries that contain competitive businesses than to produce them in Indonesia.

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