With only one more day to go before the General Elections Commission (KPU) will release the official result of the July 2014 presidential election, it seems almost certain that it will take a Constitutional Court ruling for the final judgement. Over the weekend, data from KPU indicates that Joko Widodo has won the election by a margin of about five percentage points. However, his rival Prabowo Subianto has already stated that he will challenge the result as he claims that there are indications of fraud at several polling stations.

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Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who will end his second and final five-year term in October 2014, announced to meet both presidential candidates (Prabowo Subianto and Joko Widodo) in the country’s State Palace on Sunday (20/07). In this meeting, president Yudhoyono will emphasize the importance of a peaceful and orderly transition to the next government. Currently, it remains unknown who of the two candidates won the presidential election (held on 9 July 2014). Due to the tight race, chances of social unrest increase.

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Global real estate services firm Jones Lang LaSalle expects condominium sales in Indonesia to post a record-breaking figure in 2014, particularly supported by the current trend in Jakarta (Indonesia’s capital city) where people continue to shift to apartment living instead of detached or attached single-unit housing. Anton Sitorus, head of research at Jones Lang LaSalle, said that despite the weaker outlook for Indonesia’s property market, both developers and buyers have shown increased interest in developing and buying property.

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Although investors in Indonesian stocks received positive news from the USA after Federal Reserve Head Janet Yellen stated on Tuesday (15/07) that the US economic recovery remains incomplete therefore justifying the continuation of a loose monetary policy for the foreseeable future as well as solid economic expansion of 7.5 percent (yoy) in China during the second quarter of 2014, the domestic political context in Southeast Asia’s largest economy remains a concern. What are the latest political developments in Indonesia?

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The US dollar continues to depreciate against emerging currencies after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC meeting, released Wednesday (09/07), suggest that the US central bank will maintain historic low interest rates (0.0 - 0.25 percent) into 2015. The Fed informed that US interest rates hikes will only occur ”a considerable time” after the US asset-buying program (quantitative easing) has ended. Based on the latest minutes, this program is expected to end in October 2014.

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Although not all quick count scores indicate a Joko Widodo (Jokowi) win, Indonesia’s stock and financial markets have gained considerably on Thursday (10/07) - one day after the 2014 Indonesian presidential election - on speculation that the General Elections Commission (KPU) will declare Jokowi the winner of the election on 22 July 2014. Out a total of 12 quick counts (mentioned below), eight showed a Jokowi win. Importantly, these seven quick counts include the authoritative agencies that traditionally have been highly accurate.

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Since 07:00 am local time, Indonesians have been able to cast their votes for the country’s presidential election; a tight race between Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto. Despite the narrow gap between both presidential candidates (based on various surveys), the election has been conducted in good order so far. The polling stations will close at 13:00 pm local time. Hereafter, live quick count scores, which are traditionally quite accurate, will be presented. By approximately 17:00 pm local time, the quick counts are expected to be finalized.

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Today, the Indonesian people decide who will become the next president of the world’s largest archipelago for the period 2014-2019. The Indonesian electorate numbers about 185.6 million (out a total population of 250 million) and they have only two options to choose from: Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto, which also implies that the election will only require one round. Voting starts at 07:00 am local time and the ballot boxes close at 13:00 pm local time. Indonesian financial markets are closed.

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Wednesday 9 July 2014, is a big day for Indonesia as on that day the Indonesian people will vote for the successor of incumbent Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono who had been given the mandate to lead two five-year presidential terms between 2004 and 2014 (and who is the only president in the era of Reformasi that was re-elected by the people). Now, the people have to choose between Joko Widodo (Jokowi), joined by running mate Jusuf Kalla, and Prabowo Subianto, who is joined by running mate Hatta Rajasa.

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After having seen his lead over rival Prabowo Subianto narrow considerably in recent months, the latest survey released by the Indonesia Survey Circle (LSI) today (07/07) indicates that presidential candidate Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo’s popularity has rebounded, although the race remains tight. According to the survey, Jokowi and running mate Jusuf Kalla secured 47.8 percent of respondents’ votes, slightly higher than their rivals Prabowo Subianto and running mate Hatta Rajasa at 44.2 percent.

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More and more concerns have arisen recently regarding the democratic future of Indonesia. In fact, some media have reported that an impeachment of president-elect Joko Widodo, who will assume office on 20 October 2014, could become a reality as opposition in parliament - led by controversial and vindictive former army general Prabowo Subianto - is large. The Merah-Putih coalition, referring to the coalition of political parties that supported Subianto in the presidential election (which he narrowly lost to Widodo) will control 353 of the 560 seats in parliament.

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Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR) approved the 2015 State Budget on Monday (29/09) that was proposed by the outgoing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono administration. The budget deficit is now set at IDR 245.9 trillion (USD $20.5 billion), equivalent to 2.21 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), and lower than the 2.32 percent of GDP proposed by the government in both the Financial Memorandum and the Revised 2015 State Budget. However, the accepted budget deficit is still high compared to previous years.

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US Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen reminded global investors to prepare for a sooner-than-expected US interest rate hike (Fed Funds Rate, FFR) provided that the economy of the USA - the world’s largest economy - continues its improving trend. In fact, speculation has emerged that the FFR will be raised before the end of 2014 although Yellen stated more than once that the ‘close-to-zero’ interest rate environment would be maintained for a considerable period after the US bond-buying program (quantitative easing) has ended.

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According to data from ANZ-Roy Morgan, Indonesian consumer confidence increased 3.7 points to hit a record high at 161.4 points in August. Compared to the same month last year, Indonesian consumer confidence has grown by 11.9 points. Improved confidence in August is primarily due to increased confidence in personal finances and consumers’ expectation to buy household appliances. Indonesians are also more optimistic about the condition of the domestic economy in the five years ahead due to the arrival of president-elect Joko Widodo.

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Indonesia’s fuel subsidy policy is estimated to have a large influence on investors’ confidence in the financial or fiscal fundamentals of Southeast Asia’s largest economy and thus on the performance of the local stock index and currency. New president elect Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) is expected to raise prices of subsidized fuels after taking office in late October 2014 in an attempt to combat the country’s wide current account deficit (mainly caused by expensive oil imports to meet domestic fuel demand).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects that the country’s current account deficit will only ease slightly in 2014. Last year, the deficit reached 3.3 percent of Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP), a level which is generally considered unsustainable and leads to reduced investor confidence. Countries that have to cope with a wide current account deficit, such as Indonesia and India, are highly vulnerable in times of global shocks as investors will quickly withdraw their investments from assets in these countries.

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The government of Indonesia agreed with the House Budget Committee to adjust the economic growth target of Southeast Asia’s largest economy in 2015 to 5.8 percent, 0.2 percentage point up from the initial growth target proposed by the government in the Financial Memorandum as well as the 2015 State Budget Draft (APBN). Still, the 5.8 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth target constitutes the lowest growth target set in Indonesia’s state budget (excluding revised state budgets) since the year 2010.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) ended at a record high on Wednesday (03/09) as market sentiments were positive after the Indonesian government raised USD $1.5 billion from 10-year dollar-denominated Islamic bonds (known as sukuk) on Tuesday (02/09). Foreign investors submitted USD $10 billion worth of bids, six times the amount offered, showing that they are confident about the country’s current and future economic prospects.

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Speculation has emerged that Indonesian President-elect Joko Widodo (Jokowi) plans to raise prices of subsidized fuels immediately after taking office in late October 2014. On Tuesday (02 /09), Jokowi said that he sees no other option than to raise these prices in an effort to relieve the budget deficit, curb the wide current account deficit and make more funds available for long-term productive public investments (such as on infrastructure, healthcare and education). The government has set aside IDR 291.1 trillion (USD $25 billion) for fuel subsidies in 2015.

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Property stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have outperformed all other stocks between the first trading day of 2014 up to 29 August 2014. The IDX’ property sector category rose 37.6 percent in the indicated period, whereas the benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) - which involves all stocks traded on the IDX - climbed 18.7 percent over the same period. On the IDX, stocks are placed in ten sectoral categories. The second-best performing sectoral index was finance (+24.5 percent).

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