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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) raised its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75 percent at the two-day policy meeting that was concluded on Thursday (26-27 September 2018). Also the deposit facility and lending facility rates were raised by 25 bps to 5.00 percent and 6.50 percent, respectively.
In line with expectations, the US Federal Reserve decided to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the range of 2.00 - 2.25 percent at the September policy meeting that was concluded on Wednesday 26 September 2018. It is the Fed's eight rate hike since 2015 and the third one so far in 2018.
Those who invest in Indonesian assets (or actually in any assets across the globe) will need to carefully monitor two matters this week. First, the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting (scheduled for 25-26 September 2018) that will most likely result in another interest rate hike. And secondly, the latest developments in USA-China (trade) relations.
The Indonesian rupiah rate depreciated beyond the IDR 14,700 per US dollar level on Friday (31/08). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index the rupiah had weakened 0.20 percent to IDR 14,710 per US dollar by 11:00 am local Jakarta time. Indonesia's currency is now gradually approaching a two-decade low. The weakening rupiah also caused the country's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index to fall 1.19 percent on Friday's first trading session.
The Indonesian rupiah is under pressure again on Thursday (23/08) in line with the overall trend of emerging market currencies. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.38 percent to IDR 14,630 per US dollar by 11:00 am local Jakarta time on Thursday.
In line with expectations, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves continued to decline for the sixth consecutive month. Per late-July 2018 the country's foreign exchange reserves amounted to USD $118.3 billion, down from the level of USD $119.8 billion one month earlier.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) hiked its benchmark interest rate three times over the past six weeks - by a total of 1.00 percent to take the benchmark to the level of 5.25 percent - in order to defend the rupiah. Last Friday (27/06) Bank Indonesia surprised part of the market by implementing a 0.50 percent rate hike. As a result, the rupiah strengthened markedly. However, its impact on the rupiah performance seems very temporary. This week the rupiah is again depreciating, hovering around the IDR 14,400 per US dollar level.
While Asian markets are mixed on Wednesday morning (20/06), Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index plunged 2 percent (to a four-week low) in the first five minutes after trading resumed after the long Eid al-Fitr holiday. Indeed a lot happened on the global stage since Indonesian markets closed on Friday 8 June 2018 that has not been absorbed by Indonesian assets. Therefore, today it is catch-up day for investors.
In the World Bank's latest Indonesia Economic Quarterly (June 2018 edition) there are plenty of positive words about the Indonesian economy, such as robust economic growth, low inflation, rising investment, growing government spending, and prudent monetary policy. However, the World Bank also detects some "substantial and mostly external" risks that lurk about. Below is the summary of the World Bank's latest Indonesia Economic Quarterly, entitled "Learning More, Growing Faster".
In line with expectations the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) raised its benchmark interest rate - the BI seven-day reverse repo rate - by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent in an unscheduled meeting on Wednesday (30/05). In combination with the scheduled monthly policy meeting on 16-17 May 2018, Bank Indonesia raised the benchmark interest rate by a total of 0.50 percent this month.
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Total foreign outstanding debt of Indonesia continues to grow at a robust pace. Based on data from the country’s central bank, total external debt rose 11.2 percent year-on-year to USD $292 billion at the end of September 2014 as private Indonesian companies have been eager to seek lower interest rates abroad. Privately-held foreign debt was up 14 percent y/y to USD $159.3 billion at end-September. Central Bank official Tirta Segara said that private sector debt is concentrated in the financial, manufacturing and mining sectors.
Although we initially expected that the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) would be supported by the various macroeconomic data (inflation, trade balance, and manufacturing activity) that were released by Statistics Indonesia today, the opposite is what happened. The index went into red territory amid profit taking, although the bond market in fact strengthened and foreign investors recorded net buying at IDR 224 billion (USD $18.7 million).
The market showed today (27/10) that the composition of Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s cabinet did not live up to expectations. On Sunday afternoon, Widodo had announced the names of the ministers inside his Working Cabinet (Kabinet Kerja) after having delayed the announcement for almost a week as several of his ministerial candidates needed to be replaced having been red flagged by the country’s Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK). This then heightened expectations that Widodo’s cabinet would constitute a ‘dream team’.
It was a good start of the week for the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG). Various factors, both internal and external, managed to push the index higher on Monday (20/10). Externally, the IHSG was supported by positive Asian indices which responded to last week’s good US economic data (building permits, housing starts, and consumer sentiment). Moreover, the sharply appreciating Indonesian rupiah exchange rate made Indonesian assets more attractive.
Today (20/10), Central Jakarta seems to have changed into one big party as Joko Widodo was inaugurated as Indonesia’s seventh president earlier this morning. For the remainder of the day celebrations will be held at Monas (National Monument) and surrounding areas. However, it is of vital importance that Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) will start to focus on this presidential duties tomorrow as the country is facing a number of economic challenges. What are these challenges?
Indonesian stocks tumbled at the first trading day of the week as investors are still concerned about the condition of the global economy. Declining stock indices on Wall Street at the end of last week had a negative impact on Asian stock indices, including Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index, or abbreviated IHSG). The IHSG fell 1.01 percent to 4,913.05, its lowest level since 4 July 2014, on Monday (13/10). Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 595 billion (USD $49.6 million).
In line with the volatile performance of global stocks, led by indices on Wall Street, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or abbreviated IHSG) showed a volatile performance over the past week. US stocks mostly declined - except for the sharp rebound on Wednesday after Federal Reserve minutes signalled no higher US interest rates anytime soon - on concerns about the global economy (particularly the Eurozone), looming higher US interest rates, and the appreciating US dollar (hurting US exports).
It was a relief for investors to learn that the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) rebounded on Thursday (09/10) after having experienced a sharp decline on the previous day. The IHSG was supported by rising Asian stocks after indices on Wall Street had surged on Wednesday (08/10). Wall Street was up as minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting signalled that US interest rates will remain low 'for a while'. Another positive factor was that today’s appreciation of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly cut its outlook for global economic expansion for both 2014 and 2015. The institution decided to lower its forecast due to weaker growth in Japan, Latin America and Europe. According the IMF’s latest estimate, the global economy will grow 3.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2014, down from its previous estimate of 3.4 percent y/y, and 3.8 percent y/y in 2015 (down from 4.0 percent y/y in its July estimate). This is the third time this year that the IMF has had to cut its global economic growth forecast.
Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that although the recent weakening trend of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is in line with the performance of other Asian currencies, the central bank is prepared to intervene in the market in an effort to support the currency and keep it in a comfortable range. On Monday (06/10), Bank Indonesia Executive Director Tirta Segara already stated that foreign exchange intervention was conducted in September 2014 in order to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate.
