Most Asian stock markets were stronger on Wednesday, led by Japan's Nikkei 225 Index which rose 2.70 percent on expectation of further government stimulus measures. Meanwhile, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 1.09 percent to 4,223.91 points supported by the region's rising stock indices as well as on the back of the second installment of Indonesia's economic policy package. Meanwhile, the rupiah appreciated 0.26 percent to IDR 14,653 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Indonesian stocks experienced a remarkable roller coaster ride on Tuesday (29/09). After opening the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell more than two percent to a near three-year low. However, the index managed to finish the trading day at 4,178.41 points, a 1.41 percent rise. Meanwhile, Indonesia's rupiah managed to curb losses. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah passed beyond the IDR 14,800 per US dollar level several times but at the end of the day it had only weakened 0.11 percent to IDR 14,691 per US dollar.

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In an effort to support the ailing Indonesian rupiah, state-owned energy company Pertamina will cut its foreign exchange purchases on the spot market by around 50 percent. Pertamina together with state utility firm Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) account for about half of Indonesia's daily foreign exchange (forex) transactions as these companies require US dollars for fuel purchases and overseas debt settlements.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) was down over 2 percent, touching a three-year low, while the rupiah weakened beyond the IDR 14,800 per US dollar level (Bloomberg Dollar Index) around 09:00 am local Jakarta time on Tuesday (29/09) as the global selloff persists. Investors are concerned about the economic conditions of China and the world, low commodity prices, while anticipating a Fed Fund Rate hike.

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Stock indices in Asia were mixed on the first trading day of the week. Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index plunged 2.11 percent to 4,120.50 points (a two-year low), while the rupiah (remarkably) appreciated 0.13 percent to IDR 14,674 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Meanwhile, European markets were down after opening on Monday (28/09). What influenced these markets today?

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Indonesia plans to cut taxes for local exporters in a bid to boost the country’s foreign exchange reserves, while supporting the rupiah, as part of its second policy package. Indonesia’s rupiah has depreciated 18.1 percent since the start of 2015 due to looming higher US interest rates, low commodity prices, and China’s yuan devaluation. The government now plans to cut income tax on interest that exporters earn when depositing their export proceeds in local banks. Currently, income tax on bank interest (from deposit accounts) stands at 20 percent.

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After opening on Monday (28/09) Indonesian stocks rapidly fell amid mixed Asian markets. The main factor that causes several Asian markets to fall is declining Chinese industrial profits (triggering concern about a deepening slowdown of the world’s second-largest economy). China’s industrial profits fell 8.8 percent in August, down from July’s 2.9 percent drop. By 09:50 am local Jakarta time, the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index was down 1.41 percent to 4,150.27 points.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is set to announce the second installment of a policy package that aims at raising onshore US dollar supplies (and liquidity). As the rupiah has been the second worst-performing Asian emerging market currency (after Malaysia’s ringgit), having depreciated 18.1 percent against the US dollar so far in 2015, Indonesian policymakers are anxious to prop up the ailing currency in order to safeguard the country’s financial stability. Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) stood at IDR 14,690 per US dollar on Friday (25/09), a 17-year low.

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Stock markets in Asia were mixed on Friday (25/09) after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in a speech at the University of Massachusetts that the US central bank is still on track to raise interest rates before the year-end (provided no economic shocks take place as the move is data-dependent). After this looming hike, Yellen suggests to gradually tighten US monetary policy thereafter.

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In line with other Asian emerging markets and currencies, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are weakening on Friday (25/09) after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said during her speech at the University of Massachusetts that US interest rates are likely to be raised before the year-end, provided no economic shocks occur. Yellen stated that most FOMC participants agree on a Fed Fund Rate hike later this year, followed by gradual further monetary tightening thereafter.

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Broad market trends in the Indonesian rupiah have held relatively consistent over the last year, with a modest devaluation seen against the US dollar. We did see fluctuations in these trends during the summer months but many of these moves came as a result of external influences. One of the best examples here is the media turmoil that posted during this period with respect to a slowdown in the Chinese economy, and this has left many investors wondering whether the rupiah will be able to stand on its own merits and reverse some of its earlier weakness.

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New York-based financial services firm Standard & Poor's stated that Indonesia's banking industry will feel the negative impact of Indonesia's sluggish economic growth in combination with persistently low commodity prices next year. This combination may weaken profitability of the nation's banking industry. S&P puts Indonesia's economic growth in 2016 at 5 percent (y/y), below the International Monetary Fund's and World Bank's forecast as well as the central government's target, all at 5.3 percent (y/y).

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The financial markets have had an interesting year in 2015, with several significant surprises seen in the major asset classes. On the whole, 2015 could probably be best described as a year of stabilizing with stocks and commodities holding mostly steady throughout the period. This has been largely true in the currency markets, as well. But there are some factors that are likely to influence trends for world currencies in new ways in 2016. Central banks in some regions will likely have significant influence in others, and investors will need to remain aware of the possibilities early in order to position for potential trend chances in critical areas.

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Ace Hardware Indonesia, one of Indonesia's leading retail companies that is engaged in the markets of home improvement and lifestyle products, is expected to show modest (single-digit) growth in 2016. Same store sales growth is estimated to grow in the range of 8-10 percent year-on-year (y/y). This modest performance is caused by weak purchasing power in Indonesia amid sluggish economic growth and due to the fragile rupiah (against the US dollar).

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The structure of Indonesia's automotive industry remains weak as it is too dependent on imports of raw materials, making sales prices of cars highly vulnerable to the volatile Indonesian rupiah. The automotive industry has been one of the many local industries that has been plagued by Indonesia's economic slowdown and fragile rupiah (amid looming tighter monetary policy in the USA) as people's purchasing power has weakened. In the first ten months of 2015, Indonesian car sales stood at a total of 853,008 units, down 18 percent from car sales in the same period last year.

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Indonesian assets weakened on Friday (06/11) on expectation that US non-farm payrolls and US employment data would improve, suggesting that a Fed Fund Rate hike may occur in December 2015. Such expectations were correct. After Indonesian and other Asian markets had closed on Friday, the US Labor Department announced that October payrolls rose 271,000 (the largest increase this year), while the US unemployment rate touched a seven-year low at 5 percent. Furthermore, the average hourly earnings over the past 12 months climbed by the most since 2009.

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As Indonesia's inflation rate has eased to 6.25 percent (y/y) in October 2015 from 6.83 percent (y/y) in the previous month, and given that Indonesian inflation will ease more markedly in the last two months of 2015 as the impact of the subsidized fuel price hike in November 2014 will vanish, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) seems to have more scope to cut its current relatively high benchmark interest rate, hence giving rise to accelerated economic activity.

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Today (22/10), the World Bank released the October 2015 edition of its flagship Indonesia Economic Quarterly, titled "In Times of Global Volatility". In the report the World Bank states that despite current ongoing global uncertainties (caused by looming monetary tightening in the USA and China's economic slowdown), which make macroeconomic management difficult in the year ahead, pro-active government action could offset the negative impact and may help to boost growth.

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American financial services company Standard & Poor's warns that defaults by Indonesian companies are a serious threat over the next 18 months given their eroded balance sheets amid the country's current economic slowdown. The warning came after Indonesian mobile phone retailer Trikomsel Oke announced plans to restructure about USD $155 million worth of debt as it may not be capable to meet obligations indefinitely.

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Both Morgan Stanley and Moody's Investors Service have cast some negative perceptions on the condition of the Indonesian economy. First, American multinational financial services corporation Morgan Stanley released a report in which it stated that the recent rupiah rally will not last (Morgan Stanley maintains its year-end target of IDR 14,000 per US dollar). Then, global credit ratings agency Moody's criticized Indonesia's recently unveiled third policy package in which the government lowers energy prices for local manufacturers in a bid to support the industry.

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