Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), predicts that the current economic turmoil in the Eurozone, caused by the Greek debt crisis, will impact on the stability of developing countries, including Indonesia. Although in terms of both trade and investment there should not be a real impact originating from Greek turmoil, the perception of macroeconomic stability will be somewhat hit on the back of global uncertainty. In line with most markets, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened on Monday (06/07).

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The Indonesian government revised its 2015 economic growth target. Sofyan Djalil, Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, stated on Friday (03/07) that the government’s previous target was unrealistically high at 5.8 percent (y/y) given the sluggish international and domestic economic context. The government revised down the GDP growth target of 2015 to 5.2 percent (y/y). Djalil said that the global economy is forecast to grow 2.9 percent (y/y) in 2015 from an earlier estimate of 3.5 percent (y/y).

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The latest survey of Bank Indonesia shows that consumer confidence in Indonesia has fallen in June 2015 on fears of shrinking job availability as well as declining income and business activity. Last month, the central bank’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.5 points to 111.3. This year so far, Indonesian consumer confidence only rose in May. In other months the index fell. Bank Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index is based on samples of 4,600 households in 18 major cities in Indonesia (100 separates optimism from pessimism).

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On 1 July 2015, Bank Indonesia’s BI Regulation No. 17/3/PBI/2015 regarding the Mandatory Use of the Rupiah in Indonesia came into effect. This BI Regulation, signed on 31 March 2015, restricts the use of foreign currencies in transactions conducted in Indonesia with the aim to deepen the domestic rupiah market, stabilize the rupiah (which has been depreciating against the US dollar), and foster economic expansion. A previous law (Law No. 7/2011) allowed for involved contract parties to agree using another currency (than the rupiah) for payments.

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Eric Sugandi, Chief Economist at the Standard Chartered Bank, expects Indonesia’s rupiah to have depreciated to IDR 13,900 per US dollar by the end of the year from IDR 13,339 currently (29/06) due to the impact of the bullish US dollar ahead of monetary tightening in the USA and the looming Greek exit from the Eurozone. Actually, this is a conservative prognosis. In case Indonesia’s central bank does not raise its benchmark interest rate (BI rate), currently at 7.50 percent, pressures on the rupiah may increase in fact increase further.

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Although Indonesia is considered as one of the Asian economies that is particularly vulnerable to a Greek exit from the euro (‘Grexit’), Indonesian stocks and the rupiah did not decline as heavily as other emerging market assets on Monday’s trading day (29/06), the first trading day after the collapse of talks between debt-ridden Greece and its international creditors. Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.82 percent to 4,882.59 points while the rupiah depreciated 0.24 percent to IDR 13,339 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Indonesian stocks are expected to feel heavy downward pressure on Monday (29/06) due to stalled talks between debt-ridden Greece and its international creditors. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) still needs to open but other Asian markets immediately plunged after opening. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 2.28 percent as the yen appreciates (investors are chasing safe haven assets), while South Korea’s KOSPI fell 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, the euro is depreciating heavily in Asian trading.

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Most stock indices across the world continued to fall on Friday (26/06) on heightened concern that debt-ridden Greece will fail to reach an agreement with its international creditors. The deal is necessary for Greece to obtain bailout funds in order to avoid a default on its debt to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due on 30 June 2015. A default could mean a Greek exit (Grexit) from the Eurozone and jeopardizes stability of the whole financial system of the region. Talks between both sides will continue into the weekend.

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As Greece and its international creditors have failed to reach an agreement (yet) regarding the disbursement of crucial bailout funds for the debt payment of debt-ridden Greece to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) later this month, most Asian stocks fell on Thursday (25/06) in cautious trading. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) fell 0.68 percent to 4,920.04 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.20 percent to IDR 13,328 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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On Tuesday (23/06) Asian stock indices extended gains on optimism that debt-ridden Greece will not default and stays within the Eurozone. Although Eurozone leaders reminded that there is still work to be done before an agreement can be reached between Greece and its creditors, markets are confident that the deal is only a matter of time. However, similar to yesterday, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index did not follow this global positivity and instead declined 0.44 percent to 4,937.65 points.

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To assess Indonesia's purchasing power and consumer confidence it is always useful to take a look at car and motorcycle sales because when people are confident about their financial situation and have enough money to spend then they tend to buy cars and motorcycles (motorcycles are particularly popular among Indonesia's huge middle to lower-middle class segment). Meanwhile, cement sales inform about property and infrastructure development. Property development is also closely related to purchasing power and consumer confidence because property development grows when people's demand for property rises.

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Some concern has been raised about the inflow of foreign 'hot money' into Indonesia amid accomodative monetary policies conducted by central banks of the Eurozone and Japan (the latter implemented negative interest rates in late-January). The world's carry traders are now seeking cheap funds in advanced economies and invest these funds in assets that have attractive returns such as Indonesian bonds and stocks. Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) is still relatively high at 7.0 percent after a 25 basis points cut at Bank Indonesia's February 2016 policy meeting.

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Tomorrow (05/02), Statistics Indonesia is scheduled to release Indonesia's official full-year 2015 economic growth figure. Nearly all analysts expect to see a figure that reflects the continuation of slowing economic growth. Southeast Asia's largest economy expanded 5.0 percent in 2014 and this is expected to have eased further to 4.7 percent or 4.8 percent in 2015 on the back of (interrelated) sluggish global growth, low commodity prices, and weak export performance. Domestically, Indonesia has or had to cope with high interest rates and inflation (hence curtailing people's purchasing power and consumption as well as business expansion).

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Whereas the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), expects Indonesia's car sales to rise five percent (y/y) in 2016 on the back of improving economic conditions, US-based consulting firm Frost & Sullivan expects to see a 4.3 percent decline in the country's car sales this year as continued rupiah depreciation and persistently low commodity prices undermine Indonesians' purchasing power.

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Broad market trends in the Indonesian rupiah have held relatively consistent over the last year, with a modest devaluation seen against the US dollar. We did see fluctuations in these trends during the summer months but many of these moves came as a result of external influences. One of the best examples here is the media turmoil that posted during this period with respect to a slowdown in the Chinese economy, and this has left many investors wondering whether the rupiah will be able to stand on its own merits and reverse some of its earlier weakness.

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New York-based financial services firm Standard & Poor's stated that Indonesia's banking industry will feel the negative impact of Indonesia's sluggish economic growth in combination with persistently low commodity prices next year. This combination may weaken profitability of the nation's banking industry. S&P puts Indonesia's economic growth in 2016 at 5 percent (y/y), below the International Monetary Fund's and World Bank's forecast as well as the central government's target, all at 5.3 percent (y/y).

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The financial markets have had an interesting year in 2015, with several significant surprises seen in the major asset classes. On the whole, 2015 could probably be best described as a year of stabilizing with stocks and commodities holding mostly steady throughout the period. This has been largely true in the currency markets, as well. But there are some factors that are likely to influence trends for world currencies in new ways in 2016. Central banks in some regions will likely have significant influence in others, and investors will need to remain aware of the possibilities early in order to position for potential trend chances in critical areas.

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Ace Hardware Indonesia, one of Indonesia's leading retail companies that is engaged in the markets of home improvement and lifestyle products, is expected to show modest (single-digit) growth in 2016. Same store sales growth is estimated to grow in the range of 8-10 percent year-on-year (y/y). This modest performance is caused by weak purchasing power in Indonesia amid sluggish economic growth and due to the fragile rupiah (against the US dollar).

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The structure of Indonesia's automotive industry remains weak as it is too dependent on imports of raw materials, making sales prices of cars highly vulnerable to the volatile Indonesian rupiah. The automotive industry has been one of the many local industries that has been plagued by Indonesia's economic slowdown and fragile rupiah (amid looming tighter monetary policy in the USA) as people's purchasing power has weakened. In the first ten months of 2015, Indonesian car sales stood at a total of 853,008 units, down 18 percent from car sales in the same period last year.

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Indonesian assets weakened on Friday (06/11) on expectation that US non-farm payrolls and US employment data would improve, suggesting that a Fed Fund Rate hike may occur in December 2015. Such expectations were correct. After Indonesian and other Asian markets had closed on Friday, the US Labor Department announced that October payrolls rose 271,000 (the largest increase this year), while the US unemployment rate touched a seven-year low at 5 percent. Furthermore, the average hourly earnings over the past 12 months climbed by the most since 2009.

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