With Donald Trump in office there exists huge volatility in terms of politics, foreign diplomatic relations, and trade-related policies. One day the US is on the brink of a "fire and fury" war with North Korea, then the next day Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un agree to meet for talks. One day the US shocks the world by announcing steep steel and aluminum import tariffs, the next day trading partners are invited to negotiate lower tariffs. One day Rex Tillerson is US Secretary of State, the next he is fired by Trump through Twitter.

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Rapidly rising US stock futures and a sell-off in the bond market. These are the results of an impressive US jobs report, released by the US Labor Department on Friday morning (American time) or evening (Indonesian time). The US economy added 313,000 jobs in February 2018, the highest increase since October 2015. A huge rise in construction jobs was one of the key supporting factors. Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate stayed at 4.1 percent for a 5th straight month.

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Wilbur Ross, US Secretary of Commerce, stated that the US Department of Commerce issued an affirmative final anti-dumping duty on biodiesel shipments that originate from Indonesia. The statement was released overnight (21/02). The decision was made to improve the situation of local US biodiesel producers as their business was undermined by cheap biodiesel imports from Indonesia (and Argentina).

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Indonesian biodiesel producers are in search of new export markets after the USA announced to introduce heavy anti-dumping duties and anti-subsidy rates on palm oil-based biodiesel imports from Indonesia. The Trade Ministry said Indonesia exported USD $255.6 million worth of biodiesel to the USA in 2016. This constitutes 89.2 percent of Indonesia's total biodiesel shipments.

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In a final ruling, released overnight (09/11), the US Commerce Department set anti-subsidy rates in the range of 34.45 - 64.73 percent for palm oil-based biodiesel imports that originate from Indonesia. This final ruling was slightly lighter than the preliminary 41.06 - 68.28 percent range that was set in August 2017.

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On Monday (23/10) the US Commerce Department issued a preliminary ruling and decided to set anti-dumping duties of 50.71 percent on biodiesel imports from Indonesia. Meanwhile, the USA also set anti-dumping duties, ranging between 54.36 to 70.05 percent, on soy-based biodiesel imports from Argentina.

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Stakeholders in Indonesia's biodiesel industry are waiting for the final ruling of the US Commerce Department regarding the dumping of biodiesel products on the American market. The USA accuses Indonesia and Argentina of subsidizing biodiesel exports, hence leading to uncompetitive US vegetable oils (particularly soybean oil).

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The US government plans to impose 40 percent import duties on biodiesel products that are shipped from Indonesia as the USA accuses the world's largest palm oil producer and exporter of dumping biodiesel products on the American market. As a result US vegetable oils (particularly soybean oil) lack competitiveness.

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Early this morning (Tuesday 29 August) North Korea fired another ballistic missile test. This time, however, the missile went over the northern part of Japan, an apparent attempt to provoke those who oppose North Korea's test program. The test did not lead to damage or injuries and broke into three pieces before plunging in the Pacific Ocean. While the world is now particularly waiting for a response from the USA, markets have already responded.

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The latest Federal Reserve minutes, released on Wednesday (05/07), injected a degree of uncertainty into markets. The minutes, covering the Federal Open Market Committee's June meeting, show a fragmented Fed that is split on when to start shrinking the Fed's massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet as well as on the inflation slowdown.

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The latest World Bank report of East Asia and the Pacific states that "driven by strong domestic demand, economies of developing East Asia and Pacific continue to be an engine of global growth, growing at 7.5 percent in 2012 - higher than any other region in the world." Amid a recovering global economy the report projects that regional growth will rise to 7.8 percent in 2013 and ease to 7.6 percent in 2014.

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Last week, I discussed the composition of the ten largest Indonesian companies by market capitalization. For this week's column I have decided to zoom in on the performance of Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG), which has been highly volatile in the last week. It seems like its trend for the upcoming short-term has changed from an upward into a sideward trend. While the Dow Jones Index has been setting new records, the IHSG is showing some signs of fatigue.

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Last week Friday, American stock markets were not able to maintain a positive trend due to Nonfarm Payrolls that increased below expectation. Moreover, concerns about a spreading bird flu epidemic in China in combination with increased political tensions in Korea impacted on Monday's trading day (8 April 2013) of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG). The index had to absorb a sell-off, thus closing lower to 4,897.52, an 0.58 percent decline.

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On Thursday 4 April 2013, market players were hoping that the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) would climb beyond the psychological level of 5,000. However, the presence of negative market sentiments - and the overbought condition of the IHSG - were used as reasons to engage in profit taking. It consequently pushed down Indonesia's main financial market indicator to the level of 4,922.61, an 1.18 percent fall compared to Wednesday's trading day.

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Despite positive results of monthly US Factory Orders and Economic Optimism, it did not support Asian stock markets up to the end of Wednesday's trading day. The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG), on the other hand, maintained its upward movement to reach 4,981.47, a 0.49 percent gain. Matters that supported the IHSG's performance to yet another new record high level, were well-received 2012 company reports as well as expected dividend payouts.

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This week, the World Bank published its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ, edition March 2013) titled 'Pressures Mounting'. It reports on key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these in a longer-term and global context. To read the whole report, please visit the World Bank's website at www.worldbank.org or download this edition directly through this link. Below we present the executive summary.

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A surge in plantation, consumer, infrastructure and financial stocks has pushed the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) higher up the path of record-breaking highs on Friday, despite mixed Asian stock markets and a weak opening of European stock indices. Moreover, continued reports about good corporate results of listed companies convinced market participants to engage in trading, despite an already overbought market.

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After three days of trying to reach a new resistance level, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) finally ended above the level of 4500. Actually, it does not mark a new phenomenon as the IHSG had reached 4518.95 at the start of the week. However, back then it could not hold that level for long due to selling pressures. Despite mostly negative Asian stock indices, the IHSG managed to gain in strength as European stock markets opened positively, and due to many promising results of Indonesian companies.

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