Today (02/03), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesia’s annual inflation eased further in February. Last month, inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy cooled to 6.29 percent year-on-year (y/y) - from 6.96 percent (y/y) in the preceding month - amid falling fuel prices as well as falling food prices (particularly chili) despite inflationary pressures triggered by higher rice prices. On a month-to-month (m/m) basis, Indonesia recorded 0.36 percent of deflation in February, the second straight month of deflation.

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On 1 March 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as a forecast for February inflation, an analysis of the rupiah exchange rate, news from the coal mining and palm oil sectors, Islamic finance, the IPO of Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat, and more.

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Indonesian inflation is expected to have eased further in February 2015 on lower food prices. One notable exception, however, is rice. Rice prices have soared approximately 30 percent year-on-year (y/y) up to IDR 12,000 per kilogram in February. Higher rice prices have been caused by distribution obstacles for Raskin (‘rice for the poor’) operations in combination with this year’s late harvest season (between March and June). Fluctuation in prices of rice, the staple food of 250 million Indonesians, has a significant impact on inflation in Indonesia.

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After Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen indicated that the US central bank will be patient in raising the interest rate environment in the world’s largest economy, Indonesian assets gained on Wednesday (25/02). Both the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index and rupiah exchange rate strengthened 0.51 percent yesterday. Apart from increased speculation that the Fed will not raise interest rates before summer, expectation that Greece will avoid a disastrous default brought more positive market sentiments.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated JCI or IHSG) posted a series of consecutive record high closes during the past week, primarily on the central bank’s (Bank Indonesia) decision to cut its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent, investors’ positive outlook on Indonesian companies’ corporate earnings in 2015 and expectation that the Eurozone’s quantitative easing program will offset the negative impact of monetary tightening in the USA.

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One day after the surprise interest rate cut by Indonesia’s central bank, Indonesian stocks surge to a new record level led by interest rate sensitive stocks (such as financial institutions, construction firms and property firms) while the rupiah and government bonds are weakening. Yesterday (17/02), Bank Indonesia shocked markets by lowering its key interest rate (BI rate) and deposit facility rate (Fasbi) by 25 basis points, each, to 7.50 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. Easing monetary policy is back in fashion among the region’s central banks.

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Benedict Bingham, Senior Resident Representative for Indonesia at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), expects that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will remain committed to the tighter monetary policy in a bid to safeguard the country’s fiscal fundamentals amid external pressures. Apart from sluggish global economic growth, the looming interest rate hike in the USA (later this year) is expected to rock Indonesia as it will trigger capital outflows from emerging markets.

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Based on preliminary data, domestic car sales in Indonesia fell 7.2 percent (y/y) to 96,149 vehicles in January 2015 from the same month in 2014. It is believed that the recent (subsidized) fuel price reforms, implemented by the Joko Widodo administration in November and January (which led to accelerated inflation), have made consumers hesitant to buy a car. Car sales are an important indicator to measure consumer confidence and the general state of the economy. In general, when car sales rise the economy is growing.

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The latest Consumer Confidence Survey released by Indonesia’s central bank indicated that Indonesian consumers were more optimistic in January 2015 (compared to the previous month) on the back of recent fuel price cuts. The index, based on a total of 4,600 households across 18 major Indonesian cities, climbed to 120.2 points in January, up from 116.5 in the preceding month (a score above 100 signals consumer optimism). In December the index had declined due to higher administered fuel prices.

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On 2 February 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as an update on January inflation and the December 2014 trade balance, foreign direct investment, palm oil export, car sales, a land reclamation project, and more.

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The government of Indonesia agreed with the House Budget Committee to adjust the economic growth target of Southeast Asia’s largest economy in 2015 to 5.8 percent, 0.2 percentage point up from the initial growth target proposed by the government in the Financial Memorandum as well as the 2015 State Budget Draft (APBN). Still, the 5.8 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth target constitutes the lowest growth target set in Indonesia’s state budget (excluding revised state budgets) since the year 2010.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) ended at a record high on Wednesday (03/09) as market sentiments were positive after the Indonesian government raised USD $1.5 billion from 10-year dollar-denominated Islamic bonds (known as sukuk) on Tuesday (02/09). Foreign investors submitted USD $10 billion worth of bids, six times the amount offered, showing that they are confident about the country’s current and future economic prospects.

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Speculation has emerged that Indonesian President-elect Joko Widodo (Jokowi) plans to raise prices of subsidized fuels immediately after taking office in late October 2014. On Tuesday (02 /09), Jokowi said that he sees no other option than to raise these prices in an effort to relieve the budget deficit, curb the wide current account deficit and make more funds available for long-term productive public investments (such as on infrastructure, healthcare and education). The government has set aside IDR 291.1 trillion (USD $25 billion) for fuel subsidies in 2015.

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Contrary to the positive performance of the benchmark stock index of Indonesia on Monday’s trading day (01/09) and despite positive domestic economic data released by Statistics Indonesia, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 11,716 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (01/09). The main reason for the currency’s depreciation is the strengthening US dollar as US economic data are improving and inflation is slowing in the Eurozone.

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In the past days, Indonesia’s fuel subsidy policy has been in the spotlight of Indonesian media continuously. When it was reported that incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and newly elected president Joko Widodo would meet on the island of Bali this week to discuss various transitional matters, speculation emerged that the country’s generous fuel subsidies, which seriously burden the government’s budget as well as current account, might be wound down before the new government is inaugurated in October 2014.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced two important matters on Thursday (14/08). Firstly, the institution decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the overnight deposit facility rate (Fasbi) at 5.75 percent, and the lending facility rate at 7.50 percent. Secondly, it announced that Indonesia’s current account deficit widened to USD $9.1 billion, or, 4.27 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2014, a widening that is larger than initially forecast.

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Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first half of 2014 reached 5.17 percent (year-on-year), thus continuing the slowing growth trend that has been recorded by the country since 2011. Forecasts for GDP growth in the second half of 2014 indicate a slight improvement (to the range of 5.2 to 5.3 percent year-on-year) supported by strong household consumption, increased government spending and further growth of the trade and services sector. However, in recent quarters the official GDP figure has been lower than most forecasts.

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According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country’s trade balance in June 2014 recorded a deficit of USD $0.30 billion after the USD $0.05 billion surplus in the previous month. The performance of Indonesia’s trade balance was influenced by shrinkage of the country’s non-oil & gas surplus amid a lower oil & gas deficit compared to May 2014. Meanwhile, inflation was up 0.93 percent (month-to-month) in July 2014; a good performance amid the Ramadan and Idul Fitri festivities. Annual inflation eased to 4.53 percent (year-on-year).

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One day ahead of the official result of the Indonesian presidential election, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) showed a good performance as market participants seem to speculate not only on a Joko Widodo win, but also on a peaceful and orderly course of events (no large scale demonstrations or riots). On Sunday, president Yudhoyono received both presidential candidates at the State Palace for dinner. This may have helped to cool some of the tension between supporters of both sides.

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Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo expects the country’s July 2014 inflation pace to come in the range of 0.80 to 1.20 percent (month-to-month). This relatively high inflation figure is caused by seasonal factors: the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. Ahead and during these festivities, consumers tend to spend more, thus resulting in higher prices in the context of these Islamic celebrations. A recent Bank Indonesia survey showed that inflation already reached 0.80 percent in the first week of July.

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