A senior official at Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) stated that the country's current account deficit is expected to ease to 2.5 - 2.7 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) by 2014. In the second quarter of 2013, the account deficit reached USD $9.8 billion or 4.4 percent of GDP in Q2-2013, an alarmingly high figure that has caused much concern among the investor community. This deficit is particularly brought on by a large deficit in the country's oil & gas sector in combination with strong domestic demand for imports.

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Indonesia’s economy continues to adjust, as weaker commodity prices, tighter international financing, and slowing domestic demand moderate the growth rate to 5.6 percent for 2013. This downward revision is discussed in the latest edition of the World Bank’s Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ). Further moderation of growth (at 5.3 percent) may be expected in 2014, with growth in high income economies firming but international market conditions likely remaining volatile.

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Today, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released Indonesia's export and import figures for the month August 2013. Exports in August amounted to USD $13.16 billion, implying a 12.77 percent decline compared to exports in July 2013, or a 6.31 decline year-on-year. Imports in August 2013 amounted to USD $13.03 billion, a 25.20 percent fall compared to the previous month, or a 5.69 percent fall year-on-year. As such, Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of USD $130 million in August.

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Indonesia's construction industry, which accounts for about ten percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), is experiencing turbulent times as the sector is impacted upon by three issues, namely higher minimum wages, higher subsidized fuel prices as well as the depreciating rupiah (against the US dollar). Concerns have arisen that a number of projects cannot be finished due to these issues. Moreover, companies may feel forced to dimiss workers in order to keep a healthy financial balance sheet.

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Growth of Indonesia's foreign debt has slowed down in July 2013 according to data from Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia). Total foreign debt in July 2013 stood at USD $259.54 billion, a 7.3 percent increase compared to the same month in 2012. In June 2013, the year on year growth had been 8 percent. Bank Indonesia stated that it considers Indonesia's current foreign debt situation - both in the private and public sector - as healthy. Growth has slowed down as a consequence of the slowing national economy.

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The outcome of Indonesia's 2014 budget deficit is expected to be higher than initially planned in the 2014 State Budget Draft (RAPBN 2014). In the 2014 draft, the deficit is proposed to amount to IDR 154.2 trillion (USD $13.6 billion), or 1.49 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). However, the government's latest estimate indicates a widening of the deficit to IDR 209.5 trillion (USD $18.5 billion), equivalent to 2.02 percent of GDP. The wider deficit is mainly caused by Indonesia's depreciating rupiah as well as the weak global economy.

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Singapore-based DBS Group, a leading financial services group in Asia, expects Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to reach 5.8 percent in 2013, while it forecasts growth of 6.0 percent in 2014. This year, Indonesia has to cope with ups and downs due to several domestic and foreign factors. According to the institution, two issues stand out as being significantly influential this year. These are the government's decision to increase prices of subsidized fuels in late June and the country's sharply depreciating rupiah.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) and deposit facility rate (Fasbi) by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent and 5.50 percent respectively on Thursday (12/09). It is the fourth time since June that Bank Indonesia raised the interest rate. Previously, it maintained a historic low BI rate of 5.75 percent for 16 months. The increase is one of the measures taken to control inflation, stabilize the rupiah exchange rate and to ensure that the current account deficit is managed to a sustainable level.

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The total value of investments in the Masterplan for Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia's Economic Development (MP3EI) between 2011 - when the Masterplan was first introduced - and July 2013 amounted to IDR 647.46 trillion (USD $58.86 billion). Coordinating Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa said this to state-owned news agency Antara. State-owned enterprises invested a total of IDR 173.63 trillion, followed by the private sector with IDR 231.88 trillion, the government with IDR 99 trillion and public-private partnerships with IDR 143.12 trillion.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the economy of Indonesia to expand by 5.25 percent in 2013, which is considerably lower than the IMF's earlier forecast. In its World Economic Outlook, released in April 2013, the institution set economic growth of Indonesia at 6.3 percent. However, after emerging markets were hit by large capital outflows when the Federal Reserve began to speculate about an end to its quantitative easing program (QE3), Indonesia's GDP growth assumptions were quickly revised downwards.

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The central bank of Indonesia kept the BI seven-day reverse repo rate (7-day RR Rate) at 5.25 percent after its two-day August policy meeting (18-19 august 2016). At this policy meeting Bank Indonesia adopted the 7-day RR Rate as the nation's new benchmark monetary tool, replacing the BI rate that failed to influence markets significantly: despite the BI Rate having been cut from 7.50 percent to 6.50 percent so far this year, Indonesia's lending rates did not drop accordingly.

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A better-than-expected GDP growth figure in the second quarter of 2016 should not be a reason for Indonesia to become complacent. On the contrary, efforts to boost economic growth need to be continued. One of the keys to unlock accelerated economic growth is to optimize spending of government funds at the regional level. Alarmingly, some IDR 214.7 trillion (approx. USD $16.5 billion) of central government funds that are allocated to regional governments in the 2016 state budget are left untouched at bank accounts.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's inflation to reach slightly below 1 percent month-to-month (m/m) in July 2016. According to central bank surveys, Indonesia's inflation accelerated in the first and second week of July by 1.18 percent (m/m) and 1.25 percent (m/m), respectively. Juda Agung, Executive Director of Bank Indonesia's Economic and Monetary Policy Department, said inflation tends to peak ahead of - and during - the Idul Fitri holiday (4-8 July) but is set to ease in the third and fourth week.

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Bank Central Asia (BCA), the largest lender by market value and assets in Indonesia, is expected to benefit from Indonesia's tax amnesty program and improving economic growth of Southeast Asia's largest economy. CIMB Securities projects a 10 percent year-on-year (y/y) increase in loan growth in full-year 2016. However, this growth projection is slightly below BCA's loan growth realization one year earlier when it reached 12 percent (y/y). This slowing growth is attributed to lower demand for working capital credit and investment credit.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Tuesday (19/07) that it cut its forecast for global economic growth in both 2016 and 2017 by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1 percent (y/y) and 3.4 percent (y/y), respectively. The downward revision is the result of a "substantial increase in economic, political, institutional uncertainty" due to the exit of Britain from the European Union (the so-called "Brexit"). In fact, if there were no Brexit, the IMF would have made an upward revision to its 2017 economic growth outlook, according to a statement made on the IMF website.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said economic growth in developing Asia is relatively untouched by the recent "Brexit" vote (Britain's decision to exit the European Union). The ADB only cut its outlook for economic growth in developing Asia by 0.1 percentage point to 5.6 percent (y/y) in 2016. Within a two-week period Asia's emerging market stocks and currencies pared the heavy losses that occurred around 23 June 2016 when - amid heightened concern about the global economy - a flight to safety emerged.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) revised down its projection for Indonesia's economic growth in 2016 to the range of 5.0 - 5.4 percent (y/y), slightly below its previous forecast in the range of 5.2 - 5.6 percent (y/y). Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said the central bank decided to trim its projection for gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year due to sluggish global economic growth, low commodity prices, and Indonesia's slightly disappointing Q1-2016 GDP growth figure at 4.92 percent (y/y).

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Although Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2016 was below analysts' estimates, most analysts agree that the nation's economic growth in the second quarter of the year could reach 5 percent (y/y), supported by domestic consumption and capital inflows. In Q1-2016 Indonesia's economic growth climbed at a pace of 4.92 percent (y/y) - accelerating from the 4.73 percent (y/y) GDP growth pace in the same quarter one year earlier - but significantly below estimates of most analysts. For example, Bank Indonesia expected GDP growth around 5.1 - 5.2 percent (y/y).

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Over the last few months, we have seen some impressive gains in the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) relative to the US dollar (USD). When we compare the performance of the IDR against the rest of the emerging market space, we can see that its gains are behind only the Brazilian real (BRL) and the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) for the period. This has prompted a wave of foreign export purchases as Indonesian consumers look to take advantage of the stronger currency.

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In 2015 Unilever Indonesia's net profit declined 1.2 percent (y/y) to IDR 5.85 trillion (approx. USD $443 million) due to weakened purchasing power of Indonesian consumers amid the economic slowdown. Last year Indonesia's GDP growth touched the six-year low of 4.79 percent (y/y). This year, however, economic growth is estimated to accelerate beyond the 5.0 percent (y/y) mark. Unilever Indonesia is a leading consumer goods producer in Indonesia that is mainly focused on home & personal care products as well as foods & refreshment products. How about its performance in 2016?

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