After a long plenary session on Monday (17/06), Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) and the government have agreed to the revised 2013 State Budget (APBN-P). The revision was needed as original macroeconomic assumptions began to fall out of tune with reality. Due to global and domestic conditions a number of assumptions needed to revised down. Most controversial decision that was taken is the increase in price of subsidized fuel by 44 percent to IDR 6,500 (USD $0.66) per liter.

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Late on Monday evening (17/06), the increase in the price of subsidized fuel, as stated in Law No. 19/2012, was approved by Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) through a voting session as political parties could not agree collectively on the price hike as well as on cash programs for the poor to mitigate effects of the higher fuel price. Demonstrations against the price hike were staged in various regions. In Medan (North Sumatra), Jambi (Central Sumatra) and Ternate (North Moluccas), it led to clashes between the police force and protestors.

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The plenary session of Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) is still ongoing as the various political parties could not agree yet on the increase in the price of subsidized fuel. Five political parties agree to the price hike, while four others have rejected it. If the political parties can not agree to the proposal, then it will be decided by individual voting starting from midnight (Indonesian time). The price hike has been long awaited as a measure to relieve pressure on Indonesia's budget deficit.

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Today (15/06), it was reported in Indonesia's media that the government will announce details regarding the new price of subsidized fuel on Monday (17/06) after a plenary session of the House of Representatives (DPR). The Union of Indonesian Workers (Konfederasi Serikat Pekerja Seluruh Indonesia) has announced that it will stage a large demonstration on 17 or 18 June at the DPR/MPR building (the seat of the government) in Indonesia's capital city as well as smaller demonstrations in various cities across the archipelago.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided today to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.0 percent. The decision was made amid concerns about the inflationary impact of a hike in subsidized fuel prices (planned this June) as well as increasing uncertainty in global financial markets as central banks' may scale back stimulus programs. The Indonesian rupiah has weakened considerably in 2013 and forms the worst performer in Asia after the Japanese yen among the 11 most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

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To ease pressures on the IDR rupiah, Indonesia's central bank has used about USD $2.0 billion of its foreign exchange reserves to support the currency as the country's continuing trade deficit as well as concerns about the possible increase in price of subsidized fuel in June has caused much uncertainty about the level of inflation in the near future and puts downward pressure on the rupiah. Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell to USD $105.2 billion in late May 2013 from USD $107.3 billion at the end of April.

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Indonesia's minister of Economy, Ir. M. Hatta Rajasa, stated that the government of Indonesia intends to realize economic growth of at least 6.2 percent in the second quarter of 2013 in order to remain on track for 6.3 percent growth for full year 2013. Although he reminded that it will take hard effort to realize this target, his message contained more optimism than Finance minister Chatib Basri's statement earlier this week who sees 6.0 percent of economic growth as the limit in Q2-2013.

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In recent months, positive fundamentals have coloured stock indices green. Despite volatility, these positive fundamentals remain today. Therefore, analysts of JP Morgan emphasize that people should not turn their backs to stock markets now. Risks are obviously always present but the analysts stress that people should not be too concerned about ongoing volatility. In fact, volatility should be used to one's advantage by purchasing when the index is low. Below are five arguments that JP Morgan mentions as reason to keep buying stocks.

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According to data released by Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, abbreviated BPS), a non-departmental government institution, Indonesia's inflation figure eased 0.03 percent (month-to-month) in May 2013. The Head of BPS, Suryamin, said that it was the first time since ten years that the country experienced deflation in the month of May. The deflation figure is particularly triggered by the government's policy to allow for more imports of certain food products (such as onions, garlic, tomatoes, and chili).

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The Indonesian government and Commission XI of the House of Representatives (DPR) agreed on several macroeconomic projections for the 2013 Revised State Budget (RAPBN-P 2013). The government requested a number of modifications to the 2013 State Budget as earlier assumptions, mentioned in the original 2013 State Budget, were not in line with the current economic conditions. Before reaching the agreement, fractions in the commission changed a number of proposed revisions of the government.

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The government of Indonesia agreed with the House Budget Committee to adjust the economic growth target of Southeast Asia’s largest economy in 2015 to 5.8 percent, 0.2 percentage point up from the initial growth target proposed by the government in the Financial Memorandum as well as the 2015 State Budget Draft (APBN). Still, the 5.8 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth target constitutes the lowest growth target set in Indonesia’s state budget (excluding revised state budgets) since the year 2010.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) ended at a record high on Wednesday (03/09) as market sentiments were positive after the Indonesian government raised USD $1.5 billion from 10-year dollar-denominated Islamic bonds (known as sukuk) on Tuesday (02/09). Foreign investors submitted USD $10 billion worth of bids, six times the amount offered, showing that they are confident about the country’s current and future economic prospects.

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Speculation has emerged that Indonesian President-elect Joko Widodo (Jokowi) plans to raise prices of subsidized fuels immediately after taking office in late October 2014. On Tuesday (02 /09), Jokowi said that he sees no other option than to raise these prices in an effort to relieve the budget deficit, curb the wide current account deficit and make more funds available for long-term productive public investments (such as on infrastructure, healthcare and education). The government has set aside IDR 291.1 trillion (USD $25 billion) for fuel subsidies in 2015.

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Contrary to the positive performance of the benchmark stock index of Indonesia on Monday’s trading day (01/09) and despite positive domestic economic data released by Statistics Indonesia, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 11,716 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (01/09). The main reason for the currency’s depreciation is the strengthening US dollar as US economic data are improving and inflation is slowing in the Eurozone.

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In the past days, Indonesia’s fuel subsidy policy has been in the spotlight of Indonesian media continuously. When it was reported that incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and newly elected president Joko Widodo would meet on the island of Bali this week to discuss various transitional matters, speculation emerged that the country’s generous fuel subsidies, which seriously burden the government’s budget as well as current account, might be wound down before the new government is inaugurated in October 2014.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced two important matters on Thursday (14/08). Firstly, the institution decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the overnight deposit facility rate (Fasbi) at 5.75 percent, and the lending facility rate at 7.50 percent. Secondly, it announced that Indonesia’s current account deficit widened to USD $9.1 billion, or, 4.27 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2014, a widening that is larger than initially forecast.

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Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first half of 2014 reached 5.17 percent (year-on-year), thus continuing the slowing growth trend that has been recorded by the country since 2011. Forecasts for GDP growth in the second half of 2014 indicate a slight improvement (to the range of 5.2 to 5.3 percent year-on-year) supported by strong household consumption, increased government spending and further growth of the trade and services sector. However, in recent quarters the official GDP figure has been lower than most forecasts.

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According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country’s trade balance in June 2014 recorded a deficit of USD $0.30 billion after the USD $0.05 billion surplus in the previous month. The performance of Indonesia’s trade balance was influenced by shrinkage of the country’s non-oil & gas surplus amid a lower oil & gas deficit compared to May 2014. Meanwhile, inflation was up 0.93 percent (month-to-month) in July 2014; a good performance amid the Ramadan and Idul Fitri festivities. Annual inflation eased to 4.53 percent (year-on-year).

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One day ahead of the official result of the Indonesian presidential election, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) showed a good performance as market participants seem to speculate not only on a Joko Widodo win, but also on a peaceful and orderly course of events (no large scale demonstrations or riots). On Sunday, president Yudhoyono received both presidential candidates at the State Palace for dinner. This may have helped to cool some of the tension between supporters of both sides.

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Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo expects the country’s July 2014 inflation pace to come in the range of 0.80 to 1.20 percent (month-to-month). This relatively high inflation figure is caused by seasonal factors: the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. Ahead and during these festivities, consumers tend to spend more, thus resulting in higher prices in the context of these Islamic celebrations. A recent Bank Indonesia survey showed that inflation already reached 0.80 percent in the first week of July.

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