On Monday (20/10), Indonesia raised IDR 21.2 trillion (about USD $1.8 billion) from the sale of rupiah-denominated retail bonds (Obligasi Negara Ritel Indonesia, abbreviated ORI). This is not only the country’s largest ORI-bond sale ever, but also the largest bond sale in 2014 so far. ORI, which is usually issued once per year, is a bond that is issued specifically to Indonesian retail investors/individuals. The ORI series ORI011 was offered in the period 1-16 October 2014 with a coupon rate of 8.5 percent and a tenor of three years.

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Indonesian stocks, bonds and the rupiah exchange rate performed well ahead of - and during - the inauguration of Joko Widodo (Jokowi) as Indonesia’s seventh President on Monday morning (20 October 2014). At 10:45 am local Jakarta time, when Jokowi was making his speech in front of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the Jakarta Composite Index had surged 1.36 percent to 5,097.25 points, while the rupiah had appreciated 0.78 percent to IDR 12,015 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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On 19 October 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such as the performance of Indonesian stocks and the rupiah, foreign direct investments, an update on the coal mining sector, tax, the cement industry, palm oil, steel industry, and more.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah exchange rate strengthened considerably on Friday (17/10) due to speculation that president-elect Joko Widodo will raise prices of subsidized fuels soon after his inauguration as Indonesia’s seventh President on Monday 20 October 2014. Furthermore, a meeting between Widodo and powerful opposition leader Prabowo Subianto on Friday morning also managed to ease concerns about political stability in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Lastly, rising indices on Wall Street added positive market sentiments.

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On 12 October 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such an outlook for GDP growth, the benchmark interest rate, the equity market, car sales, the coffee industry, the Giant Sea Wall Jakarta, and more.

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Executive director of equity research at JP Morgan Securities Indonesia Aditya Srinath painted a positive picture about the equity market in Indonesia despite the lingering risks emerging from domestic political instability and looming capital outflows due to higher US interest rates in the second quarter of 2015. Srinath stated that Indonesia’s economic resilience so far as well as falling domestic interest rates among Indonesian financial institutions are positive signs for the equity market.

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Both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and Indonesian stocks weakened sharply on Wednesday (08/10) due to internal and external factors. Externally, weakening stock indices on Wall Street on Tuesday (07/10) have a severe negative impact on the performance of Asian stocks today. Wall Street was down on the IMF’s downward revised outlook for global GDP growth in 2014 and 2015, as well as on Germany’s industrial production, which fell the most in five years in August 2014.

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Although domestic car sales in Indonesia have again exceeded the psychological level of 100,000 vehicles per month, sales have fallen 12 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 101,801 units in September 2014. In September last year, car sales were heavily supported by the newly-introduced low cost green car (LCGC). Domestic car sales constitute an important indicator to measure consumer confidence and domestic consumption. Domestic consumption accounts for 55 percent of total economic growth in Indonesia.

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On 5 October 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such September inflation, August trade balance, the IPO of Blue Bird, a rupiah and stock update, a new plantations bill, political developments, and more.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated sharply on Monday (29/09) due to the market’s reaction against parliament’s passing of a bill that ends direct elections in the regions. On Friday (26/09), parliament agreed that mayors, district heads and governors will be elected by local legislatures instead of the people. Critics say this bill is a major setback for democracy and makes the system more vulnerable to corruption. Last Friday, investors had already pulled USD $119 million from Indonesian shares.

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The government of Indonesia unveiled the last installment of a series of three stimulus packages on Wednesday (07/10). The first two installments had been unveiled last month. In general, these stimulus packages aim to boost economic growth of Indonesia (which has slowed to a six-year low) and restore investors' confidence in the Indonesian rupiah and stocks. When markets believed that the Federal Reserve would soon raise its key interest rate, Indonesia was plagued by severe capital outflows pushing the rupiah to a 17-year low.

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The government of Indonesia unveiled the second installment of its September economic policy package on Tuesday (29/09). The package is introduced in an attempt to boost economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy and defend the ailing rupiah. Indonesia’s GDP growth slowed to a six-year low of 4.67 percent (y/y) in Q2-2015, while the rupiah has depreciated to a 17-year low against the US dollar. Capital outflows from Indonesia are the result of monetary tightening in the USA, low commodity prices and sluggish global economic growth (particularly China’s hard landing).

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The central bank of Indonesia announced on Thursday (17/09) that it the country’s key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, while maintaining the deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent and the lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. According to Bank Indonesia (BI) this decision is consistent with its efforts to push inflation towards the target corridor of 4±1 percent in both 2015 and 2016. In addition, the decision is also part of Bank Indonesia’s measures to anticipate possibilities of a Fed Fund Rate (FFR) hike.

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After a real roller coaster ride, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) climbed 0.35 percent to 4,446.20 points at the end of the trading week. The majority of key stock indices across the globe tended to strengthen on Friday after a week characterized by severe volatility amid concern about the economic situation in China.

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Although Indonesian stocks managed to rebound, the rupiah continued to depreciate against the US dollar today (25/08). However, rupiah weakening was limited as Bank Indonesia was closely monitoring and intervening in markets to support the rupiah. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.03 percent to IDR 14,054 per US dollar. As significant further rupiah weakening is assumed to seriously undermine confidence in the rupiah, the central bank’s intervention efforts are well received by investors.

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During Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors it was decided on 18th August 2015 to hold the BI Rate at 7.50 percent, while maintaining the Deposit Facility rate at 5.50 percent and the Lending Facility rate at 8.00 percent. The decision is consonant with efforts to control inflation within the target corridor of 4±1 percent in 2015 and 2016. In the short term, Bank Indonesia (BI) is focused on efforts to stabilize the rupiah amid uncertainty in the global economy, by optimizing monetary operations in the rupiah and the foreign exchange market.

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For most of this year, the financial media has held a generally positive tone. There have been some exceptions in cases like the Eurozone which is still mired in a deeply divided sovereign debt crisis. But for most of the world, 2015 has been a positive period in terms of general growth in their broad trends. So it might be easy for macro investors to assume that most markets are currently establishing themselves in the bullish direction.

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The Indonesian rupiah touched a 17-year low as the currency continued to depreciate amid persistent bullish US dollar momentum. The rupiah weakened to IDR 13,539 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Friday (31/07). The US Commerce Department announced on Thursday (30/07) that US gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at 2.3 percent (year-on-year) in the second quarter of 2015, giving rise to heightened expectation that the US Federal Reserve will raise its key interest rate soon.

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Companies active in the pharmaceutical industry of Indonesia need to find strategies to overcome sharp rupiah depreciation. Indonesia’s pharmaceutical industry is still - to a large extent - dependent on the import of raw materials, hence a weakening rupiah raises the costs of imports thus eroding profit margins. Since May 2013, when the US Federal Reserve started to hint at monetary tightening, the US dollar has experienced bullish momentum. Between the May 2013 and July 2015, the rupiah depreciated around 37 percent against the US dollar.

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For most of this year, the Indonesian rupiah has met selling pressure against the US Dollar. Year-to-date price activity in the USD/IDR shows a rise from below IDR 12,250 to new highs above IDR 13,330 per US dollar. For Indonesian export companies, this is great news as it means that their products will be cheaper for foreign consumers to buy. For the domestic economy, this creates a different set of implications as it also makes it less likely that foreign investors will be looking to buy into Indonesian assets.

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