Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced yesterday evening (17/11) that prices of subsidized fuels will be raised by over 30 percent starting from midnight in an effort to reduce state expenses on non-productive matters. Low-octane gasoline (premium) will now cost IDR 8,500 (USD $0.70) per liter, while diesel now costs IDR 7,500 (USD $0.62) per liter. This sudden announcement immediately led to long queues at local gas stations as people still had three hours to enjoy cheaper fuel rates.

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Tensions within Indonesian parliament may have eased after the two opposing coalitions signed a limited power-sharing pact on Monday (17/11) after weeks of negotiations. This pact is expected to reinforce investor confidence in Indonesian politics amid improved political certainty. Previously, parliament was divided into two rival coalitions: the Awesome Indonesia Coalition (Koalisi Indonesia Hebat), which backs Indonesian President Joko Widodo, and the Red-White Coalition (Koalisi Merah-Putih), which is led by Prabowo Subianto.

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After weeks of uncertainty, Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced on Monday (17/11) that prices of subsidized fuels (gasoline and diesel) are to be raised by IDR 2,000 (USD $0.16) per liter starting from midnight. Gasoline (premium) is to be raised from IDR 6,500 to IDR 8,500 per liter, while diesel will be raised from IDR 5,500 to IDR 7,500 per liter. Earlier it was speculated that an IDR 3,000 per liter price hike would be announced. However, as global oil prices have declined sharply, this was considered an unnecessary burden for the people.

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After speculation started to rise that Indonesia would perhaps not raise prices of subsidized fuels (gasoline and diesel) in November as recent declining global oil prices have managed to somewhat relieve the government’s budget deficit, Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said over the weekend that the Indonesian government is still eager to raise these prices within a couple of weeks. However, he added that the price hike will be less than IDR 3,000 (USD $0.25) per liter.

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The ceramic industry in Indonesia is expected to grow about ten percent in 2015 amid the country’s +5 percentage point GDP growth. Economic expansion translates to increased purchasing power of Indonesian consumers and the ceramic industry is one of the industries that will benefit from this. Moreover, as Indonesian President Joko Widodo targets +7 percent GDP by the end of his term, new infrastructure and property projects are to rise as well. As such, domestic ceramic demand will increase accordingly.

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Today is Hari Pahlawan (Heroes’ Day) in Indonesia. On this day, which is always celebrated on 10 November, Indonesia commemorates those people (posthumously) that have made a significant contribution to the country. Currently, the list of Indonesian heroes numbers 163 people (only 12 of which are women), and most of whom were involved in the battle against colonialism. Each year, the Indonesian president can add names to this list. This year, Indonesian President Joko Widodo added four names.

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Statistics Indonesia announced on Wednesday (05/11) that economic growth in Indonesia reached 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2014. This result was slightly below analysts’ forecasts and implies that the slowing trend of economic expansion in Southeast Asia’s largest economy continues. Since 2011, gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been declining amid global and domestic developments. The 5.01 percentage point GDP growth in Q3-2014 was the slowest quarterly growth pace in five years.

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Jusuf Kalla, Vice President of Indonesia, confirmed that subsidized fuel prices will be raised this month. Although Kalla declined to announce the specific amount, analysts expect a sharp increase of between IDR 2,000 and 3,000 (roughly USD $0.21) per liter - a price hike of almost 50 percent - to prices of both gasoline and diesel. Currently, the price of premium gasoline is IDR 6,500 (USD $0.54) per liter and diesel IDR 5,500 (USD $0.46). Economists have long requested for higher subsidized fuel prices in Indonesia as these distort the economy.

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The administration of Indonesian President Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) will not give priority status to the Sunda Strait Bridge project. As such, the new government’s stance is in direct contrast to the previous administration’s stance toward the ambitious infrastructure project. The Sunda Strait Bridge, a planned road and railway connection between the two (westernmost) Indonesian islands of Sumatra and Java, was placed high on the agenda of the government led by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

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On 2 November 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as GDP growth in the third quarter of 2014, an October inflation update, developments in coal mining, Internet connectivity, Soechi Lines’ IPO, Joko Widodo’s new cabinet, and more.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) declined 0.92 percent to 5,136.86 points on the last trading day of the week. Seven of the ten sectorial indices fell, led by the finance sector (-1.66 percent), followed by consumer goods (-1.50 percent) and manufacturing (-1.34 percent). The main reason for this poor performance is that investors are again looking at the true fundamentals of the Indonesian economy instead of optimism about Joko Widodo becoming Indonesia’s seventh president.

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In the past days, Indonesia’s fuel subsidy policy has been in the spotlight of Indonesian media continuously. When it was reported that incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and newly elected president Joko Widodo would meet on the island of Bali this week to discuss various transitional matters, speculation emerged that the country’s generous fuel subsidies, which seriously burden the government’s budget as well as current account, might be wound down before the new government is inaugurated in October 2014.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) rose 0.37 percent to 5,184.48 on Thursday’s trading day (28/08) on increased expectation that the transition from the Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) government to the Joko “Jokowi” Widodo government will be smooth and efficient evidenced by the pair's meeting in Bali to discuss various matters regarding the transfer of power. For investors, this meeting led to increased optimism. Stocks in the property and miscellaneous sectors led the gain.

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It took almost six hours for the Constitutional Court of Indonesia (Mahkamah Konstitusi) on Thursday (21/08) to read out 300 pages of a lengthy 4,392-page verdict in the case filed by defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, who claimed that the result of Indonesia’s July 2014 presidential election was invalid due to widespread violations and fraud that allegedly occurred during the voting and counting processes. During the read out it became increasingly clear that the court would reject Subianto’s claims due to a lack of evidence.

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At 14:00 pm local Jakarta time zone, Indonesia’s Constitutional Court (Mahkamah Konstitusi) is expected to announce its decision on Prabowo Subianto’s election result challenge. The defeated presidential candidate filed a court case claiming that massive fraud and violations took place amid the voting and counting processes in the context of Indonesia’s July 2014 presidential election, won by Joko Widodo (securing 53.15 percent of the votes). Although the court’s decision is final and legally binding, Subianto not expected to surrender yet.

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Foreign ownership of plantations in Indonesia may be limited to a maximum of 30 percent if a new draft bill designed by Indonesian parliament is approved. This draft bill aims to encourage local participation within Indonesia’s plantation sector at the expense of foreign ownership. Currently, foreign ownership of plantations in Indonesia is set at a maximum of 95 percent. The draft bill also aims to simplify complex rules regarding land use, protect indigenous people, and will make it easier to prosecute companies responsible for forest fires.  

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When campaigning, presidential candidates will always promise a bright future in order to gain votes. It is particularly easy for a new presidential candidate to promise golden mountains as opposed to the incumbent president who needs to be more cautious making promises as people can point to the (failed) results of his promises during the presidential term. The 2014 Indonesian presidential election was particularly interesting as we saw two new presidential candidates and, thus, the ‘inflation of promises’.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah exchange rate showed great volatility on Tuesday’s trading day (22/07). In the first part of the day the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite Index of IHSG) and rupiah strengthened on speculation that market favourite Joko “Jokowi” Widodo would win the presidential election without riots or other incidents that could trigger political uncertainties. On Tuesday evening, the General Elections Commission (KPU) indeed officially declared Jokowi the winner of the election.

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Both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and Indonesian stocks posted a good performance on Monday (21/07). Main reason for this positive performance is increased speculation that presidential hopeful Joko Widodo has won the election. Based on information originating from the General Elections Commission (KPU), Widodo has won the election by a safe margin of five percentage points. On Tuesday 22 July 2014, the KPU will officially release the result. However, rival Prabowo Subianto will probably challenge the result.

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Recent elections in Indonesia have met with a great deal of attention and look to be a decisive moment for the country. We are looking at a country that has major financial problems and also is making a decision about the direction of its democracy. Prabowo Subianto has pledged to conduct a rollback in some of the aspects of Indonesia’s democracy. So the supporters of Indonesian democracy will be watching very closely to see how the recent election events will unfold.

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