China's yuan (also known as renminbi) was included in the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) - with a weightage average of 10.91 percent - on Tuesday (01/12), a decision that will take effect on 1 October 2016. Other currencies in the SDR are the US dollar, euro, pound sterling and yen. This move implies that the currency of the world's second-largest economy is increasingly regarded as a global financial instrument and will be increasingly used in transactions across the globe and widely traded on foreign exchange markets.

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With a staggering 271,000 jobs added to the US economy in October, exceeding forecasts by a big margin, while the US unemployment rate eased to 5.0 percent, the majority of analysts and market participants now expect to see a 25 basis points Fed Fund Rate hike in December (markets are currently pricing in a 70 percent chance of a December US rate hike). Meanwhile, trade data from China underscore the persistent economic slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. What are the effects of these issues on Indonesian assets?

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With the exception of Japan, the majority of stock markets in Asia were under pressure on Wednesday (21/10) on concern about China's economic growth as Japan's exports to China fell 3.5 percent year-on-year in September. Today, it was announced that Japan posted a USD $95 billion trade deficit in September, worse than previously estimated, primarily on weakening exports due to slowing economic growth in China. However, Japanese stocks rose on stimulus hopes.

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After the government of Indonesia unveiled the second installment of its economic policy package on Tuesday (29/09), the central bank (Bank Indonesia) followed suit by releasing a rupiah exchange rate stabilization package on Wednesday (30/09). Bank Indonesia’s package has three main pillars: (1) safeguarding rupiah rate stability, (2) strengthening rupiah liquidity management, and (3) strengthening foreign exchange supply and demand management.

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In an effort to support the ailing Indonesian rupiah, state-owned energy company Pertamina will cut its foreign exchange purchases on the spot market by around 50 percent. Pertamina together with state utility firm Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) account for about half of Indonesia's daily foreign exchange (forex) transactions as these companies require US dollars for fuel purchases and overseas debt settlements.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is set to announce the second installment of a policy package that aims at raising onshore US dollar supplies (and liquidity). As the rupiah has been the second worst-performing Asian emerging market currency (after Malaysia’s ringgit), having depreciated 18.1 percent against the US dollar so far in 2015, Indonesian policymakers are anxious to prop up the ailing currency in order to safeguard the country’s financial stability. Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) stood at IDR 14,690 per US dollar on Friday (25/09), a 17-year low.

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According to credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P), Indonesian companies will have difficulty to pay their (growing) overseas debt in case the rupiah will touch IDR 15,000 per US dollar. Particularly as most Indonesian companies have to face declining profit and revenue growth due to curbed domestic demand amid Indonesia’s economic slowdown.

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Concern about Indonesia’s financial stability has heightened as the country’s foreign debt (USD $304.3 billion), by far, exceeds the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves which stood at USD $105.3 billion in late August 2015. Meanwhile, the weak rupiah (having depreciated nearly 15 percent against the US dollar so far in 2015) adds significant pressure on Indonesia’s foreign debt position hence causing concern about a looming debt crisis.

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Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves fell to USD $105.3 billion in late August 2015 (from USD $107.6 billion in the preceding month) as the government used foreign exchange (forex) for external debt payments while the central bank (Bank Indonesia) used part of the forex to intervene in the currency market in an effort to support the ailing rupiah rate which has been under severe pressure amid looming further monetary tightening in the USA and concern about the hard landing of China’s economy.

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The fall of Indonesian stocks and the rupiah on Wednesday (12/08) is much more severe than had previously been expected. By 11:14 am local Jakarta time, the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index had fallen 3.12 percent to 4,478.56 points, while the rupiah had depreciated 1.75 percent to IDR 13,845 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Across Asia, emerging markets are badly affected (for a second straight day) by China’s decision to devalue its yuan. The yuan is now at its weakest level since October 2012.

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Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 17-18 December 2013, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate is continuing its depreciating trend as the economies of the USA and Japan, particularly the capital markets, are improving and causes the US dollar and Yen to appreciate against other currencies. Both currencies are considered safe havens amid the current volatile world economy. One of the victims is the rupiah, which fell to IDR 12,126 per US dollar at 12.30 local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Both the Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index) and the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate are under pressure this morning as market participants are waiting for results of the central bank's Board of Governor's meeting that is held today (12/12) in Jakarta. Speculation has emerged that Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) will raise its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) one more time in 2013 in order to combat the country's current account deficit as well as mitigate the impact of a possible winding down of QE3.

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Although Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) was kept at the level of 7.5 percent (in line with market expectation) today (12/12), it was not able to support the country's stock index. Indonesia's IHSG index fell 1.39 percent to 4,212.22 points. The index was negatively impacted by Asian stock indices that were down due to concerns about the looming end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. This made investors' positive reaction to the BI rate of temporary nature. Weak openings in Europe increased downward pressure.

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One of the main problems of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) is the profit taking that immediately happens after a day of strong growth. On Wednesday (11/12), the IHSG index was plagued by profit taking since the start of the first trading session. Moreover, the index was impacted by mostly falling Asian stock indices as well as the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate which went above the IDR 12,000 per US dollar level again. The only support the IHSG received was just before its closing when European indices opened up.

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Throughout the morning, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate showed volatile movement on Tuesday (10/12). In the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency was up 0.45 percent to IDR 11,920 per US dollar at 16:20:51 local Jakarta time. The rupiah's performance is volatile because negative sentiments are brought on by improving economic data from the USA, causing a strengthening US dollar, while positive market sentiments are brought on by the new fiscal policies that were announced by the Indonesian government.

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After appreciating on Monday morning (09/12), the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate started to weaken against the US dollar in the afternoon. At 15:10:29 local Jakarta time, the rupiah stood at IDR 11,970 per US dollar in the Bloomberg Dollar Index, a 0.05 percent depreciation from the start of the day. The rupiah exchange rate is fluctuating due to positive sentiments caused by Indonesia's October trade surplus as well as China's low inflation and negative sentiments brought on by the looming end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program.

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In the morning of Thursday (05/12), Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated beyond the psychological level of IDR 12,000 per US dollar. In the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah fell 0.2 percent to IDR 12,011 as of 09:19:49. The main factor behind this decline is market participants' concerns about the end of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion bond buying program. It is increasingly speculated that the winding down of this program will start sooner than expected.

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The continued presence of negative market sentiments made it impossible for Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) to rebound. The looming end of the FED's quantitative easing program - which may be wound down sooner than expected - is a big cause for concern. The depreciating Indonesia rupiah exchange rate intensifies these concerns, particularly regarding companies that have exposure to volatile US dollar movements. Furthermore, investors are waiting for further US economic data as well as for Bank Indonesia's next meeting.

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Various factors contributed to the 2.30 percent decline of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) on Tuesday (26/11). The index in fact fell below its support level. What were the main reasons for this weak performance? Firstly, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate has been depreciating severely and causes concerns among market players. Secondly, most Asian stock indices fell as valuations climbed high and the Japanese Yen strengthened. Thirdly, European stock openings on Tuesday were weak. All these reasons together led to foreign net selling.

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The Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index, abbreviated IHSG) made a positive start on Monday (25/11). Investors were confident amid today's rising indices throughout Asia, brought on by the record breaking Dow Jones Index on Wall Street at the end of last week. However, this market optimism failed to provide a significant boost to the IHSG as the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its downward spiral. The IHSG was up 0.39 percent to 4,334.80 points at the end of Monday's trading day.

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