Amid unclarity over the newly introduced mandatory use of letters of credit (L/C), the Indonesian government has showed some flexibility. Starting from Wednesday (01/04) Indonesian exporters of four key commodities - coal, palm (kernel) oil, oil & gas, and minerals - are required to use L/C for all export deals. This new rule was developed in order to increase Indonesia’s export earnings and enhance monitoring sales of the country’s natural resources. However, a temporary exemption is now made possible.

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The coal mining industry continued its downward trend in 2014 amid weak global coal demand and an oversupply on the market. The benchmark Newcastle port thermal coal price fell 29 percent (y/y) over 2014 and declined a further 8 percent in the first quarter of 2015. As a result, Indonesian coal miners reported mostly weak 2014 corporate earnings. However, Indonesian miners are concerned that two new regulations will cause more problems. The Indonesian government plans to raise coal royalties and introduce mandatory letters of credit.

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On 15 March 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as an analysis of the rupiah performance, a forecast on the February 2015 trade balance, earnings in Indonesia’s coal mining industry, the processed food & beverage industry, the Trans-Sumatra toll road, and more.

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Corporate earnings of Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have generally weakened in 2014, evidencing that the coal mining industry, which was a lucrative business in the 2000s during the commodities boom (until 2011), is still experiencing a slowdown amid global economic trouble. The sluggish global economy has resulted in weak demand for commodities such as coal and crude palm oil (two important foreign exchange earners of Indonesia). Particularly slowing economic growth in China is a concern.

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On 1 March 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as a forecast for February inflation, an analysis of the rupiah exchange rate, news from the coal mining and palm oil sectors, Islamic finance, the IPO of Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat, and more.

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Bad news for Indonesian coal miners as the government of Indonesia plans to raise coal royalties in March 2015 in a bid to increase revenue from the natural resources sector. Apart from raising royalties, the government will also implement measures to enhance monitoring in the coal mining sector (as illegal coal shipments and tax avoidance are a major problem). The plan to nearly double coal royalties are particularly expected to impact negatively on smaller miners and new firms that focus on the production of low-quality coal.

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On 25 January 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the impact of the Eurozone’s quantitative easing program on Indonesia’s stocks and currency, the global challenges that are being faced by Indonesia, an infrastructure update, international relations, and more.

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Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) Agus Martowardojo said that there are two main global challenges that are being faced by Southeast Asia’s largest economy and which can impact negatively on the nation’s economy. These challenges are the low global oil prices (which have fallen below USD $50 per barrel) and the monetary policy normalization of the US Federal Reserve amid the structural economic recovery of the USA. This policy involves higher US interest rates (expected in the second half of 2015) and a bullish US dollar.

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Bob Kamandanu, Chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), advises the government of Indonesia to cut the country’s coal production by about 50 million tons and cap coal exports at 300 million tons in 2015 in an effort to boost global coal prices which are currently touching an eight-year low amid the sluggish global economy (particularly weakening coal demand from China) in combination with a coal oversupply. Indonesia is the world’s leading exporter of thermal coal which is primarily used in electricity generation.

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After the World Bank released a rather gloomy forecast for global economic growth on Tuesday (13/01) while crude oil prices continue to fall, global commodity prices have become under pressure on Wednesday’s trading day. In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank said that the global economy will grow 3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015, down from its previous estimate of 3.4 percent (y/y). Its growth forecast for economic growth in 2016 was also revised down from 3.5 percent (y/y) to 3.3 percent.

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As is widely known, coal is the most important energy source for the generation of electricity in Indonesia. Among the key reasons are that Indonesia has huge reserves of coal under its soils (hence it is relatively cheap to use coal, hence attracting plenty of private investment amid ever-growing electricity consumption in Indonesia over the past two decades) and efficient coal-fired power plant technology.

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Both Indonesia’s export and import performance was quite amazing in March 2022. While we expected imports to rebound ahead of the start of the Ramadan month (on 1 April 2022), a month that typically gives rise to a big increase in consumption, we did underestimate Indonesia’s export performance in last month’s forecast.

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Currently, coal certainly ranks among the most interesting commodities. On the one hand, Indonesia expressed its commitment to reduce consumption of this dirty fossil fuel (that is especially used as raw material for the generation of electricity in power plants but also in various manufacturing industries such as the cement industry and textile industry) as the country seeks to become ‘carbon neutral’ by 2060 (although many doubt to what extent Indonesia is really committed to this ambition; after all, it has more immediate concerns such as the dozens of millions of Indonesians living below, and just above, the national poverty threshold).

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Over the past couple of months –essentially since touching a low in August 2020– global coal prices have surged. In January 2021 coal prices were at their strongest levels in almost two years (before experiencing a mild correction in February 2021).

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By revising Indonesian Government Regulation No. 23/2010, the Indonesian government plans to provide local coal miners more certainty by allowing an earlier submission of a request for the extension of mining concessions. Stakeholders in the mining sector argue that this would considerably strengthen the nation’s investment climate, specifically the coal mining industry, on the back of improved legal certainty.

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Only a few months after the Indonesian government had imposed a price cap on mandatory sales of local coal to Indonesia's state-owned electricity company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) under the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme, the government now plans to revise this regulation. Coming Tuesday (31/07) a high-level meeting is to take place where decisions will be taken.

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Last week shareholders of Indonesia-based coal mining company Indo Tambangraya Megah decided to distribute USD $252 million in dividends to the company's shareholders, implying a nearly 100 percent dividend payout ratio of its full-year 2017 net income. The dividend payout is divided into USD $105 million worth of interim dividend (IDR 1,300 per share) and USD $147 million worth of final dividend (IDR 1,840 per share). Interim dividend was distributed on 21 November 2017, while the final dividend will be paid on 20 April 2018.

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Through Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry Regulation No. 19/2018 on the Procedures for Determining Benchmark Prices of Metal and Coal Sales as well as through Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry Regulation No. 1395 K/30/MEM/2018 on the Selling Price of Coal for the Electricity Supply for the Public Interest the Indonesian government confirmed a new set of rules in the coal mining sector, specifically regarding coal that is sold domestically under the domestic market obligation.

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The big Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange expect to raise their production volumes in 2018 amid rising global demand and the subsequent stronger coal price. Moreover, most local coal companies were heavily affected by bad weather in 2017 and therefore their output had been curtailed naturally, while coal prices had actually been skyrocketing since mid-2016.

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Through Trade Ministry Regulation No. 82/2017 on the Terms of Use of National Shipping and Insurance Companies for the Export and Import of Certain Goods the Indonesian government requires exporters of crude palm oil (CPO), coal and rice to use ships that are owned by local sea transport companies as well as to use domestic insurance. This regulation will come into effect, gradually, per May 2018.

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