Credit growth in Indonesia improved in October 2016 after touching a low in the preceding month. In October credit growth in Indonesia was recorded at a pace of 7.4 percent year-on-year (y/y), reaching IDR 4,246.6 trillion (approx. USD $314.6 billion), accelerating from a growth pace of 6.4 percent (y/y) in September. This development is caused by Bank Indonesia's lower interest rates although the victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 US presidential election may have curtailed demand for credit due to the higher degree of uncertainty about future US political and economic policies.

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The Financial Services Authority (OJK), the Indonesian government agency that regulates and supervises the country's financial services sector, expects credit growth in Indonesia to expand by a bleak 6 - 7 percent (y/y) in 2016, far below the initial growth forecast of 12 - 14 percent (y/y). OJK Chairman Muliaman D. Hadad said credit growth is slowing in Indonesia amid sluggish global and domestic economic growth as well as the strategy of companies to settle debts rather than seek credit for business expansion, while individual credit demand remains bleak as well.

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Credit growth in Indonesia is expected to have continued its slide in Q3-2016. On an annual basis, credit growth may have eased to 6 percent. Bank Indonesia, the nation's central bank, still upholds its 2016 credit growth target of 7-9 percent (y/y) as it eyes an improvement in credit disbursement in the last quarter of the year. Slowing corporate credit growth signals that firms are less enthusiastic to engage in business expansion and investment, while easing individual credit growth implies that consumers are less eager to obtain loans for the purchase of property, cars and motorcycles.

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Indonesian entrepreneurs say their credit demand is limited due to few expansion and investment plans ahead of the end of the year. Although the Indonesian economy is recovering - reflected by accelerated GDP growth figures in the first two quarters of the year - demand from abroad for Indonesian products remains weak, while domestic demand remains somewhat subdued as well (reflected by the nation's structurally weakening export and import figures over the past 15 months). As a result credit growth has been slowing accordingly.

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Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals and future economic outlook have improved in recent months, supported by government spending, recovering household consumption and rising commodity prices, Indonesian banks remain very conservative when it comes to disbursing new credit to companies. Recently, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) cut its projection for credit growth in the nation's banking sector this year from the range of 10 - 11 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 7 - 9 percent (y/y).

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The net interest margin (NIM) of Indonesian banks rose while the nation's credit growth slowed and economic growth remained 'bleakish'. In June 2016 the average NIM of Indonesian banks was recorded at 5.59 percent compared to 5.32 percent in the same month one year earlier. The higher NIM is the result of improved credit quality, reflected by a lower non performing loan (NPL) ratio. NIM is the difference between interest income generated by banks and the amount of interest paid out by banks to the lenders. A higher NIM implies that the bank is more profitable.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of 2016 to improve slightly to 4.9 - 5.0 percent (y/y) compared to the 4.92 percent (y/y) GDP growth realization in the first quarter of the year. Regarding growth in full-year 2016, Bank Indonesia remains optimistic that a 5.4 percent growth pace can be achieved supported by a looser monetary policy (that should boost demand for credit). Bank Indonesia cut its key interest rate (BI rate) by 0.25 percentage point to 6.50 percent in the June policy meeting.

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Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, is studying whether it should relax the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for the purchase of a house through the house ownership credit scheme (in Indonesian: kredit pemilikan rumah, abbreviated KPR). Furthermore, Bank Indonesia may allow the KPR scheme for the purchase of a second house that is still under construction. These measures would be efforts to boost credit growth, particularly in the property sector, and boost overall economic activity in Indonesia.

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Local media in Indonesia report that the Indonesian government has a list of 6,000 names of Indonesians that are ready to repatriate their funds in order to take advantage of the tax incentive provided by the Tax Amnesty Bill. This controversial bill, which is currently being discussed by Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR), makes it attractive for tax evaders to repatriate their undeclared wealth into Indonesia as they are offered tax incentives and protection from prosecution.

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Credit disbursement in Indonesia's banking sector grew at its slowest pace in six years in the first quarter of 2016. This weak performance is attributed to the slowdown in the country's real sector. Muliaman D. Hadad, Chairman of Indonesia's Financial Services Authority (OJK), said credit expansion grew 10 percent (y/y) to IDR 4,084 billion (approx. USD $300 billion) in Q1-2016. However, Hadad remains optimistic that credit expansion will accelerate in the second half of the year in line with forecasts for accelerating GDP growth. This will be a better context for businesses to expand.

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Rapid development of financial technology (fintech), which involves the delivery of financial services that use the latest technology and innovation to compete with the world's traditional financial methods, is also visible in Indonesia.

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Bank Indonesia (BI) is the central bank of the Republic of Indonesia, and was known as "De Javasche bank" or "The Java Bank" in the colonial period.  Bank Indonesia was founded on 1 July 1953 from the nationalization of De Javasche Bank. As an independent state institution, Bank Indonesia is fully autonomous in formulating and implementing each of its assumed tasks and most policy goals tend to center around the ability to stabilize prices in the economy.

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Although generally credit growth in Indonesia has been weak so far this year, disbursement of micro credit (in Indonesian: Kredit Usaha Rakyat, or KUR) has been solid in the first eight months of the year. KUR is a government-sponsored subsidy offered to the country’s smallest entrepreneurs (for example street food vendors). Through KUR, Indonesia’s commercial banks can provide working capital at lower interest rates (compared to most other micro loans). This is made possible by an insurance plan involving state-owned insurance firms Perum Jamkrindo and Askrindo.

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Bank Indonesia cut its projection for credit growth in the nation's banking sector this year from the range of 10 - 11 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 7 - 9 percent (y/y). This downward revision is in line with the central bank's earlier decision to cut its forecast for economic growth from the range of 5.0 - 5.4 percent (y/y) to 4.9 - 5.3 percent (y/y) in 2016. The slightly less rosy outlook is caused by the Indonesian government's decision to cut spending for the remainder of the year, while global economic growth remains subdued.

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Indonesian listed financial institution Bank Tabungan Negara should benefit from the government's Housing Loan Liquidity Facility (in Indonesian: Fasilitas Likuiditas Pembiayaan Perumahan, or FLPP), a government-subsidized mortgage program for those low-income citizens who have never bought a house before. This scheme should boost House Ownership Credit (Kredit Pemilikan Rumah, or KPR) in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Good news for Bank Tabungan Negara, which is the market leader in Indonesia's mortgage loans sector.

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At Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors’ meeting, convened today (10/07), it was decided to keep the country’s benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, and the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility rates held at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. According to the central bank this policy is consistent with efforts to steer inflation back towards the target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level.

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Regarding stock trading on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, investors who focused on property, banking and infrastructure stocks have made the highest profit so far in 2014. Although all sectoral indices that are contained within the benchmark stock index of Indonesia, known as the Jakarta Composite Index (abbreviated IHSG) have shown a good performance, the three aforementioned sectoral indices stand out as the country's top performers. Indonesia's IHSG has risen 16.14 percent between 1 January and 26 May 2014.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided at today’s Bank Indonesia Board of Governors’ Meeting, convened on 8 May 2014, to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate held at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. This policy is consistent with efforts to steer the rate of inflation towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level.

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Currently, one of Indonesia's main financial issues (and one which puts serious pressures on the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate) is the country's wide current account deficit. According to data from Statistics Indonesia, Indonesia's current account deficit totaled USD $8.4 billion in the third quarter of 2013. This figure is equivalent to a whopping 3.8 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). Generally, a current account deficit that exceeds 2.5 percent of GDP is considered unsustainable.

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According to Ferry Salanto, Associate Research Director at Colliers International Indonesia, the weakening rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar in recent months has resulted in an increase of property sales in Indonesia, particularly apartments. Salanto says it is not just an investment for the buyer but also a matter of security. Property is currently a better and safer alternative to the holding of rupiahs. In the third quarter of 2013, property sales increased despite the higher benchmark interest rate and the tightening property credit environment.

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