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At the annual meeting of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) at the very end of November 2023, Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo said the central bank is optimistic about accelerating economic growth in the next two years (2024 – 2025).
While we had hoped to see Indonesia’s gross domestic product (or GDP) growth rate at 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2023 (Q3-2023), it was not a real surprise to see the growth rate fall slightly below that level.
As if the external environment wasn’t already challenging enough, a new geopolitical crisis broke out when military organization Hamas attacked Israel in the morning of 7 October 2023 (from the Gaza Strip), killing over 1,400 Israelis while taking hostage more than 200 people.
Indonesia’s Statistical Office (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) shared some great news on 7 August 2023. The agency announced that Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2023. This was better than most forecasts, including our projection of 4.9 percent (y/y).
In this article we take a look at the strength of the Indonesian economy by assessing a variety of macroeconomic indicators such as retail sales, consumer confidence, and credit growth.
In December 2022 the Asian Development Bank (ADB) cut its forecast for economic growth of Indonesia in full 2023 from 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 4.8 percent (y/y). In its Asian Development Outlook Supplement (the December 2022 edition), the institution noted that weak economic growth in developed countries will impact negatively on Indonesia’s export performance.
Despite the challenging international conditions (aggressive monetary tightening in the United States, the Russo-Ukrainian war, stagflation, a looming recession across the West, and weak growth in China) and a significant rise in the prices of subsidized fuels on 3 September 2022, Indonesia posted another solid economic growth rate.
In our July 2022 report we asked ourselves the question: ‘should we become more optimistic about Indonesia’s economic growth?’ since our outlook for the Indonesian economy in Q2-2022 fell out of tune with the general consensus held by a selection of international and domestic institutions. While our pessimistic stance served us well in 2020 and 2021 (when our projections also fell out of tune with the general consensus), this time it is our side that needs to revise its stance
At the start of June 2022, the World Bank decided to cut its forecast for Indonesia’s economic growth in full-year 2022 from the level of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.1 percent (y/y). Do we need to be concerned?
The Statistical Agency of Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released Indonesia’s Q1-2022 gross domestic product (GDP) data on 9 May 2022. Based on its calculation the Indonesian economy expanded 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y), which is in fact better –albeit very modestly– than our projection that was set at 5.0 percent (y/y).
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Indonesia’s economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 was slightly better than we had anticipated. Just prior to the release of Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) data on 5 February 2025 (by Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), we revised our outlook for Indonesia’s Q4-2024 economic growth from 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) to the range of 4.9–5.0 percent (y/y) due to a number of weaker-than-estimated macroeconomic data.
We are gradually approaching the first 100 days in office of the new administration in Indonesia (under the leadership of President Prabowo Subianto). Does that show in the latest economic indicators?
On Friday (06 December 2024), Indonesia Investments released the November 2024 edition of its monthly report. It zooms in on the most relevant economic, social and political developments that occured in Indonesia in the month of November 2024.
Before we zoom in on Indonesia, it is worth taking a closer look at the latest reports released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In its World Economic Outlook (released in October 2024), the IMF stated that global economic growth is expected to remain stable, yet underwhelming, at 3.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2024.
Indonesia’s economic growth in the second quarter of 2024 (Q2-2024) was good, although slightly below our projection of 5.1 percent year-on-year (y/y). According to the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data, which were released by Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (in Indonesian: Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) on 5 August 2024, the Indonesian economy expanded by 5.05 percent (y/y) in Q2-2024.
Before we take a look at the latest macroeconomic data from Indonesia, first there is some good news to share as both the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) decided to revise up their projections for the Indonesian economy in 2023.
As usual, we take a look at a number of macroeconomic indicators to assess the state of the Indonesian economy ahead of the release of Q2-2023 gross domestic product (GDP) data (we expect Indonesia’s Statistical Agency, or BPS, to release the data in the second week of August 2023).
On 5 May 2023, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released the latest official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data of Indonesia. BPS announced that the Indonesian economy expanded by 5.03 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q1-2023, a good result that is in line with our expectations.
The holy Islamic fasting month (Ramadan) and the weeklong celebrations that mark the end of the Ramadan (known as Idul Fitri or Lebaran in Indonesia) is important for the Indonesian economy as it is a period when people consume more than usual.
On 06 February 2023, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) released the latest official gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia. The data were in line with expectations.
