With the development of a production hub for low cost green cars (LCGCs), Indonesia hopes to become the leading car producer within the group of ASEAN nations. Total car sales in ASEAN in 2012 surpassed the three million cars mark. The two largest contributors to these sales were Thailand (1.3 million sold cars) and Indonesia (1.1 million). Currently, Thailand is still the largest car production hub in the ASEAN region, both in terms of production rate and domestic sales (despite having only 60 million citizens to Indonesia's 240 million).

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Indonesian car sales may rise up to ten percent (y/y) to 1.1 million vehicles in 2016, from an estimated 1 million this year, amid accelerating economic growth in Indonesia. Car sales in 2015 have been disappointing, declining 18 percent (y/y) to 853,008 units in the first ten months of 2015, due to people's weakening purchasing power. Sales in 2016 are expected to be boosted by sales of the low-cost green car (LCGC), which was introduced on the Indonesian market in late-2013, and the crossover utility vehicle, a car that has gained popularity recently.

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Global consulting firm Frost & Sullivan expects Indonesian car sales to grow five percent year-on-year (y/y) to 1.28 million vehicles in 2015, particularly on the rising popularity of the low cost green car (LCGC) and the USA-based company’s assumption that the economy of Indonesia will expand by 5.5 percent (y/y) this year. The LCGC was introduced on the Indonesian market in late 2013 after the government had offered tax incentives to car manufacturers that met requirements of fuel efficiency targets.

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Amid Indonesia’s slowing economic growth as well as looming higher prices of subsidized fuels (which will cause accelerated inflation and declining purchasing power), domestic car sales in Indonesia have fallen 6.3 percent to 104,916 units in October 2014 from the same month last year according to preliminary data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo). Cumulatively, car sales reached 1.04 million units in the first ten months of 2014, a slight 1.6 percentage point increase from the same period last year.

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After Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Vice President Jusuf Kalla have confirmed that prices of subsidized fuels (gasoline and diesel) will be raised in November 2014 in an attempt to ease the country’s wide current account deficit and government budget deficit (which are primarily caused by costly oil imports), domestic car manufacturers and dealers are expected to post declining earnings in 2015. Besides the subsidized fuel price issue, Indonesia’s car industry is also negatively impacted by the country’s slowing economic growth.

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Despite higher car prices due to the depreciating rupiah exchange rate, domestic car sales in Indonesia rose 11 percent to 107,496 in January 2014 compared to the same month last year. January sales were particularly supported by sales of the low cost green car (LCGC) and low multipurpose vehicle (LMPV). Both these car types enjoy high popularity in Indonesia. In 2013, the Indonesian government provided tax incentives for the establishment of a domestic LCGC industry.

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Indonesia's automotive industry experienced some drastic changes in recent years. Originally regarded as a mere production hub due to cheap productions costs (particularly wages), it changed into a major car sales market as per capita GDP continues to grow and gives rise to an expanding middle class. Since 2011, domestic car sales in Indonesia have reached record highs and given that the country's per capita car ownership is still relatively low, there is room for more growth. But Indonesia is also eager to become an important car exporting country.

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Indonesian car sales have already exceeded the one million mark in October 2013. In the January-October period, 1,018,786 car units were sold, a ten percent increase compared to car sales in the same period last year. Growing demand for cars in Indonesia indicates that this sector of Southeast Asia's largest economy is not influenced by current negative market sentiments, such as the sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate (against the US dollar), high inflation (8.32 percent yoy in October 2013), and slowing economic growth.

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