The government of Indonesia has been preparing strategies to face Japan's possible complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) about Indonesia's recently introduced export ban of mineral ore (UU Minerba No. 4 - 2009). A special team from Indonesia's Trade Ministry, headed by Gusmardi Bustami, has been set up to handle the dispute. Japan feels forced to bring the export ban case to the WTO because its industry is highly dependent on the supply of certain raw Indonesian commodities, particularly nickel.

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Concerns about the arrival of a new El Niño weather phenomenon have increased in recent weeks. A possible new El Niño cycle has a major impact on the global commodities market. El Niño - a weather phenomenon that occurs once every five years on average - involves periodical warm ocean water temperatures off the western coast of South America which can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean. Its impact on harvests and the world varies; sometimes passing almost unnoticeable (such as in 2010) but it can also be felt worldwide.

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The government of Japan is most likely to file a complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) about Indonesia's recently introduced ban on the export of mineral ore (UU Minerba No. 4 - 2009). Although the WTO is yet to receive a formal letter of protest, Indonesian newspaper Investor Daily reported on Friday (04/04) that Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi has already received a letter from Japan's Minister of Foreign Affairs in which the step was announced. Japan feels forced to bring the case to the WTO as its industry is affected by the ban.

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Although the ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, which is set to start on 12 January 2014, is expected to result in a direct revenue loss of USD $4 billion in 2014 due to a decline in mineral exports, Deputy Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro believes that from 2016 onward a trade surplus can be recorded in Indonesia's minerals sector. In 2014, Indonesia's minerals sector may show a USD $10 billion trade deficit. But exports of processed minerals may grow from USD $4.9 billion in 2013 to USD $9 billion in 2015.

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The company profile of state-controlled Aneka Tambang (Antam) has been updated in the Indonesian companies' section. Antam is a vertically integrated, export-oriented, diversified mining and metals company in Indonesia. With operations spread throughout the mineral-rich archipelago, Antam undertakes all activities from exploration, exploitation, processing, refining to the marketing of its nickel ore, ferronickel, gold, silver, bauxite, coal and precious metals refining services.

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Vale Indonesia, Indonesia's largest nickel producer, posted an 80 percent decline in net income compared to 2011. Net income in 2012 totaled US $67.5, significantly down from US $333.8 in 2011. Main reasons for this poor performance were weakened metal and nickel markets due to global economic turmoil, which resulted in lower prices. Its average realized price per metric ton went down 26 percent, while operating costs increased 10 percent.

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Over the past decade we have seen some examples of protectionist tendencies in the mining sector of Indonesia. For example, gold and copper miner Freeport Indonesia came under Indonesian control in late-2018 after the state acquired a 52.1 percent stake in the company as a consequence of renegotiations (which also involved the extension of the company’s mining permits in Indonesia).

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If we take a look at Indonesian companies that went public in 2023 (becoming listed companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, or IDX), we see a couple of companies focused on nickel production, or nickel smelting and refining that made their trading debuts in Indonesia.

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In recent times, commodities have been ‘hot’. The rebound in economic activity after the COVID-19 pandemic (in combination with disrupted supply and logistics chains) started a high commodity price cycle. This cycle that was subsequently strengthened by the Russo-Ukrainian war.

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It is now about one month after the national Idul Fitri holiday when millions of city-dwellers travelled by air, road, rail and water back to their places of origin to spend a couple of days with their (extended) families. The positive news is that this huge movement of people did not lead to an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia.

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Vale Indonesia, Indonesia's largest nickel producer, is one of those mining companies that has been plagued by low commodity prices. Various securities companies have cut their recommendation for the purchase of Vale Indonesia's shares due to persistently low nickel prices. Net profit of Vale Indonesia is expected to decline by 50 percent (y/y) to USD $26 million in 2016 as the company's average nickel sales price is expected to fall 29.5 percent (y/y) to USD $6,848 per ton this year.

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At the start of 2014 Indonesia introduced its long-planned export ban on raw mineral ores in a bid to strengthen the domestic economy by reducing its dependence on raw commodity exports and instead forcing miners to process their raw ores domestically before exporting is allowed. Being an important global supplier of certain ores, this new Indonesian rule (stipulated by Law No.4/2009 on Coal and Mineral Mining) has a considerable impact on global markets and prices, one of which being nickel.

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Chinese ferronickel producer Virtue Dragon Nickel Industry plans to invest USD $5 billion for the establishment of a nickel smelter, power plant and a port. Andrew Zhu, President Director at Virtue Dragon Nickel Industry said that these facilities will be built on a 500-hectares estate in Konawe (Southeast Sulawesi). Zhu said that the nickel smelter development involves three phases. In the first phase, which should be finished by the end of 2015, the smelter will have an annual ferronickel production capacity of 600,000 tons.

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The global nickel price declined 5.1 percent on Tuesday (09/09) after it became known that the Philippines would not implement a ban on exports of this commodity yet. Similar to Indonesia, the Philippines was preparing to implement a ban on exports of unprocessed minerals in an attempt to boost revenues (by exporting mining products with added value). However, it may take seven years before such a policy is implemented. This implies that the occurrence of a possible shortage of nickel on the global market in the coming years has diminished.

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The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that 25 miners holding a Mining Business License (Izin Usaha Pertambangan, or IUP) have finished construction of their smelters in the first half of 2014 in line with Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (also known as the 2009 New Mining Law), which foresees a ban on exports of unprocessed minerals. General Director at the ministry, R. Sukhyar, said that some of these 25 smelters are still in the commissioning stage, while others are already in the production stage.

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Starting from 12 January 2014, the export of all mineral-ores are banned in Indonesia. This controversial new policy, stipulated by the 2009 Mining Law (on Minerals and Coal Mining), was agreed upon by the nine fractions in Commission VII of the Indonesian parliament (DPR). Through this new law, the government intends to increase the value of exports while reducing dependence on raw exports and thus becoming less vulnerable to price downswings on the global commodities market.

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