Good news for Indonesian manufacturers. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recorded a second consecutive month of growth, touching a 10-month high of 51.2 in April 2017 (from a reading of 50.5 in the preceding month), as further expansion in order books encouraged local companies to boost production, while the relatively weaker rupiah rate (versus the US dollar) exerted upward pressure on input prices, with cost inflation reaching an 18-month peak. Subsequently, output prices rose at an accelerated pace.

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Amid falling output and declining new orders as well as sharply rising input costs, Indonesia's manufacturing activity contracted again in February 2017. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to a reading of 49.3 in February, sliding from 50.4 in the preceding month (a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction, while a reading above 50.0 points at expansion of the manufacturing sector). Meanwhile, buying levels remained unchanged.

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Indonesia's manufacturing activity improved in the first month of 2017. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) grew to a reading of 50.4 in January 2017, from a reading of 49.0 in the preceding month supported by a slight increase in order books (a reading above 50 signals expansion of the nation's manufacturing industry, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction). The latest data end a three-month contraction streak in Indonesia's manufacturing sector.

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Indonesian stocks are expected to rise on Wednesday (04/01) amid positive sentiments stemming from around the globe although the strong US dollar, which remains near 14-year highs, puts some pressure on commodity prices (most notably on crude oil). On Tuesday (03/01), Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index declined 0.39 percent to 5,275.97 points as investors engaged in profit taking after the significant rally that occurred during the last couple of days before the end of 2016.

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Manufacturing activity in Indonesia continued to contract in the last month of 2016. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slid to a reading of 49.0 in December 2016, from 49.7 in the preceding month (a reading below 50.0 signals contraction, while a reading above 50.0 signals expansion). It was the third consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector of Southeast Asia's largest economy. The survey also showed that Indonesia's manufacturing exports showed their steepest fall since October 2015.

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Indonesia's manufacturing sector continued to contract in November 2016 (the second straight month of contraction), albeit at a slower pace. Indonesia's Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to a reading of 49.7 points last month from 48.7 points in October 2016 (a reading above 50.0 signals expansion of the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction). Contraction in November was largely blamed on subdued demand and floods in parts of Indonesia.

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Again concerns about Indonesia's manufacturing sector flared up after it was reported this morning that the Nikkei Indonesia manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) declined to a reading of 48.7 in October 2016 (dropping significantly from 50.9 in September). It was the first time since July 2016 that Indonesia's manufacturing PMI contracted (a reading below 50.0 signals contraction). Employment, new orders as well as output all contracted in October, while pre-production stocks rose (slightly).

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Good news for Indonesia's manufacturing industry. According to the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by IHS Markit, Indonesia's manufacturing expanded both in terms of new orders and production (albeit at softer rates) in September 2016. Growth of new export orders in fact touched a 46-month high. Indonesia's manufacturing PMI rose to a reading of 50.9 in September, up from 50.4 in the preceding month (a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion).

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Monday (01/08) that Indonesia's inflation rate reached 0.69 percent (m/m) in July 2016, considerably below analysts' forecasts. In fact, the 0.69 percent (m/m) pace is Indonesia's lowest July inflation rate since 2012. On a year-on-year basis, Indonesian inflation eased to a seasonally adjusted 3.21 percent (y/y), from 3.45 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Meanwhile, Indonesia's manufacturing activity plunged unexpectedly in July.

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Good news from Indonesia's manufacturing sector. Indonesia's Nikkei manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to a reading of 51.9 in June 2016, up from a reading of 50.6 points in the preceding month (a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50.0 signals contraction). The June reading of 51.9 was the highest reading since July 2014. Furthermore, the strongest expansion in Indonesia's payroll numbers in the survey's history occurred, while buying levels also rose markedly.

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Although conditions remain challenging, there is some room for optimism as manufacturing activity in Indonesia reportedly climbed in the last month of 2018. In December 2018 the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to a reading of 51.2, up from 50.4 in the previous month (a reading over 50 indicates expansion in the nation’s manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 points at contraction).

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Indonesia's manufacturing activity improved in April 2018, touching its fastest growth pace in 22 months, on the back of strengthening domestic demand. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to a reading of 51.6 in April 2018, up from 50.7 in the preceding month (a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction). However, business confidence towards the business outlook (for the year ahead) weakened to the lowest point since December 2012.

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Indonesia's manufacturing activity improved markedly in February 2018 with the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to a reading of 51.4, from 49.9 in January (the 50.0 level separates contraction from expansion). It was the fastest pace of growth for Indonesia's manufacturing sector since June 2016; growth that came on the back of rising output and new orders.

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Indonesia is being threatened by deindustrialization. There have been reports that rising minimum wages, the low quality of local human resources, or scarcity of local raw materials have been encouraging companies in certain industries to relocate to other countries in Asia. This partly explains why the manufacturing industry's role toward Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) has been on the decline.

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Indonesia's Nikkei manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) grew to a reading of 50.4 in November 2017, slightly improving from 50.1 in the preceding month when broad stagnation was detected. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction. Indonesia's November manufacturing growth was primarily caused by accelerating expansion in output and new orders.

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Activity in Indonesia's manufacturing industry tumbled into contraction again in June 2017, after having experienced four months of straight growth. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to a reading of 49.5 in June, from 50.6 in the preceding month (a reading of 50.0 separates contraction from expansion). Contraction in Indonesia's manufacturing sector is particularly blamed on a stagnation in domestic order books.

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In line with expectations, Indonesia's inflation rate eased to 2.79 percent year-on-year (y/y) in August 2016, from 3.21 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Consumer price inflation in Indonesia fell on the back of declining prices after the Islamic celebrations of Ramadan and Idul Fitri ended in July. On a monthly basis, Indonesia recorded deflation of 0.02 percent (m/m) in August. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector of Indonesia turned positive again.

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The first day of the month - in case of a working day - implies that investors can count on the release of several macroeconomic data from Indonesia, specifically inflation and manufacturing activity. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced this morning (01/06) that Indonesia's consumer inflation reached 0.24 percent (m/m), or 3.33 percent (y/y), in May 2016. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to a reading of 50.6 in May from 50.9 one month earlier. Lets take a closer look at these data.

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Growth of the manufacturing industry in Indonesia is expected to be significantly weaker in 2015 than initially forecast. Indonesia’s Industry Ministry cut its 2015 forecast for expansion of the country’s manufacturing industry to 6.1 percent (year-on-year) from the previous estimate of 6.8 percent. In tandem with slowing economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, manufacturing growth has slowed to 4.99 percent (y/y) in Q3-2014. Moreover, the HSBC/Markit PMI contracted to a record low of 48.0 in November 2014.

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Despite technical indicators suggesting further upward movement of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG), a positive performance of the index was blocked by external factors. Several Asian stock indices were down responding to Markit's lower US manufacturing PMI (slipping to 55.5 from 57.1 in February 2014). Similarly, China and the Eurozone's manufacturing data showed slowing growth. Continued appreciation of the rupiah exchange rate managed to limit the decline of the IHSG.

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