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Credit growth in Indonesia's banking sector is estimated to have, finally, touched double-digit figures in the first half of 2017, while growth should further accelerate in the remainder of the year. Some Indonesian banks saw their credit growth figures touch 20 percent (y/y) so far this year, a marked improvement from the situation one year ago. Lets zoom in on the performance of two big Indonesian banks.
A number of Indonesian big cap stocks have already released their first quarter 2017 corporate earnings. Most of them show good results and therefore the majority of analysts agree that full-year 2017 corporate earnings of Indonesian companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange should, generally, be good, especially considering economic growth of Indonesia is expected to accelerate further in the remainder of the year. However, some stocks have become expensive particularly after the recent strong performance of Indonesian stocks.
After having experienced overall weakening corporate earnings in 2015, Indonesia's largest companies saw rising net profit in full-year 2016 (in line with Indonesia's accelerating macroeconomic expansion last year). Of the ten biggest Indonesian companies (biggest in terms of largest market capitalization on the Indonesia Stock Exchange) only cigarette manufacturer Gudang Garam is yet to release its full-year 2016 financial results. The combined results of the other nine showed a marked improvement from the situation one year earlier.
What are good stock picks in 2017? According to Maybank Kim Eng Securities, those listed companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange that are set to see a good performance this year are Indofood Sukses Makmur (consumer goods), Telekomunikasi Indonesia (telecommunications), Astra International (automotive), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (banking) and Jasa Marga (toll roads). All are key blue chips with a long history in Indonesia. Lets take a quick look why these shares are advised by Malaysia-based Maybank Kim Eng.
Even though Indonesia's Financial Services Authority (OJK) has been eager to encourage local banks to raise efficiency, banks' ratio of operating expenses to operating income (ROEOI) has in fact risen. For example, the ROEOI of Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) rose 406 basis points from 68.04 percent in March 2015 to 72.10 percent in March 2016. BRI's Finance Director Haru Koesmahargyo said the bank's higher ROEOI is caused by the bank's rising non-performing loan (NPL) ratio. In Q1-2016 BRI's NPL ratio rose 20 basis points to 2.22 percent.
In 2016 listed companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange have a more expansive attitude compared to the preceding year, reflected by plans to raise capital expenditure. Plans for business expansion are supported by Indonesia's expected accelerating GDP growth in 2016, people's improving purchasing power, government-led infrastructure development (that should cause a multiplier-effect in the Indonesian economy), and the economic reforms that are set in the series of economic stimulus packages that have been released by the Indonesian government since September 2015.
Shares of Indonesian banks were hit hard on Friday (19/02) after Indonesia's Financial Services Authority (OJK) announced its plan to push state-owned banks net interest margin (NIM) to the range of 3 to 4 percent in a bid to lower the country's lending rates, hence boosting credit growth. NIM is the difference between interest income generated by banks and the amount of interest paid out to the lenders. A higher NIM implies that banks are more profitable. Currently, the average NIM for Indonesia's state-owned banks is between 7 - 8 percent.
Indonesian stocks and the rupiah experienced a remarkable rebound on Monday (05/10) as global markets were relieved to see weak US jobs growth data at the end of last week. On Friday (02/10), it was announced that US September non-farm payrolls stood at 142,000, far below the market consensus of 203,000. Most investors now believe that the US Federal Reserve has too little scope to raise its key interest rate before the end of the year or even before the second quarter of 2016.
One of the leading banks in Indonesia, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), opened its first branch in Singapore on Wednesday (29/07), located in the heart of the Lion City at OUE Bayfront, 50 Collyer Quay (near Marina Bay). Today, the new office of BRI was inaugurated by Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Sofyan Djalil, and the opening ceremony was witnessed by Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Rini Soemarno, and Chairman of the Board of Commissioners of the Financial Services Authority (OJK) Muliaman D. Hadad.
Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), predicts that the current economic turmoil in the Eurozone, caused by the Greek debt crisis, will impact on the stability of developing countries, including Indonesia. Although in terms of both trade and investment there should not be a real impact originating from Greek turmoil, the perception of macroeconomic stability will be somewhat hit on the back of global uncertainty. In line with most markets, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened on Monday (06/07).
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Since Friday (25/08) many Indonesians are having trouble to use ATMs (for withdrawing money and conducting various payments). Last week the Telkom-1 satellite started to suffer technical difficulties as a shift on the satellite's pointing antenna disrupted transponders. Considering most of Indonesia's major banks use this satellite, owned by Telekomunikasi Indonesia, for their telecommunication network, thousands of ATMs - hence millions of Indonesians - are affected.
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), one of the leading commercial banks in Indonesia, is expected to see rising corporate earnings in the years ahead supported by the disbursement of micro-loans. RHB OSK Securities says BRI, listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange yet state-controlled, is one of the most interesting banks as it has a strong micro-loans business model, a business model that cannot be easily copied by the nation's other commercial banks.
The Gods seemed not in favor of the BRIsat, the satellite of Indonesia's second-largest bank by assets Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI). The BRIsat was originally scheduled to be launched on 9 June 2016 (Indonesian timezone). However, due to technical problems and bad weather the launch had to be postponed three times. Finally, on early Sunday (20/06) the satellite was launched by Arianespace from the Guiana Space Center, Europe's Spaceport in Kourou (French Guiana), hence ushering in a new era for Indonesia's digital banking industry.
Regarding stock trading on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, investors who focused on property, banking and infrastructure stocks have made the highest profit so far in 2014. Although all sectoral indices that are contained within the benchmark stock index of Indonesia, known as the Jakarta Composite Index (abbreviated IHSG) have shown a good performance, the three aforementioned sectoral indices stand out as the country's top performers. Indonesia's IHSG has risen 16.14 percent between 1 January and 26 May 2014.
Despite mixed European and American markets on Wednesday (23/01) and declining Asian markets on Thursday (23/01) as these responded to weak Chinese manufacturing data and South Korea's Q4-2013 GDP outcome, it was unable to block Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) from extending its upward movement. The IHSG was supported by various positive company releases, including financial results of 2013, capital expenditure announcements, and new products or services releases.
The position of consultant, tasked to conduct a feasibility study for the Jakarta-Surabaya toll road, will be tendered in early 2014. The realization of the Jakarta-Surabaya toll road, a 775 kilometer-long toll road that is built above the sea (along the coast line between Jakarta and Surabaya), is an ambition of the Indonesian government and expected to ease the difficulty of transportation on Java, Indonesia's most populous island. The feasibility study should explore the technical and environmental framework related to the establishment of the toll road.
In order to improve Indonesia's intra-island connectivity on Java (and thus reduce logistics costs that are due to fragile infrastructure), the government is planning to build a toll road above the sea from the capital city of Jakarta in the western part of Java to Surabaya in East Java. Both these cities are Indonesia's centers of industrial productivity and economic growth. The 775 kilometer-long toll road, which is expected to cost about IDR 150 trillion (USD $13.3 billion), will be build by a consortium of 19 Indonesian state-owned enterprises.
Indonesia's largest company by market capitalization is still HM Sampoerna, the country's largest tobacco company. The company has been the top company in Indonesia since March 2013 when it replaced Astra International, Indonesia's largest diversified conglomerate, on the top spot. Astra had been Indonesia's largest company since 2010. Currently, the third-largest company in terms of market capitalization is Unilever Indonesia. Unilever, which is Indonesia’s largest consumer goods producer, jumped four places in the ranking since late 2012.
For three consecutive days, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) had to cope with significant losses. On Tuesday (11/06), the index fell 3.50 percent to 4,609.95 points, considerably below its record high level of 5,214 on 20 May 2013. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of IDR 3.98 trillion (USD $406.1 million) as domestic conditions in Indonesia are unstable. Moreover, investors are concerned about governments (USA and Japan) that want to slow down their stimulus programs as various economic data are showing positive outcomes.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its World Economic Outlook (edition April 2013) titled "Hopes, Realities and Risks". In the report, the IMF lowered its forecast for global economic growth from an initial 3.5 percent (January edition) to 3.3 percent currently. Although the IMF lowered its economic forecasts for most countries (including emerging markets as a whole), it revised up its projection for the ASEAN-5 countries¹ by 0.3 percent to 5.9 percent.
