In line with rising tourism in Indonesia, the value of hotel construction in Southeast Asia's largest economy is expected to grow 16 percent to IDR 21 trillion (approx. USD $1.6 billion) in 2016. Most of the new projects - roughly 21 percent - are located in the Greater Jakarta area. Besides tapping the tourism potential, hotel developers also want to tap the business potential, meaning that due to expected accelerated economic growth in 2016, there will arrive more foreign businessmen in Indonesia to attend meetings and other activities, particularly as the ASEAN Economic Community comes online.

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Indonesia’s rapidly growing population in combination with robust economic growth and underinvestment in infrastructure development has resulted in the country’s current lack of quality and quantity of infrastructure. This situation causes a steep increase in logistics costs and blocks efforts to develop and realize national and regional economic potentials (an efficient logistics system is crucial for socioeconomic development of Indonesia). However, government spending on infrastructure development is set to start soon.

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Indonesian property firm Pembangunan Perumahan Properti (PP Properti), which conducts its initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) this month, expects to raise IDR 908.8 billion (USD $69 million) for further business expansion through this corporate action. This figure is much lower than its initial target of IDR 1.57 trillion. PP Properti plans to sell 35 percent of the company’s enlarged capital. The price per share is set at IDR 185 with the offering period between 11 and 13 May 2015.

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The deadline for tenders for various infrastructure projects in Indonesia has been extended by the Public Works and Public Housing Ministry because it needs more time to determine the number of projects to be offered and to calculate new budget allocations for these projects. Ministry official Hediyanto W. Husaini said that his ministry is optimistic that by early May 2015 all construction projects can be tendered. Currently, only 9,578 construction projects (about 70 percent of total planned projects) can be tendered.

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Growth of cement sales in Indonesia is estimated to have slowed in 2014 amid uncertainties brought about by the ‘political year’ (referring to the fragmented results of the country’s legislative and presidential elections and which led to the postponement of various infrastructure projects and other investments in Indonesia). Other factors that impacted negatively on cement sales this year were the central bank’s higher interest rate policy, low commodity prices and weakening purchasing power.

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As the number of foreign tourists rise rapidly and there is increasing demand for conferences, exhibitions and business meetings, Indonesia will see a massive inflow of investments for the construction of hotels and condominium hotels (condominium hotels combine features of apartments and hotels). In 2015, the value of new (condo) hotels projects is estimated at IDR 38.5 trillion (USD $3.2 billion), up 57.3 percent from last year. Locations that attract tourists and locations close to education centers are the primary choice.

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Cement sales in Indonesia surged 21 percent month-to-month (m/m) to 5.6 million ton in September 2014 from 4.6 million ton in the preceding month. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said that the increase in Indonesian cement sales was supported by the start of a number of central and regional government infrastructure projects. Santoso also detected an increase in development of property projects. Infrastructure and property are the sectors that absorb most cement.

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Although Deputy Governor of the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), Halim Alamsyah, said that the non-performing loan (NPL) level in Indonesia’s banking sector is currently safe at 2.24 percent (well below the five percent threshold which is considered safe), the institution has been monitoring the high level of NPLs in four sectors: construction, trade, mining and social services. The bank will study why the ratio has been growing - whether it is a temporary phenomenon or not - and search the correct policy approach to address this issue.

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Cipta Kridatama, one of Indonesia leading mining contractor companies, plans to conduct an initial public offering on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) after 2015. The company believes that this corporate action will enhance transparency and good corporate management. Chief Executive officer (CEO) Irfan Setiaputri said that the company is eager to conduct the IPO but needs to wait until after 2015 in order to be fully prepared for this step. The company is currently busy expanding into other business sectors.

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Indonesian cement sales fell 25 percent to 3.7 million tons in July 2014 from 5 million tons in the same month last year. This sharp decline is attributed to the Lebaran holiday (also known as Idul Fitri in which Muslims celebrate the end of the fasting month) when businesses are closed as well as Indonesia’s July 2014 presidential election. Slowing cement sales are also caused by declining economic growth (5.12 percent yoy in Q2-2014). Cement sales are a key indicator for construction activity (infrastructure and property development).

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Indonesian general contractor Paramita Bangun Sarana targets to raise up to IDR 350 billion (approx. USD $26.5 million) through an initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The company will offer up to 300 million shares, equivalent to 20 percent of its enlarged capital, to investors through the corporate move. Vincentius Susanto, Secretary at Paramita Bangun Sarana, said the indicative price for shares is set in the range of IDR 1,000 - 1,300 a piece. The offering period for the shares is scheduled for 16 - 20 September 2016, while listing on the (IDX) is scheduled for 27 September.

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Construction companies in Indonesia are expected to grow strongly, supported by the availability of many new construction contracts, in the second half of 2016. Particularly state-controlled construction firms are expected to benefit from the government's push for infrastructure development. The central government's budget for infrastructure development has risen significantly in recent years (see table below), while the government also tries to direct part of the funds that are generated through the tax amnesty program toward infrastructure development.

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Today, Indonesia's House of Representatives passed the Tax Amnesty Bill into law. Indonesian authorities expect this bill to bring home trillions of rupiah (hundreds of million of US dollars) that partly flow into Indonesia's property sector. Total Bangun Persada, one of Indonesia's leading construction companies, is one of the companies that can benefit from these inflows. CIMB Securities expects the company's revenue to grow 6.8 percent (y/y) to IDR 2.52 trillion (approx. USD $189 million) in 2016.

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Corporate earnings of Indonesian state-controlled construction and investment company Pembangunan Perumahan (abbreviated PP) are in line with analysts' forecasts. In the first quarter of 2016, PP's revenue rose 30.6 percent (y/y) to IDR 2.58 trillion (approx. USD $195 million), while net profit rose 5 percent (y/y) to IDR 98 billion (approx. USD $7.4 million) from the same quarter one year earlier. These figures indicate the company experienced a solid start of the year.

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Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2016 was rather disappointing at 4.92 percent (y/y), below analyst estimates that averaged around 5 percent (y/y), due to slowing household consumption, private investors being in a wait-and-see mode, and relatively weak government spending (a usual phenomenon at the year-start). Indonesia's construction sector also grew weakish in Q1-2016. However, the construction sector still has good prospects in the years ahead on the back of the government's infrastructure projects.

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With Indonesia's construction and infrastructure sectors expected to grow in 2016, backed by government support, Indonesia-based steel pipe manufacturer Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia should manage to see higher net profit this year. The company, with its factories in Sidoarjo and Surabaya (East Java), has the largest steel pipe production capacity of all steel pipe producers in Indonesia. With its six factories - and 34 production lines - the company's production capacity currently stands at 588,600 metric tons per year.

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After having grown rapidly in the years 2010-2013, infrastructure development in Indonesia lost its momentum in 2014. This was due to limited available government funds, uncertainty caused by the legislative and presidential elections, and the nation's slowing economic growth. After Joko Widodo became Indonesia's seventh president in October 2014, it was expected that infrastructure development would revive. However, it didn't. But Widodo made one important move by seriously reducing energy subsidies, hence making more funds available for infrastructure development.

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In late September, the Minister of Public Works (Minister) issued Minister Regulation number 10/PRT/M/2014 regarding Guideline Requirements for Giving Permission Foreign Construction Service Representative Office (New Regulation). The New Regulation for construction representative offices in Indonesia replaces the old Minister regulation 05/PRT/M/2011 (Old Regulation) which had a similar title. The New Regulation has become more comprehensive than the Old Regulation and in this column we will discuss the most significant changes for foreign investors.

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Indonesian cement sales have slowed and may not achieve the target set for 2014. In the first half of 2014, the country’s domestic cement sales totaled 28.9 million tons, a 3.9 percentage point increase from the same period last year, well below the growth target of 6 percent (year-on-year, yoy). However, this development is no surprise as economic growth of Indonesia has slowed in recent years. Cement sales, a key indicator of construction activity (infrastructure and property development) are closely linked to general GDP growth.

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In the last 12 months, the international copper price showed a neutral movement (moving more or less sideways). This is particularly due to a number of issues in China, the world’s second largest economy, which impact negatively on the copper price movement. China has become such an important market for a variety of commodities, including copper (used in construction and electronics), that other countries can be considered almost irrelevant. Why do analysts have low expectations of the copper market for the remainder of 2014?

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