Political uncertainties in Indonesia brought on by the rivalry between president-elect Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) and defeated candidate Prabowo Subianto may have eased somewhat as both men met on Friday morning (17/10) in Jakarta. After the meeting Subianto stated that he fully supports the Jokowi-led government, while Jokowi stated that he is open to receive criticism from opposition in the House of Representatives (DPR). Jokowi will be inaugurated on 20 October 2014 as Indonesia’s seventh president.

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After a long plenary session of the People’s Consultative Assembly (or MPR), Zulkifli Hasan has been elected as the Speaker of the MPR for the period 2014-2019. Zulkifli Hasan, a former Indonesian Forestry Minister, is backed by the Merah-Putih coalition and thus his election constitutes another blow for president-elect Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi). The Merah-Putih coalition is a coalition of six political parties that support vindictive defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto.

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On 5 October 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such September inflation, August trade balance, the IPO of Blue Bird, a rupiah and stock update, a new plantations bill, political developments, and more.

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Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono announced to issue a presidential decree to override parliament’s approval of the controversial regional elections law. This new bill passed the House of Representatives (DPR) on Friday last week. Immediately institutions and people objected to the bill - which abolishes direct elections for regional leaders (leaving it to regional legislatures to elect mayors, district heads and governors) - as it is considered a step back for the country’s young democracy and reduces transparency.

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Incumbent Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) announced on Tuesday (30/09) that he prepares a plan to undermine the new bill - accepted by Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR) - that blocks direct elections for regional leaders (leaving it to regional legislatures to elect mayors, district heads and governors). Many institutions and people have objected against the new bill as it is regarded a setback for the democratization process in Indonesia. SBY also immediately expressed its concern about the passing of the new bill.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated sharply on Monday (29/09) due to the market’s reaction against parliament’s passing of a bill that ends direct elections in the regions. On Friday (26/09), parliament agreed that mayors, district heads and governors will be elected by local legislatures instead of the people. Critics say this bill is a major setback for democracy and makes the system more vulnerable to corruption. Last Friday, investors had already pulled USD $119 million from Indonesian shares.

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The most controversial and heatedly debated news story from Indonesia in the past week was parliament’s approval of a new bill that puts an end to direct voting in the regions. This means that it are not the people but instead the regional legislatures that will elect mayors, district heads and governors. Critics say this is a major setback for the democracy process of Indonesia and will make local elections prone to corruption, collusion and nepotism as Indonesia’s legislatures - both at the national and regional level - are believed to be corrupted to a high degree.

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Indonesian stocks and rupiah exchange rate weakened considerably on Friday (26/09) after Indonesian parliament approved a new bill that puts an end to direct local elections. Moreover, market sentiments were negative after stocks on Wall Street plunged on Thursday because of increasing concern about the global economy as well as consumers’ problems with Apple's latest software updates and new product launches (iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus) resulting in a 3.8 percent slide of Apple shares.

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Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR) passed a controversial bill in the early morning of Friday (26/09) that is widely criticized by media and analysts. After a walk out of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party (the largest party in parliament having 148 out of 560 seats) in the plenary session, parliament agreed that direct voting in the regions will be scrapped, thus leaving it to the regional legislatures to elect mayors, district heads and governors. Critics say this bill is a setback for democracy.

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With only one more day to go before the General Elections Commission (KPU) will release the official result of the July 2014 presidential election, it seems almost certain that it will take a Constitutional Court ruling for the final judgement. Over the weekend, data from KPU indicates that Joko Widodo has won the election by a margin of about five percentage points. However, his rival Prabowo Subianto has already stated that he will challenge the result as he claims that there are indications of fraud at several polling stations.

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In recent times, almost each year can be called a ‘political year’ for Indonesia as a big number of elections – especially at the regional level – need to be organized in this vast archipelago. Considering there are 34 provinces in Indonesia, containing 514 regents (kabupaten) and cities (kota), we see elections almost every year.

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The recent elections in Indonesia reinforced the durability of many historical trends in political and social conflict and development—specifically, the paramount importance of Islamic civil society organizations in the structuring of political conflict. Although often used to denote violent or rogue activity, ‘political conflict’ is a term used here to broadly characterize the oppositional dynamics within the formal political society sphere—the arena in which parties and politicians contend.

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The local elections that are held tomorrow (Wednesday 27 June 2018) are regarded a run-up to Indonesia's 2019 legislative and presidential elections. Tomorrow's results are a barometer to measure the political mood in the country with regard to next year's elections. After all, residents in the nation's four most populous provinces - West Java, East Java, Central Java, and North Sumatra - will visit the ballot boxes to vote for new governors. In total, 17 governors, 39 mayors and 115 regents will be elected across Indonesia on Wednesday.

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This week two domestic events need to be carefully watched by those who invest in Indonesian assets: (1) the local elections that are scheduled for Wednesday 27 June, and (2) Bank Indonesia's monthly policy meeting that is scheduled for 27-18 June. Lets take a closer look at these events.

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Indonesia's 2019 presidential election is likely to become another battle between incumbent President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and Gerindra party Chairman Prabowo Subianto. Both men had already been engaged in a fierce contest in 2014, one that was only narrowly won by Jokowi. On Wednesday evening (11/04) Subianto formally accepted the mandate of the Gerindra party to compete as presidential candidate in the 2019 presidential election (scheduled for 17 April 2019).

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In the past couple of days Indonesian media touched upon the government’s proposal to revive a law that had been removed by Indonesia’s Constitutional Court in 2006. This law makes the act of insulting the Indonesian president an illegal act and can lead to prison sentences and fines. Criticism on the government’s proposal immediately emerged as several legislators and human rights activists fear that freedom of speech will be curtailed in the young democracy. Moreover, it can further erode public support for President Joko Widodo.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.76 percent to IDR 12,481 per US dollar on Wednesday (21/01) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The performance of the rupiah was in line with most other emerging Asian currencies as Japan’s yen strengthened (against the US dollar) after Japan’s central bank announced to maintain an accommodative monetary policy in an attempt to boost inflation to two percent (y/y). Furthermore, speculation about quantitative easing in Europe boosted attractiveness of riskier Asian assets.

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More and more concerns have arisen recently regarding the democratic future of Indonesia. In fact, some media have reported that an impeachment of president-elect Joko Widodo, who will assume office on 20 October 2014, could become a reality as opposition in parliament - led by controversial and vindictive former army general Prabowo Subianto - is large. The Merah-Putih coalition, referring to the coalition of political parties that supported Subianto in the presidential election (which he narrowly lost to Widodo) will control 353 of the 560 seats in parliament.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) rose 0.18 percent to 5,142.01 points on Monday (29/09) despite the sharp depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate. Possibly market participants took advantage of relatively cheap blue chip stocks after the 1.3 percent drop on Friday (26/09) caused by negative market sentiments brought about by the parliament’s passing of a bill which abolishes direct voting of regional leaders. Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 542.4 billion.

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Recent elections in Indonesia have met with a great deal of attention and look to be a decisive moment for the country. We are looking at a country that has major financial problems and also is making a decision about the direction of its democracy. Prabowo Subianto has pledged to conduct a rollback in some of the aspects of Indonesia’s democracy. So the supporters of Indonesian democracy will be watching very closely to see how the recent election events will unfold.

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