On 19 September 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economy-related topics such as Indonesia's budget deficit, the tax amnesty program, GDP growth, the trade balance, micro credit, the case of Ford Motor Indonesia, coal mining, the ceramic industry, and more.

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The first period of Indonesia’s tax amnesty program is almost completed. This first period, which runs from July to 31 September 2016, offers the most attractive tax rates to those taxpayers who have not fulfilled their tax obligations in recent years. Through the government’s tax amnesty program they can declare previously undeclared assets and – if they have assets abroad (for example in the so-called tax havens) – they are encouraged to repatriate these funds into Indonesia through attractive tax incentives and immunity from prosecution, a move that met resistance in Singapore.

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The central government of Indonesia and Commission XI within Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) agreed to set the nation's economic growth target at 5.1 percent (y/y) in the draft state budget for 2017. This target is 0.2 percentage points below the GDP growth target that was mentioned by Indonesian President Joko Widodo in a speech last month (based on a financial note) and is also below the 5.2 GDP growth target that was set in the Revised 2016 State Budget. Less optimistic forecasts are especially caused by a cut in government spending.

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The governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, stated that he has become highly skeptical about the government's tax amnesty program that was launched in July. At a parliamentary hearing on Wednesday (07/09), Martowardojo said the central bank only expects to see IDR 21 billion (approx. USD $1.6 billion) in additional tax revenue through the amnesty program for the state and only USD $13.8 billion in repatriated funds. These new projections are significantly below the central bank's earlier projections.

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A total of 62 "big taxpayers" have joined Indonesia's tax amnesty program. According to local media their participation has resulted in a total of IDR 41.2 trillion (approx. USD $3.1 billion) worth of fund declarations and IDR 902 billion (approx. USD $68 million) in additional state revenue (tax). Meanwhile, the Tax Directorate General said there are more big Indonesian taxpayers ready to join the program. The tax office has formed a special team that calls the country's large businessmen on a daily basis to remind them about the tax amnesty program and their tax obligations.

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The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) expects to see 15 more companies conducting an initial public offering (IPO) on the local bourse in the remainder of the year, supported by the improving macroeconomic indicators of Indonesia (including a 5.18 percent y/y GDP growth pace in Q2-2016, 2.78 percent y/y inflation in August, and the central bank's lower interest rates) as well as the tax amnesty program (that should bring home trillions of rupiah, part of which finds its way into the local stock market). However, looming tighter monetary policy in the USA remains a challenge.

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On 4 September 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economy-related topics such as Indonesia's tax amnesty program, inflation, manufacturing, GDP growth, the smartphone market, crude palm oil, the textile industry, and much more.

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The ambitious tax amnesty program of the Indonesian government received support from three influential Indonesian businessmen. The first, James Riady, Chief Executive of the Lippo Group (and son of Mochtar Riady, the founding father of this huge conglomerate), joined the program by handing over his tax declaration documents to Indonesia's Tax Office on Friday (02/09). This declaration took place in front of an audience consisting of Indonesian press and therefore may cause some momentum for the controversial program that experienced a sloppy start.

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On 28 August 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economy-related topics such as Indonesia's 13th economic policy package, an update on the tax amnesty program, US monetary policy, the tobacco and cement industries, the Palapa Ring project, and more.

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After six years of steady decline, the Indonesian rupiah is likely to have appreciated against the US dollar at the end of 2016. So far this year, the currency of Indonesia has appreciated 4.8 percent to IDR 13,126 against the greenback (Bloomberg Dollar Index) supported by capital inflows, particularly into government bonds and stocks as well as the delay in further monetary tightening in the USA. Although the rupiah should depreciate a bit as we go towards the end of the year, it is set to finish the year at a stronger level than it started.

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Indonesia's Tax Office now has more power to check whether people and companies indeed pay taxes. Last week the Indonesian government basically scrapped the existence of banking data secrecy by introducing a new regulation that gives the nation's tax authorities access to information on accounts held at financial institutions, including bank accounts. The new regulation should contribute to a more transparent financial system and boost the government's (much-need) tax revenue realization. However, Indonesian parliament still needs to approve the new regulation.

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Indonesia's tax amnesty program ended on 31 March 2017, so now it is time to take a look at the results. Although Indonesia's amnesty program has been labelled as one of the most - if not the most - successful amnesty programs ever around the globe (in terms of asset declarations), there is plenty of room for disappointment. Based on data from Indonesia's Tax Office, less than one million Indonesians joined the program. For many nations this would be a great number. For Indonesia this number means tax evasion remains rampant, implying the government misses out on much-needed tax revenue.

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Indonesia's tax amnesty program will end soon. The nine-month program was designed to finish on 31 March 2017. Although the program has become the world's most successful tax amnesty program, it will fail to solve Indonesia's tax revenue collection problems. And with tax revenue being the largest source for public spending capacity, low tax compliance in Southeast Asia's largest economy obstructs more rapid development of the Indonesian economy.

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The tax amnesty program of Indonesia is yet to have an impact on Indonesia's property sector. Earlier, analysts and stakeholders expected part of the asset repatriations into Indonesia (under the government's tax amnesty program) to flow to property, either property ownership or property development projects. Although tax declarations and additional government revenue under the amnesty program were a success, the repatriation of assets that were stashed overseas has been weak. However, some stakeholders are optimistic that repatriated funds will flow to Indonesia's residential property in Q2-2017.

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Indonesia's budget deficit in 2016 is estimated to have reached 2.46 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), below the government's forecast of 2.7 percent of GDP and at a safe distance from the legal cap of 3.0 percent of GDP that is stipulated by Indonesian law. This is a positive matter that is supported by modestly growing tax revenue. In full-year 2016 tax revenue realization reached IDR 1,105.2 trillion (approx. USD $83 billion), only 81.6 percent of the target that was set in the Revised 2016 State Budget (APBN-P 2016) but slightly higher than tax revenue realization in the preceding year.

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After the Constitutional Court had already confirmed earlier this week that Indonesia's tax amnesty program is not in violation of the nation's constitution, there occurred a second reason for celebration related to the tax amnesty program: the total of declared assets up to Wednesday (14/12) had surpassed the government's target of IDR 4,000 trillion (approx. USD $301 billion), about 3.5 months before the end of the program. Despite this success there remains reason for pessimism.

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Throughout the year 2016 the economy of Indonesia was plagued by major challenges stemming from abroad. In fact, most countries around the globe have been busy to soften the impact of low global economic growth on the local economy. In the case of Indonesia, authorities have unveiled a series of 14 economic policy packages aimed at improving investment, trade and purchasing power. Although it remains difficult to implement these packages in full force (due to the low quality of human resources at the local government level or conflicts of interests), they have helped to push Indonesia's economic growth into higher gear.

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In the October 2016 edition of its flagship Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) report, titled "Easing Pressures", the World Bank is positive about Indonesia's improved fiscal management and its impact on the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The Washington-based institution projects Indonesia's economic expansion at 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2016. However, it emphasizes that external risks (sluggish global economic growth and global market volatility) continue to pose a threat.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has become slightly less optimistic about Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2016. Bank Indonesia revised down its growth projection to below the 5 percent (y/y) mark for Q3-2016 (from an earlier forecast of 5.2 percent). However, the lender of last resort still expects to see a better performance compared to the 4.73 percent (y/y) pace posted in Q3-2015. Meanwhile, low inflation and a strong rupiah could result in another interest rate cut in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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At its latest monthly policy meeting the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its interest rate regime unchanged with the benchmark BI rate at 6.50 percent (this month the bank is set to adopt the seven-day reverse repurchase rate - reverse repo - as the new benchmark rate). Bank Indonesia's decision to leave interest rates unchanged was a surprise move given that the nation's inflation is low, the rupiah is strengthening, but overall economic growth has remained sluggish. This context would actually justify a moderate interest rate cut of 25 basis points.

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