The Indonesian government revised down its target for the country's manufacturing growth in 2014 to 6 percent year-on-year (yoy) from 6.4 to 6.8 percent (yoy) previously. Main reason for the downgrade was the lower than expected GDP growth result in the first quarter of 2014. Earlier this week, Statistics Indonesia announced that the Indonesian economy expanded 5.21 percent in Q1-2014, the slowest quarterly growth pace since the fourth quarter of 2009. Last year, Indonesia's manufacturing sector grew 6.19 percent (yoy).

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The government of Indonesia has been preparing strategies to face Japan's possible complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) about Indonesia's recently introduced export ban of mineral ore (UU Minerba No. 4 - 2009). A special team from Indonesia's Trade Ministry, headed by Gusmardi Bustami, has been set up to handle the dispute. Japan feels forced to bring the export ban case to the WTO because its industry is highly dependent on the supply of certain raw Indonesian commodities, particularly nickel.

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Head of Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik or BPS) Suryamin said that inflation in April 2014 is estimated to be low or will turn into deflation as food stockpiles in a number of regions are sufficient amid the peak of the harvest season. Suryamin based his estimation on BPS monitoring conducted from 17 April. The monitoring indicated that prices of the main food commodities (which include rice, chili, chicken meat, cooking oil as well as beef) are stable or even declining from the previous month.

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The government of Japan is most likely to file a complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) about Indonesia's recently introduced ban on the export of mineral ore (UU Minerba No. 4 - 2009). Although the WTO is yet to receive a formal letter of protest, Indonesian newspaper Investor Daily reported on Friday (04/04) that Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi has already received a letter from Japan's Minister of Foreign Affairs in which the step was announced. Japan feels forced to bring the case to the WTO as its industry is affected by the ban.

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After recording three months of consecutive trade surpluses at the end of 2013, Indonesia's trade balance slipped back into deficit in January 2014. Indonesia - Southeast Asia's largest economy - posted a USD $430.6 million deficit in the first month of 2014. Exports fell 5.79 percent (year-on-year) to USD $14.48 billion, while imports fell 3.46 percent to USD $14.92 billion. The decline in exports were caused by the implementation of the ban on raw minerals (per 12 January 2014). Mineral ore exports fell over 70 percent (month-to-month).

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Whenever Indonesia Investments discusses or illustrates the risks that are involved in Indonesia’s investment environment, we usually take the 2009 Mining Law as an example to illustrate the lack of legal certainty in Indonesia. Lack of legal certainty is one the key obstacles in Indonesia’s investment environment, and has therefore been undermining investment realization in Indonesia.

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An interesting story was released on Bloomberg Markets Asia on Wednesday (29/03) about the sliding role of commodities in the Indonesian economy and the need for Southeast Asia's largest economy to find a new growth engine (or better: several new growth engines) that will take the country to economic growth levels of +7 percent year-on-year (y/y) as once pledged by Indonesian President Joko Widodo during his presidential campaign in 2014.

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Uncertainty about the continuation of the company's copper concentrate exports could imply that Freeport Indonesia needs to terminate operations at the Grasberg mine in Papua. Currently, shipments of copper concentrate from the mine to the smelter in Gresik (East Java) have ceased, while the company's storage facilities are full to the brim. Part of workers at the Grasberg mine have been sent home as the processing plant has not been producing any concentrate since Friday (10/02).

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On Thursday (12/01) the government of Indonesia said it eased regulations concerning the controversial ban on exports of metal ore and concentrates of other minerals. Based on the New Mining Law that was revealed in 2009, Indonesian shipments of mineral ore would be banned starting from January 2014. This policy was designed in order to boost the development of domestic processing facilities (smelters) and become an exporter of value-added mining products (hence becoming less vulnerable to volatile prices of raw materials).

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Indonesia is currently discussing the revisions that need to be made to the 2009 Mining Law (Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining). As there is a lack of progress with the development of smelting (processing) facilities in Indonesia, authorities may decide to postpone the full implementation of the ban on exports of unprocessed mineral ore by five years. Initially, this ban was supposed to come into effect in January 2014. However, it was pushed back to 11 January 2017 to allow more time for smelter development in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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It remains unclear whether Indonesia will revise the export ban that is stipulated by the 2009 Mining Law (Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining) and is supposed to come into effect on 12 January 2017. The 2009 Mining Law stipulates a ban on the export of unprocessed and semi-processed ores from Indonesia. The regulation aims to boost development of the nation's smelting capacity, hence becoming an exporter of materials that are positioned higher up in the value chain while curbing Indonesia's current dependence on exports of raw materials.

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Freeport Indonesia has requested for a recommendation from Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources to obtain another six-month permit for the export of copper concentrate. The existing permit expires on 8 August 2016. Since Indonesia's ban on mineral ore exports was implemented in January 2014, Freeport Indonesia - subsidiary of US-based natural resources company Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc - has been required to obtain six-month permits in order to continue shipments of copper concentrate.

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According to the Association of Indonesian Processing and Refining Companies (AP3I), consumption of mineral ores in Indonesia will be solid starting from 2017 due to the start of operations of new smelters. Jonathan Handojo, Vice Chairman of the AP3I, says domestic consumption of nickel ore will reach 7 million tons in 2017, roughly the same amount of nickel ore that was exported in 2009 before the New Mining Law - which stipulates a ban on exports of mineral ore from Indonesia (per January 2014) - was revealed.

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The government of Indonesia is yet to find a middle way between encouraging the development of processing facilities for the country's mining output and the relaxation of mineral ore exports. Based on Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (New Mining Law), exports of mineral ore should have been fully banned in 2014. However, due to the lack of domestic smelting capacity a last-minute regulation was signed in early January 2014 by former Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono that softened this ban.

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After the word spread that the government of Indonesia will reevaluate its export ban on mineral ore, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced it will soon open room for exports of iron sand (a type of sand with heavy concentrations of iron). Bambang Gatot, Director General for Coal and Minerals at the Energy Ministry, said exporters will have to pay export duties but declined to inform about the exact amount. He did say, however, that the mechanism will be similar to the export duty mechanism used for other concentrate exports (including copper) in the "post-New Mining Law era".

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