In line with expectation and the historic trend, Indonesia’s car sales rose - on a monthly basis - in June 2015 ahead of the Idul Fitri celebrations (that mark the end of the Islamic holy fasting month). Car sales in Indonesia usually increase ahead of Idul Fitri (also known as Lebaran), a tradition which involves the exodus of millions of Indonesians from the cities to their places of origin. Before the journey to the villages a portion of these travelers are eager to buy a new car, a decision often influenced by promotional campaigns and discount programs.

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Car sales in Indonesia have declined 17 percent to 443,328 units in the first five months of 2015 according to the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Manufacturers Association (Gaikindo), hence providing further confirmation that consumer demand has continued to fall amid the country’s slowing economic growth, depreciating rupiah and accelerating inflation. Car sales are one of the key indicators to measure people’s purchasing power as well as the general state of the economy.

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Being the barometer of the Indonesian economy - due to the company’s presence in various sectors of the economy - the financial performance of Astra International in the first quarter of 2015 provides valuable information about the current condition of the Indonesian economy (ahead of the official release of the country’s Q1-2015 GDP growth). As Astra’s net profit and revenue declined 15.6 percent and 9 percent, respectively, from the same quarter last year, investors’ concern about the country’s Q1-2015 GDP growth figure is justified.

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General Motors Indonesia (GM Indonesia), the local unit of the US-based General Motors Company, made a loss of about USD $200 million in the years 2013-2014 due to higher operational costs while sales did not grow accordingly. The company was unable to compete with its dominant Japanese rivals, led by Toyota Motor. These were the main reasons behind the company’s decision to close its assembly plant in Bekasi (East of Jakarta) by mid-2015 (implying the dismissal of 500 employees).

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Indonesian car exports may reach 310,000 vehicles in 2014, a 12.72 percentage point growth from last year (275,000 vehicles). Exports of completely built up (CBU) units are expected to number 200,000 while completely knocked down (CKD) units are estimated to reach 110,000 units by the year-end. Indonesian Industry Minister MS Hidayat confirmed that the automotive industry of Indonesia has shown good performance. Currently, Indonesian automotive products are exported to a total of 80 countries.

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The national automotive industry of Indonesia recorded export growth of 10.4 percent in the first quarter of 2014 (year-on-year). Statistics Indonesia said that exports in the automotive industry (which includes automobiles and motorcycles) were worth USD $1.27 billion in the first three months of the year, compared to USD $1.15 billion in the same period in 2013. However, the automotive industry of Indonesia only contributes 3.49 percent to the country's total non-oil & gas exports.

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Indonesia Investments updated the company profile of Astra Otoparts. This company, which is a subsidiary of Astra International, is Indonesia’s leading automotive component company. It produces and distributes spare parts for both motorcycles and cars. Astra Otoparts is supported by seven business units, fifteen consolidated subsidiaries, and eighteen associates and jointly controlled entities. A number of these subsidiaries or affiliated companies are joint ventures with prominent component manufacturers from Japan, China, Europe and USA.

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Indonesia Investments has updated the company profile of Astra International. The company is the largest Indonesian company that is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in terms of market capitalization. Although Astra International (ASII) is a diversified conglomerate that is present in most major sectors of the Indonesian economy, the majority of its revenues still originates from its dominant position in Indonesia's automotive industry. The company controls about 54 percent of the country's wholesale car market.

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Car sales in Indonesia grew 8.2 percent (year-on-year) to 111,767 vehicles in February 2014 according to the latest data from the Association of Indonesian Automotive Manufacturers (Gaikindo). As usual, car sales were dominated by Toyota, Daihatsu (both are distributed by Astra International, one of Indonesia's largest diversified conglomerates), Mitsubishi, Suzuki and Honda. February sales were supported by the popular low-cost green car (LCGC) that was introduced on Indonesia's market in 2013.

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Indonesia remains an important sales market for Toyota, Japan's multinational corporation and one of the world's largest automobile manufacturers. In 2013, Toyota sold a total of 8.66 million cars worldwide, around 435 thousand of which were sold in Indonesia. The company which holds the exclusive right to sell Toyota units on the Indonesian market is Astra International, one of the largest diversified conglomerates in Indonesia. With a market share of 35 percent, Toyota is the dominant market leader in Indonesia's car sales market.

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Many – including Indonesia Investments – are convinced that the electric vehicle is the automotive industry’s future. And, when we take a look at the past two decades or so, we detect a significant acceleration in the development of the electric vehicle.

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The biggest problem for western car-makers is the dominant position of Japan in Indonesia's automotive market. Japan has been dominating the Indonesian car market since the 1970s and there are no signs that this situation will change in the short or long term.

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The government of Indonesia eyes rapid growth of car exports in the two decades ahead. By the year 2035 the government targets to see car shipments from Indonesia rise to 1.5 million vehicles (from around 200,000 exported units in 2016). By that year, exported vehicles should contribute 37.5 percent of total Indonesian car sales.

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A new player in Indonesia's automotive industry - backed by big carmakers from China and the USA - is eager to compete for market share in Indonesia. On Tuesday (11/07) SGMW Motor Indonesia inaugurated its first manufacturing facility in Cikarang (West Java). This local company is a joint venture between (1) SAIC Motor Corporation Ltd, a Chinese state-owned automotive design and manufacturing company headquartered in Shanghai, (2) General Motors Company (GM), a US multinational automotive corporation headquartered in Detroit, and (3) Liuzhou Wuling Automobile Industry Co Ltd, a China-based car manufacturer.

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Indonesia's automotive industry is centered around Bekasi, Karawang and Purwakarta in West Java. In this area various big global car-makers invested in industrial estates as well as car and component manufacturing plants. Therefore, it has become the production base of Indonesia's automotive sector (including motorcycles) and can be labelled the "Detroit of Indonesia". Detroit (Michigan, USA) is the birthplace of the US automotive industry and is home to car giants General Motor, Chrysler, and Ford.

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In early 2016 Ford Motor Indonesia, the local unit of American car-maker Ford Motor Company, announced it will have completed its exit from Indonesia (and Japan) by the start of 2017. This decision was made because Ford has been unable to compete with its Japanese counterparts on the markets of Indonesia and Japan. The sudden move to exit Indonesia was not warmly welcomed by Ford Motor Co's dealers in Indonesia. The 31 Ford local dealerships demanded USD $75 million in compensation. More recently, Ford Motor Indonesia has become the center of a tax scandal.

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About a week ago Ford Motor Indonesia, the local unit of American car manufacturer Ford Motor Company, announced it decided to exit Indonesia and Japan as the firm is unable to compete with its Japanese counterparts. The Ford dealers in Indonesia are still open, meaning consumers can still buy the existing stock of Ford cars. Ford buyers can also still count on after-sales services or the purchase of spare-parts. Next year, however, these stores will be shut. Ford is still studying how to continue services (including guarantee) after 2017 for those that bought a Ford vehicle.

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The Indonesian government approved the request of Indonesia's automotive sector to be exempted from the anti-dumping duties that have been imposed on imports of steel from specific countries. Through Finance Ministry Regulation No. 65/2013 on Anti-Import Duties, the government set import duties - ranging between 7 and 55.6 percent - for steel imports from China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam in an effort to protect the domestic steel manufacturing industry amid a global steel oversupply (particularly caused by a supply glut in China).

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Whereas the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), expects Indonesia's car sales to rise five percent (y/y) in 2016 on the back of improving economic conditions, US-based consulting firm Frost & Sullivan expects to see a 4.3 percent decline in the country's car sales this year as continued rupiah depreciation and persistently low commodity prices undermine Indonesians' purchasing power.

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Both car sales and motorcycle sales declined in 2015 in Indonesia. Primary reason for this decline was people's weaker purchasing power amid the slowing economy and persistently low commodity prices. Indonesia's GDP growth is estimated to have fallen to 4.7 percent year-on-year (y/y), the slowest growth pace since 2009. Meanwhile, amid the sluggish global economy (especially China's slowdown) and falling oil prices, Indonesia gains relatively little from its commodity exports.

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