Although at a slower pace, Indonesia's manufacturing activity continued to contract in January 2016. According to the latest Nikkei survey, the Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 48.9 in the first month of 2016 from a reading of 47.8 in the preceding month (a reading below 50 signals contraction in the manufacturing sector). It was the 16th consecutive month of contraction in Indonesia's manufacturing sector as domestic and global economic growth remains subdued.

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In rupiah terms, foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia increased by 19.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 365.9 trillion in 2015, according to the latest data from the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM). The BKPM, the central government's investment services agency, said FDI was strong in the fourth quarter of 2015 - rising 26 percent (y/y) - on the back of the government's recently unveiled series of economic stimulus packages.

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The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), the central government's investment services agency, targets to see a 15 percent growth to IDR 594.8 trillion (approx. USD $43 billion) in investment realization in 2016 supported by an improving investment climate in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Franky Sibarani, Head of the BKPM, said the government is particularly eager to see sharp growth in investment realization in the country's manufacturing sector, in infrastructure, services and trade, and in the raw resources industry.

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The latest survey from Nikkei showed that Indonesia's manufacturing sector contracted for the 15th straight month. In the last month of 2015 factory activity in Indonesia showed a reading of 47.8, improving from a reading of 46.9 in November but remaining stubbornly below the 50.0 level that separates contraction from expansion. Since October 2014 Indonesia's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) has been in contraction.

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The food sector is one of the sectors within Indonesia's manufacturing industry that continues to lure foreign investors. This statement is based on the latest report of the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), the investment services agency of the Indonesian government, released in late December. The agency notes that applications by investors for principle licenses in the food sector in the period 1 January to 28 December 2015 were worth a total of IDR 184.9 trillion (approx. USD $13.5 billion).

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Indonesia's Ministry of Industry is optimistic that the country's manufacturing industry will grow 5.7 percent (year-on-year) in 2016, up from the estimated 5.3 percent growth pace this year. Indonesian Minister Saleh Husin said this optimism is based on higher domestic direct investment. Domestic investment realization in Indonesia's industry sector rose 7.45 percent (y/y) to IDR 20.1 trillion (approx. USD $1.5 billion) in the third quarter of 2015 from IDR 18.7 trillion in the same quarter last year. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia's industry sector stood at USD $3.15 billion in Q3-2015.

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In line with estimates, Indonesia posted 0.08 percent (m/m) deflation in October 2015. Deflation was primarily caused by lower food prices in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Annual inflation eased to 6.25 percent (y/y) and is expected to ease more markedly in the last two months of the year as the impact of last year November's subsidized fuel price hike will be swept away from inflation figures. Indonesia's core inflation - which excludes volatile food and administered prices - was 5.02 percent (y/y) in October.

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On 4 October 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as the government and Bank Indonesia’s new economic policy package, an update of inflation and manufacturing activity, US interest rates the impact of El Nino on coffee and palm oil production, and much more.

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In Indonesian media more and more (unofficial) information circulates about the third installment of the government's economic policy package. This third installment, which is expected to be unveiled next week by Indonesian President Joko Widodo, involves lowering prices of gas, diesel and electricity (for industries) to avert more layoffs in Indonesia's manufacturing industry. Meanwhile, the government may lower lending rates (by cutting unnecessary costs) in order to boost credit expansion in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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For the 12th consecutive month Indonesia's manufacturing activity contracted as output and new orders declined. The Nikkei/Markit purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 47.4 in September 2015 from 48.4 in the preceding month and below analysts' forecasts (a reading of 50.0 separates contraction from expansion). September's contraction was the second-fastest drop in Indonesia's manufacturing activity since the index was started in early 2012.

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As usual, we devote one article to the latest available (key) macroeconomic data in an effort to assess the state of the Indonesian economy. In the previous article in this month’s report, we discussed the 4.95 percent year-on-year (y/y) GDP growth rate of Indonesia in Q3-2024. In the article you are reading right now, we’re going to take a closer look whether the country’s economic growth can accelerate (or decelerate) in the last quarter of the year.

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The manufacturing sector is a strategic one for the Indonesian economy (albeit it is facing a number of major challenges). The Indonesian government therefore has high hopes and ambitions for the national manufacturing sector.

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Over the past five decades the Indonesian economy has evolved from one being highly dependent on agriculture to one in which industry and services dominate the national economy.

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After the surprise in February 2020 (when – contrary to expectations and in stark contrast to the global trend – manufacturing activity in Indonesia soared), matters turned normal in March 2020. In line with expectations, Indonesia’s manufacturing production and new orders contracted at record rates in March, making companies decide to cut back sharply on their purchasing activity and input inventories. Business conditions in fact deteriorated at a rate not seen before in the history of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey.

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An alarming report was released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) on 1 October 2019. In the report the WTO notes that ongoing global trade tensions, led by tariff troubles between the United States and China, are doing harm to global economic growth in ways not seen since the financial crisis one decade ago.

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Manufacturing activity in Indonesia increased in June 2019 albeit at a much slower pace than in the preceding month. Expansion in the nation’s manufacturing sector was dragged down by softer expansion in both production and new orders.

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Manufacturing activity in Indonesia improved in May 2019 due to an increase in output and new orders. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 50.4 in April 2019 to 51.6 in the following month, its highest position in nine months (a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction, while a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity).

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Based on the latest data from IHS Markit, the headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell modestly to a reading of 50.5 in October 2018 (from 50.7 in the preceding month). The reading represents a marginal improvement in the health of Indonesia’s manufacturing sector.

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Manufacturing activity in Indonesia expanded in September 2018. However, the pace of growth slowed compared to the preceding month. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined from August's 26-month high of 51.9 to 50.7 in September (a reading of 50.0 separates contraction from expansion in the manufacturing sector).

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Rising domestic demand caused Indonesia's August manufacturing activity to grow at the fastest pace in more than two years. As a result local manufacturing companies added new people to their staff. The headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) grew to 51.9 in August 2018 (up from 50.5 in the preceding month), further above the 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction in terms of manufacturing activity.

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