Indonesia's upstream oil & gas regulator SKK Migas said the nation's crude oil production in the first quarter of 2016 reached the average of 835,234 barrels per day (bpd), slightly above the target of 830,000 bpd that was set in the 2016 State Budget. This is positive news as it is rare for Indonesia to achieve its crude oil output target. In Q1-2016 the target was met due to the combination of a realistic oil production target and long-awaited crude production growth at Exxon Mobil Corp's Banyu Urip field (part of the Cepu Block in East Java).

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Indonesia expects to produce between 800,000 and 830,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2016. This range was agreed during a working meeting between Commission VII (which oversees the country’s energy sector) of the House of Representatives (DPR) and the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. The meeting was held in the context of deliberations on the 2016 State Budget. So far this year, Indonesia’s crude oil output stands at an average of 802,046 bpd (monthly basis). Domestic demand, however, stands at 1.43 million bpd.

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Indonesia may achieve its oil target of 900,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2015 as the Banyu Urip field in Cepu (East Java) is expected to start production in February next year. Indonesian upstream oil and gas regulator SKKMigas stated that the oil field has now been completed for 92.5 percent. The oilfield’s early production facility is already producing 30,000 bpd. This is expected to increase to 165,000 bpd once production has reached its peak in mid-2015. This peak level is estimated to last for three years.

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Indonesia’s crude oil production is expected to increase starting from mid-March 2015 as new oil fields will start to come online this month, including the Bukit Tua oil field (part of the Ketapang block in East Java and which is operated by Petronas Carigali). Over the past two decades Indonesia oil output has declined drastically amid maturing oil fields and the lack of exploration as well as other investments in Indonesia’s oil & gas sector. In 2014, Indonesia produced an average of 794,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd).

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It remains difficult for Indonesia to achieve oil production targets that are set by the Indonesian government. In fact, it is unlikely that Indonesia will meet this year’s revised oil lifting target of 818,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) as set in the Revised 2014 State Budget. In the first half of 2014, Indonesia recorded an oil production rate of 797,000 bpd only. For almost two decades, Indonesia’s oil sector has been in a state of decline, evidenced by falling production rates, due to a lack of investments and aging oil fields.

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