Crude palm oil (CPO) production in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decline due to the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon (that brought a prolonged dry season to Southeast Asia). CPO production in Malaysia could fall between 1.5 and 2 million tons this year according to Dorab Mistry, Director at Godrej International. Declining output in the world's two leading palm oil producers and exporters implies that palm oil prices should be able to rise further. At the start of this week palm oil futures traded in Kuala Lumpur (June delivery) rose to 2,779 ringgit (approx. USD $695) per ton, the highest level since March 2014.

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The new negative investment list 2016 is not yet issued by Indonesian President Joko Widodo. However along with the launch of the tenth economic policy package, the government is currently processing the new draft of this list. Although not yet issued, in this column we discuss the most likely changes to be implemented in the new negative investment list 2016. The current draft regulation removes 35 business fields form the negative investment list. Besides that, more business fields are reserved for small and medium sized companies (local companies).

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Net profit of Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN), Indonesia's largest natural gas transportation and distribution company, fell nearly 44 percent in 2015 as gas demand from the industry sector collapsed amid slowing economic growth. Weak demand caused sharply falling gas prices. Shares of PGN, a government-controlled company that is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, plunged nearly 50 percent over the past two years amid the global commodity slump. So far this year shares of the company have fallen 4.74 percent.

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Bank Indonesia's decision to cut Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) gradually from 7.50 percent at the year-start to 6.75 percent in March should lead to rising credit growth in Indonesia as borrowing costs have become less expensive. Bank Mandiri, Indonesia’s largest financial institution by assets, should see its financial performance improve due to the looser monetary policy. For Trimegah Securities the new context was reason to revise its forecast for net profit and net interest income of Bank Mandiri, a state-controlled entity that is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (the central government owns a 60 percent stake).

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