Indonesian Rupiah & Stocks Fall on Economic Concerns and Oil Price
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated on Wednesday (14/01) as global oil and other commodity prices continued to fall thus casting a negative spell on Indonesia’s currency. The rupiah depreciated 0.11 percent to IDR 12,614 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Market participants are concerned about the negative influence of low commodity prices on Indonesia’s export performance. Southeast Asia’s largest economy has had to cope with a wide trade and current account deficit in recent years.
Most emerging Asian markets were down today due to the combination of falling commodity prices (specifically oil and copper) and the downward revision of the World Bank’s outlook for economic growth in 2015. In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank announced that it expects the global economy to grow three percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015, down from its previous estimate of 3.4 percent (y/y). Similarly, its growth forecast for economic growth in 2016 was revised down from 3.5 percent (y/y) to 3.3 percent. Investors reacted to this news by selling assets in (riskier) emerging markets and instead seek for safe havens such as the US dollar.
The market is also waiting for the results of the central bank’s Board of Governors’ Meeting which will be held on Thursday (15/01). Although initially most analysts estimated that Bank Indonesia is to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.75 percent, there has been increasing speculation about an interest rate hike to support the rupiah exchange rate, combat inflation and curb the current account deficit.
However, Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) appreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 12,580 per US dollar on Wednesday (14/01).
| Source: Bank IndonesiaMeanwhile, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) fell 1.05 percent to 5,159.67 points.
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