Bank Indonesia Expects Trade Deficit in April and Low Inflation in May
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects to see a trade deficit in the month of April 2014 due to a significant increase of imports (around 11 percent month-to-month), while prices of a number of important export commodities have been under pressure (including coal and crude palm oil). Governor of Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo said that weak demand from China impacts negatively on the trade balance. Bank Indonesia's statement contradicts the institution's earlier statement which hinted at a surplus of USD $600 million in April.
Regarding May 2014 inflation, Bank Indonesia predicts low inflation (0.09 to 0.1 percent month-to-month).
On Monday 2 June 2014, Statistics Indonesia will release various economic data, including the April 2014 trade statistics and May inflation as well as manufacturing.
Indonesia's Trade Balance 2014 (in billion US Dollar):
| 2014 | Export | Import | ||||
| Month | Oil & Gas | Non Oil & Gas | Total | Oil & Gas |
Non Oil & Gas | Total |
| January | 2,50 | 11,97 | 14,47 | 3,55 | 11,37 | 14,92 |
| February | 2,73 | 11,90 | 14,63 | 3,46 | 10,33 | 13,79 |
| March | 2,64 | 12,57 | 15,21 | 4,01 | 10,53 | 14,54 |
| Jan-Mar | 7,87 | 36,45 | 44,41 | 11,02 | 32,22 | 43,25 |
Indonesia's Trade Balance 2013 (in billion US Dollar):
| 2013 | Export | Import | ||||
| Month | Oil & Gas | Non Oil & Gas | Total | Oil & Gas |
Non Oil & Gas | Total |
| January | 2,66 | 12,72 | 15,38 | 3,97 | 11,48 | 15,45 |
| February | 2,57 | 12,45 | 15,02 | 3,64 | 11,67 | 15,31 |
| March | 2,93 | 12,09 | 15,02 | 3,90 | 10,99 | 14,89 |
| April | 2,45 | 12,31 | 14,76 | 3,63 | 12,83 | 16,46 |
| May | 2,92 | 13,21 | 16,13 | 3,43 | 13,23 | 16,66 |
| June | 2,80 | 11,96 | 14,76 | 3,53 | 12,11 | 15,64 |
| July | 2,28 | 12,81 | 15,09 | 4,14 | 13,28 | 17,42 |
| August | 2,72 | 10,36 | 13,08 | 3,67 | 9,34 | 13,01 |
| September | 2,41 | 12,29 | 14,70 | 3,72 | 11,79 | 15,51 |
| October | 2,72 | 12,99 | 15,70 | 3,47 | 12,20 | 15,67 |
| November | 2,77 | 13,17 | 15,94 | 3,70 | 11,21 | 15,15 |
| December | 3,41 | 13,58 | 16,98 | 4,22 | 11,24 | 15,46 |
| Jan-Dec | 32,63 | 149,93 | 182,57 | 45,27 | 141,36 | 186,36 |
Source: Statistics Indonesia
Inflation in Indonesia:
| Month | Monthly Growth 2013 |
Monthly Growth 2014 |
| January | 1.03% | 1.07% |
| February | 0.75% | 0.26% |
| March | 0.63% | 0.08% |
| April | -0.10% | -0.02% |
| May | -0.03% | |
| June | 1.03% | |
| July | 3.29% | |
| August | 1.12% | |
| September | -0.35% | |
| October | 0.09% | |
| November | 0.12% | |
| December | 0.55% | |
| Total | 8.38% | 1.39% |
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
| Inflation (annual percent change) |
9.8 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 8.4 |
Source: Statistics Indonesia
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