Car Sales Indonesia Update: Falling on Weak Purchasing Power

Car sales are an important indicator to measure the condition of a local economy as these sales provide valuable information about people's consumer confidence and purchasing power. Generally, declining car sales and declining economic growth go hand in hand. Indonesians' purchasing power is also curbed by the country's high inflation rate. Over the past two years, Indonesian inflation has been high due to subsidized fuel price reforms as well as imported inflation due to the weak rupiah. In September 2015 inflation stood at 6.83 percent (y/y), down from 7.18 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Toward the year-end, inflation is expected to ease more markedly (to between 4 - 5 percent) as the impact of the November 2014 subsidized fuel price hike wanes.

Economic Growth and Car Sales Statistics Indonesia:

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015¹
GDP² (in billion USD)	432.2	510.2	539.6	755.1	893.0	917.9	910.5	888.5
GDP² (annual % change)	6.3	6.0	4.6	6.2	6.2	6.0	5.6	5.0	4.8
GDP per Capita² (in USD)	1,861	2,168	2,263	3,125	3,648	3,701	3,624	3,492
Car Sales (in million units)		0.61	0.49	0.76	0.89	1.12	1.23	1.21	0.98

^{¹ indicates a forecast
² the base year for computing the economic growth rate shifted from 2000 to 2010 in 2014, previous years have been recalculated
Sources: World Bank & Gaikindo}

In the first nine months of 2015, Indonesian car sales stand at a total of 764,119 units, down 18.1 percent from cars sold in the same period last year (932,458 vehicles).

Despite the slowdown, Deputy Chairman of Gaikindo Jongkie Sugiarto was pleased to see the nation's September car sales and hopes to see solid sales in the remainder of the year. However, Gaikindo has already cut its forecast for 2015 car sales twice, from an initial 1.2 million to 1.1 million, and then to the range of 950,000 - 1,000,000 cars.

Indonesian Car Sales (CBU):

Month	Sold Cars 2012	Sold Cars 2013	Sold Cars 2014	Sold Cars 2015
January	76,427	96,718	103,609	94,194
February	86,486	103,278	111,824	88,740
March	87,917	95,996	113,067	99,408
April	87,144	102,257	106,124	81,600
May	95,541	99,697	96,872	79,375
June	101,746	104,268	110,614	82,171
July	102,511	112,178	91,334	55,618
August	76,445	77,964	96,652	90,077
September	102,100	115,974	102,572	92,478
October	106,754	112,039	105,222
November	103,703	111,841	91,327
December	89,456	97,706	78,802
Total	1,116,230	1,229,916	1,208,019	764,119

^{Source: Gaikindo}

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