Danareksa Institute: Indonesian Consumer Confidence Declined in June

The main reason for weaker consumer confidence in June was that respondents of the survey, involving 1,700 households across Indonesia, are concerned about a shortage of job availability and shortages of fertilizer in several regions. Respondents are also less likely to purchase durable goods in the months ahead as they are less optimistic about Indonesia’s economic prospects.

Economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest slowed to 5.21 percent (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2014. For full-year 2014, the economy is expected to grow about 5.4 percent, implying that the country’s economic growth has been slowing since 2011.

Inflation, which had accelerated sharply after prices of subsidized fuels were raised in mid-2013, has been easing since the start of 2014. Earlier this week, Statistics Indonesia announced that inflation had declined to 6.70 percent (yoy) in June 2014 (from 7.32 percent yoy in the previous month).

Indonesia's Quarterly GDP Growth 2009–2014 (annual % change):

Year	Quarter I	Quarter II	Quarter III	Quarter IV
2014	5.21
2013	6.03	5.89	5.62	5.78
2012	6.29	6.36	6.16	6.11
2011	6.45	6.52	6.49	6.50
2010	5.99	6.29	5.81	6.81
2009	4.60	4.37	4.31	4.58

^{Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS)}

Gross Domestic Product of Indonesia 2006-2013:

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
GDP (in billion USD)	285.9	364.6	432.1	510.2	539.4	706.6	846.8	878.0
GDP (annual percent change)	5.5	6.3	6.1	4.6	6.1	6.5	6.2	5.8
GDP per Capita (in USD)	1,643	1,923	2,244	2,345	3,010	3,540	3,592	-

^{Sources: World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Statistics Indonesia (BPS)}

 
Inflation in Indonesia:

Month	Monthly Growth           2013	Monthly Growth           2014
January	1.03%	1.07%
February	0.75%	0.26%
March	0.63%	0.08%
April	-0.10%	-0.02%
May	-0.03%	0.16%
June	1.03%	0.43%
July	3.29%
August	1.12%
September	-0.35%
October	0.09%
November	0.12%
December	0.55%
Total	8.38%	1.99%

 

	Inflation Rate       June 2014	Inflation Rate   Calender 2014	Inflation Rate   year-on-year
General	0.43	1.99	6.70
- Core	0.25	1.88	4.81
- Administered Price	0.45	2.37	13.47
- Volatile	1.06	2.22	6.74

 

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Inflation (annual percent change)	9.8	4.8	5.1	5.4	4.3	8.4

^{Source: Statistics Indonesia}

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