Export of Indonesian Crude Palm Oil Rises due to Increased Demand

For Indonesia it is important that exports of CPO and derivatives will rise because it is one of the country's most important (non-oil & gas) export products. Indonesia is currently the largest producer and exporter of palm oil worldwide, followed by Malaysia. Together, these two countries account for around 85 to 90 percent of total global palm oil production. An improving palm oil sector will also reduce pressures on Indonesia's trade balance and current account. The large trade deficit is partly the reason why Indonesia had been categorized as being one of the 'fragile five', a term coined by Morgan Stanley and which describes five countries whose economies rely mostly on capital inflows to sustain currency and economic stability. With global funds becoming more expensive amid the US Federal Reserve tapering policy, these five countries (Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, India and Brazil) will thus face more difficulty to attract global funds.

Indonesian Palm Oil Production and Export:

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013¹
Production (million metric tons)	16.8	19.2	19.4	21.8	23.5	26.5	27.5
Export (million metric tons)	n.a	14.2	15.5	15.6	16.5	18.1	20.0
Export (in USD billion)	n.a	15.6	10.0	16.4	20.2	21.6	23.0

^{¹ indicates forecast
Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki) and Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture}

Executive Director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) Fadhil Hasan confirmed that global demand for Indonesian CPO and derivatives has increased, particularly from India, Pakistan, Africa and the European Union. Meanwhile, domestic demand has risen due to the government's recently-introduced biodiesel program. Through this program the government raised the mandatory amount of palm oil (fatty acid methyl ester) blended in biodiesel from 7.5 percent to 10 percent. For power plants that use biodiesel the amount has been increased to 20 percent. This year, Indonesia is expected to use 3.3 million tons of CPO for its biodiesel program. Regarding the future, Hasan paints a promising picture of the Indonesian palm oil sector and expects that it will continue - and probably expand - its important role within the Indonesian economy. As global demand for energy and food rises steadily and continuously, CPO will expand its significance.

Analysts argue that the international CPO price may surpass the level of USD $1,100 per ton in 2014. The CPO price in Rotterdam, a benchmark CPO price in global markets, plunged to USD $745 per ton in July 2013 but has recovered ever since although is still far away from its record high of USD $1,407.5 per ton in March 2008.

The Indonesian government intends to expand the plantation area for CPO production in order to reach the CPO production target of 52 million tons by 2020.

Listed Indonesian CPO Companies' Financial Results Q1-2014 (in billion rupiah):

	Revenue			Net Profit
Company	Q1-2014	Q1-2013	% Growth	Q1-2014	Q1-2013	% Growth
Astra Agro Lestari	3,725	2,723	36.7	784.6	356.3	120.2
Austindo Nusantara Jaya	398.2	409.2	2.7	44.6	44.2	0.9
Dharma Satya Nusantara	1,238	799.2	54.9	149	21.6	589.8
Gozco Plantations	85.4	68.2	25.2	-8.4	4	-310
Jaya Agra Wattie	214.7	164.9	30.2	30.3	27.6	9.7
PP London Sumatra Indo.	1,279	912	40.2	223.6	100.5	122.4
Provident Agro	244.4	152.5	60.2	85.2	26.4	222.7
Sampoerna Agro	649.6	585.5	10.9	55.4	22.9	141.9
Salim Ivomas Pratama	3,171	3,096	2.4	192	99.8	92.3
SMART	9,072	5,589	62.3	888.2	553.1	60.5
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana	524.2	435.3	20.4	196.1	148.8	31.7
Tunas Baru Lampung	1,158	873	32.6	131.9	77.8	69.5
Bakrie Sumatera Plant.	659.2	481.3	36.9	296.8	-62.9	571.8
Total	22,418	16,289	37.6	3,069	1,420	116.1

^{Source: Investor Daily}

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